A look at the results of provincial council elections in Iraq; Why are the recent election results important?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the elections After more than 10 years have passed since the last local elections, provincial councils in Iraq were finally held last Monday, 12/18/2023 (Azar 27), in all the other 15 provinces of Iraq, in order to compete for 285 seats, except for the Kurdistan Region provinces.

Provincial councils in Iraq were created after the overthrow of Saddam in 2003 and their task was to elect regional governors and manage the budgets for health, education and transportation. Provincial council elections were held last week in 15 out of 18 Iraqi provinces after this break, and the three provinces of Erbil, Dohuk, and Sulaymaniyah in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region are also scheduled to hold separate elections next year.

In this election, 10 seats were allocated to Iraqi minorities, including Philistine Kurds, Turkmen, Chaldeans, Sabaeans, Christians, Yazidis, Assyrians, and Armenians. These minorities make up 5% of the country’s population according to the latest assessments of the Iraqi Ministry of Planning. The provincial council elections were held in a safe and stable environment, and the Independent Supreme Election Commission of Iraq announced its final results last Thursday. Stating that the final results are subject to review, the Iraqi Election Commission noted that receiving protests started on Friday and will continue until the end of the office hours on Sunday. Many analysts believe that the successful holding of these elections is a test to test the process of democracy in Iraq; Because the connecting link of the upcoming parliamentary elections is at the beginning of 2025 and will determine the balance of political powers in the future. Holding these elections after establishing political and security stability after years of war against terrorist groups will also be a serious test for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani.

The success of the Shia coalition in the provincial council elections

based on the final results announced by the Supreme Election Commission of Iraq, Arab forces and parties Shiites under the banner of “Coordination Framework” achieved significant success in these elections, especially in the south and center of Iraq, and were able to capture the most seats in most provinces. This has caused some to consider this issue to strengthen the control of this coalition over the political life of Iraq. “Nabani” led by Hadi Al-Amiri 43 seats, “State of Law” coalition led by former Prime Minister Nuri Maliki, 35 seats, “Government Forces” coalition led by Ammar Al-Hakim 24 seats and “Meli Progress” coalition led by ex-president Mohammad Al-Halbousi The Iraqi parliament won 21 seats.

In this election, which was boycotted by the Sadr movement led by Moqtada al-Sadr, 5904 people won 275 seats. They competed for the seat. Meanwhile, it is said that after the announcement of the results in 9 central and southern provinces of Iraq, now, two lines and trends have been formed. The first trend is the victorious organizations, which are headed by the current governors, and the second trend or line is the forces affiliated with the coordination framework coalition, which currently holds the majority of the parliament. For example, in the provinces of Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Basra, Babol, as well as Wasit, this coalition won good votes and in terms of the number of seats, they were among the top four parties or coalitions. The most prominent of these coalitions are “Nabani” led by Hadi Al-Ameri, the “State of Law” coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki, and after them the coalition of “National Government” forces led by Ammar Al-Hakim and Haider Al-Hakim.

in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, whose votes are of particular importance; The “Government of Law” and “Nabani” coalitions were at the top of the list with 9 seats out of a total of 52 seats, followed by the “Tadegh” coalition led by Mohammad Al-Halbousi. In Dhi Qar province, Nabani coalition won 5 out of 18 seats, followed by the government of law coalition with 4 seats and the national government forces also won 2 seats. At the same time, in Anbar province, Tadagh coalition won the most seats. After that, prominent parties such as “Al-Siadeh” (Sovereignty) and “Azm” faced the general popularity of Baghdad residents. In the province of Basra in the south of Iraq, the “Decision” coalition led by the current governor, Asad Al-Aidani, won first place.

success Arabs and Turkmens in Kirkuk and disputed areas

in Dhi Qar and Maysan provinces also “Nabani” coalition led by Hadi Ameri won the most seats; While in al-Muthani province, the “rule of law” coalition led by former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki won the most votes. In the northern provinces of Iraq, “Jamahir” party and “Tadegh” party were able to get the most votes in Salah al-Din province. In the province of Nineveh, centered in Mosul, the coalition “Nineve Lahlha” (Nineveh for its people) took the first place, and after that, the Kurdistan Democratic Party took the second place. In the city of Kirkuk, the Arab and Turkmen parties witnessed significant successes compared to the Kurds, which will complicate the process of electing the provincial officials of this oil-rich and disputed city, especially if a large coalition is not formed in the provincial council to determine the main positions. .

