Israel has lost so far; Both the field and diplomacy

Fars News Agency International Group – Note – Vahid Samadi: Since its establishment, Israel has had at least 9 major wars and several smaller wars. But international observers do not remember that Israel has suffered such a multi-faceted defeat as it has suffered so far in the October 2023 war.

This is not a slogan. If we summarize all aspects of the defeat in two dimensions, it must be said that Israel has failed both in the military field and in the diplomatic field until today, until the 70th day of the war, and we must wait and see the end of this war.

Loss in the military field

The Equation of Two Unequal Powers

First of all, before we need to review the details of the field process along the Gaza strip (which is 41 km), it should be accepted that In a war between two forces with disproportionate power, if the weaker power is not destroyed, it means victory. In the sense that one side is the classical and well-armed Israeli army, which has modern equipment and advanced technology, as well as air, sea and ground support, and has a 24-hour airlift of American weapons. On the other hand, it is a people’s liberation group that does not have an air force or a navy, makes its own weapons and equipment, and is deprived of support. In such a situation, when the superior power enters the scene with all its strength and officially declares that its goal is to destroy the weaker power, but it does not succeed, from a military point of view, that is, the defeat of the superior power and the victory of the weaker power, because it has preserved its existence.

Now in the field of the Gaza Strip, not only is Hamas not in 100% danger of its existence after 70 days – or at least there is no such assessment so far – but thanks to the tunnel city and precise war strategy and tactics, it is successful

In the past week, the Israeli army has been fighting in several axes, including Shujaiyeh neighborhood in the east of Gaza City (North The Gaza Strip, which brings back bad memories of 2014 for Israel, suffered several ambushes and killed about 50 people, of which almost a third has been admitted. At least two of them were battalion commanders.

The three-stage ambush in Shujaiyeh

So the result of the process of 70 days of war is that the stronger force (that is, the Israeli army) has failed and, to put it better, has failed. This result clearly belongs to the war “until today” and it is not clear which way the field process will go tomorrow or the days after, and the scene may change in favor of one of the conflict parties at any moment.

Losing in the field of diplomacy

Comparison of two paintings from Israel’s situation

At first, we summarized all dimensions in two dimensions: field and diplomatic. If we sum up all the sub-branches of the second (diplomatic) dimension, it can also be divided into two fields: the political field of war and the field of public opinion.

To explain that Israel in the second dimension also failed, first, let’s look at two paintings from the political arena:

The first painting; When the world saw the 7th of October and Israel still did not digest the blow and was confused, unprecedented support from the West, especially some Israel-friendly countries, poured into Tel Aviv. According to Alan Feld, a member of the Israeli institute “Vintage Investment Partners” (with more than three billion dollars in capital), “world leaders expressed their unprecedented support, and the Israeli flag was raised over public centers around the world.” Alan means that US President Joe Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Rishi Sonak and German Chancellor Olaf Schultz personally went to Israel to express solidarity and support for Tel Aviv.

The second panel; Two months have passed since the war. Nearly 20 thousand civilians were massacred in Gaza. (To be more precise, it was a genocide). Israel killed a person so boldly that his friends were also heard. Israel’s friends, including America, Germany and England, advised with diplomatic language, fight and kill so that we can continue the support. The hospital was bombed. The place where the refugees gathered was bombed. Schools and centers belonging to the United Nations where people gathered to be safe were bombed. Therefore, friends of Israel such as Joe Biden and others in Europe, fearing domestic public opinion and for various legal and political reasons, intensified their criticisms, and today we are witnessing a sharp decrease in diplomatic support for Israel. According to the Israeli newspaper “Calcalist”, “Today, Israel is seen as killing the civilian and weak residents of Gaza, and Israel is the killer of Palestinians.” On the other hand, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who said at the beginning of the war in a precise speech that Hamas’ action on October 7th “did not come from a vacuum”, for the first time since 2006, activated Article 99 of the UN Charter to stop the war in Gaza. to warn about the danger of world peace; An act that upset Israel. As the comparison of these two paintings shows, Israel has also given up the field of diplomacy.

It is quite clear that the level of global solidarity with Israel is increasingly decreasing at both the political and public opinion levels. The best indicator in the political field is the combination of votes on the recent draft resolution that America vetoed in the Security Council in favor of Israel. In the draft of this resolution that Egypt and Mauritania presented to stop the war; First: They rejected the request and insistence of the United States to enter the sentence of Hamas. Second: 153 countries voted for it and only 10 negative votes were given, two of which were the United States and Israel. 8 countries that voted against it, or in better words, voted to continue the war, include a few small countries that many may not even have heard of; These eight countries agree: Nauru, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, Liberia, Guatemala, Paraguay, Austria and the Czech Republic. Only two European countries are on the list of supporters of Israel, and if we ignore three minor countries, in fact only five countries supported Israel. 5 to 153. Even countries that had abstained in the previous draft, which was given on October 27, voted in favor of Israel this time, such as Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia. In the recent draft, countries such as Great Britain, Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Slovakia and even Ukraine and Germany abstained. This means that Israel does not expect any European country, it expects 100% support from Germany and Ukraine. The same 153 votes in favor, and the same 10 votes against, passed the non-binding resolution against Israel. Maybe the resolution itself has no operational value, but it is a good indicator to show the sharp decrease in the level of support for Israel in the current diplomatic arena.

Israel has lost public opinion so far

The same is true at the level of public opinion. Demonstrations continue in America, England, Italy, Germany, France and other countries. These pressures have changed the positions of the leaders of America, England and other countries. To the extent that Biden – even for electoral reasons or any other reason – has changed his tone towards Israel and the British Foreign Minister has told Tel Aviv to round up the extremist settlers who are endangering the security of Israel and Palestine at the same time, or else the responsible Israeli authorities In this case, he will be banned from entering the UK.

Opinions against Israel at the youth level, such as in American universities, or in social networks and cyberspace, have increased so much that the presidents of several American universities They are held accountable for appeasing anti-Israeli protests, or the Calcalist newspaper admits that “in the last two weeks, many Israeli activists in cyberspace have spent their time confronting the anti-Israeli atmosphere in global social networks. Many people are working seriously to deal with this situation, but these… are not enough in front of the world public opinion”. It is the 70th day of the war; A failure that did not require seventy days to see, but happened on the very first day, October 7th, and even killing two million innocent people in Gaza will not be compensated.

end of message /p