5 scenarios after the Gaza war

According to the report of Fars News Agency International Group, the current war of the Zionist regime against the Gaza Strip, like the previous wars, is a violent type of Tel Aviv’s policy against the Palestinians, which aims to declare the destruction of the military and civilian power of Hamas and the formation of a “system” “Madani” began under the shadow of military control over the Gaza Strip, similar to the situation in the West Bank. But the evaluations of Israeli research centers and international political circles indicate that Tel Aviv does not have a clear strategy regarding the Gaza Strip after the current war.

In this regard, it was a few days ago that the spokesperson of the US Ministry of Foreign Affairs spoke openly about the difference of opinion between this country and the Zionist regime regarding the future of Gaza and clarified Netanyahu’s recent statements regarding the Israel’s stay in Gaza differs from the White House’s view.

He responded to Netanyahu’s statement, which emphasized the necessity of the occupying army remaining in the Gaza Strip and disarming it: “Our view about the future [of Gaza] is this, not occupation, not The displacement of the residents and not the re-control of Hamas over it”. The day after the war, several scenarios are presented in this regard.

The first scenario: Israel, as an occupying force in the Gaza Strip, takes over its military control; Such an action can lead to the emergence of a new armed resistance. In addition, the occupying forces should be required by international law to grant obligations to the residents under occupation. This is beyond Israel’s financial capabilities considering the economic impact that Tel Aviv received following the Al-Aqsa storm operation and the high costs of the current war. In addition, if this step is implemented, Israel will take responsibility for the largest detention center in history.

The second scenario: The return of the Palestinian Authority to rule in Gaza; The weak point of this scenario is the weakness and ineffectiveness of the self-governing organization headed by Mahmoud Abbas and its unprecedented low popularity among Palestinians, which is due to the corruption and weak performance of this institution. In addition, the self-governing organization will be viewed as an institution that has benefited from the martyrdom of 15,000 Palestinians, the displacement of hundreds of thousands of others, and the destruction of 80% of homes, health and medical organizations, businesses and various infrastructures.

This scenario can be implemented if elections are held in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and Quds to elect a new leader. But what reduces the chances of this scenario’s success is Tel Aviv’s action in disrupting the geographical and political unity of the Palestinian territories. This requires the pressure of influential countries in the international community to convince Tel Aviv to hold the said elections.

Third scenario: Local civil administration; A plan proposed by some strategic studies institutes in Israel. This requires the formation of a Palestinian civil administration composed of representatives of Gaza residents, including mayors and civil society figures associated with the Palestinian Authority. A scenario that will be met with Palestinian resistance, as opposed to the formation of village associations formed by the head of Israel’s civil administration, Menachem Melson, in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Fourth scenario: Arab Administration of Gaza; Proponents of this scenario demand the formation of a joint government from several Arab countries (or from the Arab League), with the cooperation of the Palestinian Authority for the temporary management of the Gaza Strip; Of course, with the focus of weakening the Muslim Brotherhood, because according to them, Hamas was born from the heart of a country with a Brotherhood approach and is considered one of its arms. However, considering the high human casualties. Among Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israel’s indiscriminate bombing and destruction of its infrastructure, it is unlikely that the Arab countries will accept the risks of this role due to the possibility of failure and inciting the anger of the people of these countries who are ready to take to the streets in support of Gaza, because this is probably They consider the option a conspiracy against the Palestinians.

The fifth scenario: Formation of a political system supported by Hamas. This scenario is presented with the assumption that the Hamas movement will prevent any political initiative in which it is abandoned. Hamas has informed the Egyptians that it is ready to negotiate unconditionally with any Palestinian or Arab side about the future of the Gaza Strip after the end of the war. In parallel, Hamas is looking for a partner among the dissidents who broke away from the Fatah movement, possibly going to Nasser al-Qadwa, who was removed from the Fatah central committee, or Samir al-Mashrawi, the deputy head of the reform movement in Fatah, both on November 22. In the past, they met Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political office in Cairo.

In the statement after this meeting, it was announced that regarding the internal situation of Palestine, the methods of interaction with the variables related to the war against the Palestinian people, organizing the Palestinian home based on clear principles, with the aim of Defeating the plans of the invaders and its goals was discussed at all field and political levels.

According to this report, the purpose of creating such an image in Cairo is “to create a formula for coexistence that is conducive to security not to cause harm to the Egyptian nation, the Palestinians, and Israel, and Egypt’s official vision is based on the idea of ​​implementing comprehensive national reconciliation in Palestine and forming a technocrat government. Salam Fayyad, the former prime minister of the [Self-Governing Organizations] of Palestine, is among the proposed names during a transitional phase for 3 years in It can be seen”. A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8% AF%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8% B1-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%BA%D8%B2%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF”> More details)

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