The forecast of the International Monetary Fund about the impending collapse of the German economy

– International news – Tasnim News Agency According to German Focus magazine, the International Monetary Fund has reported that the German economy is currently the third largest economy in the world. Is. But why and what does this mean for the future of Germany?

The Japanese newspaper Nihon Keiza Shimbun (“Nikkei”) reports that new data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that the German economy this year AD has surpassed Japan. In 2000, Japan was the second largest economy in the world, and as of 2010 it was the third largest economy in the world after the United States of America and China. The improvement is less a matter of pride and more of a concern. Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 0.5 percent this year. In Germany, consumption is falling and vital exports are weakening.

The worse news is that since the end of World War II, Japan and Germany have in many ways suffered an almost identical fate. Therefore, Japan’s new weakness can easily be understood as bad news for the Federal Republic of Germany.

According to Business Insider, one of the main reasons for Japan’s economic woes is that its society is increasingly It is getting old. Due to a combination of improving living conditions, increased life expectancy and declining birth rates, the number of working people in Japan has been steadily declining since 1995.

Germany will experience a similar situation. did It is predicted that by 2030, five million German citizens will retire more than the number of working people. Blum, Harvard economists, this demographic change is likely to reduce German economic growth by about 0.9 percent annually. has experienced below 0.9% in the past two decades, there may be about six years of recession in the same period in the future. In that case, roughly every three years would be a recession, meaning that growth would no longer be possible.

In addition to demographic changes, according to Handelsblatt, the weak http://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/currency” target=”_blank”>The exchange rate and low inflation compared to other parts of the world have also affected Japan’s economic figures.

The most likely future scenario is that neither Japan nor Germany will soon occupy the third place in the world economy list. Due to its young population, India currently has an economic power of about 3.73 trillion US dollars and is growing at a rate that Japan and Germany can only dream of.

German newspaper Handelsblatt reported in another report He wrote: The recent ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany regarding the debt brake could have significant consequences for economic development in Germany. The imminent loss of government funding, which was supposed to come from the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) and the Economic Stability Fund (WSF), will have serious consequences. Instead of the 1.3% predicted by the federal government, economic growth in 2024 could be just 0.3%.

This is the conclusion of Klaus Mikkelsen and Simon Juncker, economists from the Research Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (VFA). ) and Ferdinand Fichtner of the Berlin University of Applied Sciences (HTW) calculated.

These three scientists have worked for many years on evaluating the overall economic effects of policy measures and were previously in the economic team of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). .

Germany’s Federal Statistics Office also announced on Friday that the gross domestic product in the third quarter decreased by 0.1 percent compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for price, season and calendar.

Inflation, which remains relatively high, puts pressure on consumers. They can afford to pay less and many people are limiting their spending.

Furthermore, Germany’s export industry is feeling the effects of a weak global economy. In total, 0.8 percent less than the second quarter of 2023, fewer goods and services have been exported.

According to this survey, investments will be hit the hardest in the shadow of the budget impasse.

Last week, the Federal Constitutional Court dealt a severe blow to the fiscal policy of the German federal government. Karlsruhe had decreed that emergency loans could not be used for other purposes to circumvent the debt brake.

This is exactly what the coalition government had done, about €60 billion of He wanted to use the Corona loans for other purposes. Over the next few years, the federal government wants to subsidize chip factories, upgrade the hydrogen grid, or rebuild railroads, among other things. With this ruling, the government had to remove 60 billion euros from its budget fund.

end of message/