Did the Republic of Azerbaijan remove Georgia from the new regional cooperation?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, after the end of the second Karabakh war Azerbaijan proposed a new form of cooperation in the region with a joint initiative with Turkey. This format was called 3+3 (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Turkey, Iran).

Georgia did not participate in these meetings in the framework of 3+3 and announced that because The occupation of own lands cannot be in a joint form with Russia. But despite this, Azerbaijan still called the format 3+3 at the official level.

On November 16, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan stated in the statement of US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien during the hearings. The European sub-committee of the Foreign Relations Committee of the House of Representatives announced that Azerbaijan confirms once again that the 3+2 format (Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey-Russia-Iran) is the priority of the region’s security.

That is Azerbaijan officially announced for the first time that it does not see Georgia in this format. In this context, it should be kept in mind that these days the “Bastion” armored military vehicles that France gave to Armenia were delivered from Georgia. It can be assumed that this angered Baku and unexpectedly announced the 3+2 format, while Georgia insisted that it would not participate in this format.

Rauf Mirgadirov, an Azeri political commentator, explained this issue and stated: Basically, the 3+3 format is a dead format in itself. Georgia has never participated in that format, and the foreign minister of the neighboring country has clearly said that he does not intend to participate in this format in the future. Until the cause of occupation of Georgian lands by Russia is not eliminated, it will continue in this way.

At the same time, this expert does not think that Azerbaijan will somehow express its displeasure with the passing of vehicles. French military to inform Armenia through Georgia to Tbilisi.

Mirkadyrov noted: Whether we like it or not, Azerbaijan’s objection to other countries regarding the sale of weapons is both futile and counterproductive. It seems like common sense. Because every country has the right to strengthen its defense capabilities and update its weapons arsenal.

According to him, Baku’s statements about selling arms of France, India and other countries to Armenia It is incomprehensible and cannot be justified in terms of international legal standards.

Rauf Mirgadirov believes that such a situation cannot lead to the cooling of relations between Azerbaijan and Georgia. Currently, Azerbaijan’s access to the whole world passes through Georgia. We are talking about oil and gas pipelines. On the other hand, if we talk about the land connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey, I don’t think that Baku will completely depend on Iran.

Current political elites are not going to close Azerbaijan to the world or On the contrary, to close the world for Azerbaijan. At the same time, Georgia is also dependent on Azerbaijan in terms of energy carriers. So I don’t think a step will be taken that will cause serious disagreements.

He asked whether when James O’Brien considered Azerbaijan’s agreement with Iran unacceptable and announced that the project would fail, Did America show serious dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan or not? He said that America is unhappy with Azerbaijan’s avoidance of peace talks with the mediation of the West.

As a result of the local military operations of September 19-20, the response of Karabakh was much milder than we expected. Reactions were heard only at the level of statements. Even when French President Macron was asked about sanctions against Azerbaijan, he answered that sanctions are not an issue, they are in favor of continuing dialogue with Baku.

This political analyst explained his opinion. He emphasized: It is important for the West to continue negotiations and sign the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But the increasing negative attitude of America and the West towards Azerbaijan caused Baku to stay away from negotiations. The first case was Ilham Aliyev’s refusal to meet Nikol Pashinyan in Granada. Macron’s pro-Armenian policy was shown here. But in the meeting with Charles Michel in Brussels, he has created serious doubts. During the same period, Western envoys, including the United States, made many visits to Baku.

Rauf Mirgadirov says: It is possible that during these visits, Baku seriously prepares for the possibility of signing an agreement. peace with the mediation of the West has not shown. This has increased the tension in the relationship. In such a situation, Armenia also avoided the formats in which Russia participated, and Nikol Pashinyan refused to travel to Russia. Having said that, he clearly said that he gave Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization time to clarify the alliance’s relations with Armenia. These two factors show that progress in signing the peace agreement in both formats is doubtful in the near future. I generally do not believe that the peace agreement will be signed before the end of the year.

This political commentator, who shared his opinion on the direction of the processes in the background of what happened, noted Currently, there is a time-out for a specific period.

He believes: Azerbaijan’s foreign policy will try to take a drastic turn next time, which I think will be temporary. Relations with the Iranian government are complicated and unstable. Considering the anti-Azerbaijani statements made by Iran’s ambassador in Yerevan, Sobhani, after the meeting between the presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan, it can be said that there is no stability in relations, and this reduces the effectiveness and value of the passage through Iran. That is, if there is tension, Tehran can close the road at any moment.

Rauf Mirgadirov emphasized: I still do not think that the current problem in relations between Baku and Washington will be long-term. In fact, this is a US warning to Azerbaijan. Everything depends on what channels and tools Azerbaijan will use in the near future in connection with the West.

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