The Iraqi provincial council elections were held while at first contradictions appeared in the statistics of those eligible for the provincial council elections, especially the actual number of people who are 18 years old. And the criteria for the participation of eligible people to participate in the elections was changed from the general index of “age” (eighteen years) to the condition of “obtaining an election card” and the same issue has created doubts and doubts about the real ratio of participants to those who are eligible. brought These uncertainties started when Jumana Al-Ghalai, the spokesperson of the Supreme Election Commission of Iraq, announced on September 14, 2023: the total number of eligible voters in the elections is more than 23 million voters, but those who have registered and received their biometric cards There are more than 16 million people, and another two million people whose cards will be issued soon, so that the number of people eligible to vote will reach 18 million people, on the other hand, 5 million citizens will not be able to participate in voting because they do not have a biometric card.

In this regard, on October 22, 2023, the Independent Supreme Election Commission of Iraq once again announced that 16 million 158 thousand 788 people in Iraq by obtaining ” “Election card” are eligible to participate in the 2023 provincial council elections. This commission finally announced on the 19th of December 2023 that 41% of eligible people (6,599,668 people) participated in the provincial council elections.

Such statistics caused the monitoring and polling centers to have two types of statistics and percentages for people’s participation, one of which is based on the calculation of eligible candidates announced by the 2023 Election Commission, and the other is the percentage and rate of participants based on those eligible for the election.

According to the statistics based on the indicators of the total number of eligible people, the participation rate of the people of Baghdad province is 17.7% and the residents of the 9 Shiite provinces of Iraq are 28.43% and the residents Sunni and mixed provinces have been estimated in the provincial council elections on December 18, 2023. According to this type of statistics, compared to the elections of the fifth term of the House of Representatives of Iraq (2021), the people of Baghdad province have 41.55% and the people of 9 Shiite provinces of Iraq have had a 25.83% decrease in participation in the elections of Iraqi provincial councils (2023). But the people of five Sunni and mixed provinces increased their participation by 22.55%. Another issue that has not had an impact on the statistics and should not be overlooked is the boycott of the elections by Moqtada Sadr and the protest movement known as “Tashreen”.

Now, considering the announcement of the final results of the elections in the shadow of its boycott by the Sadrid movement led by Moqtada Sadr, the emergence of a kind of political apathy in Iraq, as well as different views and attitudes about the elections and the way the elected officials act, it can be said that the type and Their way of functioning in the provincial councils will be like a double-edged sword, in the sense that if the elected officials, especially in the important and rich provinces of Iraq such as Basra and Kirkuk, act successfully and can build trust; The period of relative stability in Iraq will be strengthened, and the Sudanese government will be assured of holding parliamentary elections and completing its prime ministerial term, and can, by changing priorities, pay more attention to the issue of public services, pay attention to the unemployment rate, and fight widespread corruption in Iraq. different places, including some government institutions, should be concentrated. are unable to provide services to the citizens, holding these elections will be considered unnecessary and a tool to institutionalize corruption and will generally affect the legitimacy of Iraq in the future and will endanger the political system of this country. Especially, some people (whose number is not small) do not have a good attitude towards the provincial councils and believe that these councils are another ring of corruption, looting of the treasury and the domination of influential people over projects and investments throughout the provinces and holding these elections. And specifying the elected provincial councils will only impose billions of dinars on the government.

On the other side of the issue and the other edge of the razor, the way the elected officials may act may lead to the expansion of the front of boycotting the elections in the future and harm the political and democratic process and undoubtedly lead to unfortunate consequences for the upcoming elections of the House of Representatives. have As a result, now the ball is in the electorate’s court, which means that they have done what they wanted by taking over the seats and positions in the absence of the boycotters. have arrived, but the important point is that if they do not behave well and do not make sufficient efforts to serve the citizens; This will be the last chance in front of them and if time is lost, there will be no regrets.

end of message/