The danger of Trump’s re-election lurks in Europe

– International news – Tasnim news agency, the German newspaper “Handelsblatt” in an article on the danger of the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States as a great threat to the European Union He wrote: Trump clearly says that if he succeeds in returning to the White House, he will impose large tariffs on goods imported from Europe and paralyze NATO. His goals will be a disaster for European relations.

This article continues: January 20, 2025 is a date that seems very far away. Donald Trump can go back to the White House on Inauguration Day and change the world. Of course, the former US president has not yet been nominated by his party, the Republicans. But in the Republican primaries, which begin in January, Trump is the favorite, while at the same time Joe Biden has suffered a decline in popularity even in his popular states.

“Peter Ruff” The European director of the conservative Hudson think tank told Handelsblatt about this: It is repeatedly claimed that Donald Trump is too polar to win the US presidential election. But I doubt it. The data shows that Trump actually has a chance. A second term for Trump is more likely than ever.

Still a lot can happen between now and Election Day on November 5, 2024, the US presidential campaign is unpredictable: uncertainty about Sen about Biden’s ability to govern could mean he ends up not being nominated by Democrats. Trump may be sentenced to prison. Or, in Washington, it is also possible that no candidate will win a majority on Election Day and that powerful third parties will unexpectedly plunge the United States into a constitutional crisis.

If Trump manages to return to the White House, there is a risk of unbridled politics at all levels. His main theme is revenge: “The final battle is about to begin,” Trump shouted in front of thousands of supporters during the campaign, invoking the rhetoric of the National Socialists. According to Ruff, the undiluted and undistilled version of Trump is likely to be reflected mainly in his trade and foreign policy – areas that affect Europe the most.

One of these areas is trade and the economy. Is. When it comes to deregulation, Trump is better for many companies, says an American chief executive of an industrial company. “But in terms of planning security, it’s not good for us,” he explains.

He emphasized: “With Trump, we never knew what was going to be done in the future, and if you As a company, you have to decide whether to build a factory that will open in the next few years, so you need stable framework conditions. “Inconsistent Macro” and according to him, this is precisely why Trump’s return to the White House will be very dangerous for the American economy and the world economy. He announced that Trump wants a fixed rate of at least ten percent. impose punitive tariffs on all goods imported into the United States—this would particularly affect the European Union as the United States’ second-largest trading partner. Trump said he wants to put a ring of fire around the United States.

Tariff rates currently average three percent but in the case of China it is 19 percent. Foreman told the Handelsblatt newspaper: “Trump’s initial tariffs will start a global trade war that could be worse than anything we’ve seen so far.” It will be done, he warned. Accordingly, higher tariffs would increase inflation, hurt US manufacturing and prompt trading partners to raise their own tariffs as well. The American Chamber of Commerce also warned: “Other countries will not simply accept tariffs.” Surrounding Trump are rumors of plans to cut the corporate tax rate from the current 21 percent to 15 percent. This would further increase the US budget deficit, warned Foreman.

Business expert Rick Bratberg explains that when it comes to industrial policy, Biden and Trump are not that far apart. But Trump is distancing himself from everything Biden says, even though Republican-controlled states are seeing high levels of investment.

Trump also provided a list of smaller NATO countries to his office aides in his first term. He read out loud, which he said most Americans had never heard of. But despite his threats to withdraw the United States from this military alliance, he always seemed to have advisers dissuading him from such escalation.

In a possible second term, he is likely to This will not be avoided. Mark Esper, Trump’s former defense secretary, said in an interview with Handelsblatt: “Trump is likely to withdraw a number of American forces from allied countries, starting with Germany and trying to withdraw the United States from NATO.” Peter Ruff However, the US Congress, which has supported NATO for almost 75 years, will block the withdrawal, says Hudson’s European director. Trump can weaken NATO in other ways. “If the Russians conquer Ukraine and attack countries like Estonia, NATO will die.

Then the Americans will have to choose: do we send troops or do we abandon NATO’s security architecture? Trump could choose the latter. It’s more likely that he could cause NATO to collapse, Ruff explains.

Rolling Stone magazine reported that Trump plans to reduce involvement in NATO to the point where the United States is only on standby. According to Ruff, Trump is unpredictable when it comes to Ukraine. He swings like a pendulum between aggression and isolationism. At one point he threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine, then announced that if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire, he would “shower Ukraine with money and weapons.” Roff, of course, said: “Trump does not like to be embarrassed or pushed into a corner on the world stage. Not everything about Trump’s foreign policy is automatically bad for Europeans. It cannot be denied that Trump had “a certain deterrent effect on Putin”.

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