2024, a difficult year for the Turkish economy; The lira will fall again

According to the report of the international group Tasnim News Agency, the year 2023 is gradually It is coming to an end and most of the economic research centers and market experts in Turkey are summarizing and evaluating the statistics that can provide an analysis of the current year’s situation and also tell what conditions the people of this country will have for the next year. .

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leader of the Justice and Development Party, a few days ago, in response to reporters’ questions about inflation, he gave a short answer and promised that he would do something soon. That this issue does not become a hot topic of news and everyday conversations of people and media.

Of course, he promised 6 months ago during the presidential election that he would fix everything quickly and bring the dollar much lower than 20 lira. But it didn’t happen and now there are only a few kuros left until the dollar reaches 29 lira. /1402/07/07/1402070716470739328449414.jpg”/>

Black year is coming

Erdogan government’s economic team announced that in the future news It will be for the people. However, the forecast of economists and Turkish market experts shows that in the coming year, the number of bankrupt industrial and commercial units will face a serious increase.

One ​​of the topics The important thing that occupies the minds of Turkish economic analysts and experts is trying to find this question: in the situation where there is no way to increase production and exports, how will the Turkish economy cope with heavy domestic and foreign debts and increased production costs? Can it endure?

The reports of independent research institutes in Turkey that continuously provide statistics and The figures of trade and production and consumption are monitored, indicating that the fear of not repaying the debt and the increase in the amount of outstanding debts have strongly affected the psychological mood of the Turkish market.

Companies that used to make loans with to receive low interest rates, this year, both inside and outside, they were completely disappointed. Because the bank interest rate went up and now they often have problems with financing and are experiencing difficult times.

The problem of overdue loans due to rate increase Profits in banks are still increasing and only in the figures of September, the amount of unpaid loans exceeded 160 billion liras.

Professor Sh Danger waiting for housing, energy and industry sectors

Banks are facing the risk of not being able to collect the billions of lira loans they gave in the past.Construction, energy and production industries are among the sectors that have taken the most loans from banks and are now unable to repay.

According to the data of Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency,BDDK, total cash loans provided by banks to Sectors approached 10 trillion and 871 billion liras in September 2023.

This amount in the same period last year is about It was 7 trillion liras.

The Cumhuriyet newspaper, in a report, pointed out that most of the outstanding loans are in the hands of the sectors that employ the most workers in have authority As a result, their bankruptcy will result in the highest increase in the unemployed population. Because, for example, the housing sector has 4% of outstanding loans, and the energy sector, with a debt of 5.3%, is in a situation where in the future, it will have to put pressure on its customers and gas subscriptions. , electricity and gasoline and oil rates will go higher and higher again.

Deferred loans in the sectors of production, distribution and electricity, gas and water resources industry are about 18 billion and 72 million liras and this amount has increased to 23 billion and 443 million liras in the same period of this year.

Also in the period of September 2023, the amount Overdue loans in the construction sector increased to 25 billion and 679 million liras. At the same time, the amount of outstanding loans in the wholesale and retail sales and motor vehicle services sector increased to 17 billion and 982 million liras, and the tourism sector, despite the large revenues it earned this year, between 6 and 7 billion liras, It has outstanding debts.

One ​​of the most important problems of the Turkish government in the last 3 years is the continuous growth of inflation and the weakening of the lira against the dollar. Forecasts show that this situation will worsen in the coming year.

It is a new currency in Turkey.

He believes that as a result of the continuous interventions of the former management of the central bank, the wages of employees did not increase in direct proportion compared to inflation, and the problem of accumulated inflation in Turkey

Even though that time has passed and now no one interferes in the monetary policy of the central bank, the effects and consequences of Erdoğan’s previous mistake still continue.

It looks like there will be a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting at the end of October. This meeting will be the last rate hike for 2023, but it looks like high interest rates will continue until 2024, when we barely make ends meet.

The dollar will maintain its international value for a long time and the pressure of the euro will also affect the Turkish economy.

Right now, the rate announced for the dollar is a The rate is not real and natural. Believe me, the current real value of the dollar against the lira is about 45 lira! But the ruling party, because of the March 31 elections, won’t let the spring go.

My expectation is that the dollar rate will reach 35 lira by the March 31 elections. I repeat again; The real value of the dollar is currently around 45 lira. When you add the effects of inflation in 2024 to this rate, the real value of the dollar will exceed 60 lira around June 2024.

According to Gacher, a period of complete monetary contraction in Turkey is waiting and in this period, there will be great economic problems.

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