Georgia remains confused between Russia and the West

According to the international group Tasnim News Agency, the idea that the ruling party of Georgia’s dream as a The pro-Russian party and its founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has become a permanent stereotype in Georgia and the West as a pro-Russian politician. The above statement is constantly repeated by the opponents of Georgia, experts and media of the world.

The apparent reasons for this can be understood. Georgia did not join the anti-Russian sanctions, refuses to send weapons to Ukraine, and does not allow some anti-Russian dissidents and journalists to enter the country. He has been praised for these positions. Also, Georgian authorities constantly accuse Western countries and Ukraine of trying to bring this country into an armed conflict with Russia. In other words, the Georgian authorities are saying that if war is the price of joining the European Union, “we don’t want it“.

However, if the measures To be honest with the Georgian authorities, there is no reason to claim that Tbilisi is acting in the interests of Moscow. This means that the reasons for the tension inside Georgia and the conflict with Brussels and Kiev should be looked for elsewhere.

What it is not >

The latest wave of accusations of pro-Russian behavior against Georgian officials came in March, when mass protests took place in the country against attempts to pass a law on foreign agents.

One of the main slogans of the protesters was: “No to Russian laws”. This law was actually similar to the law in Russia. But the protesters also gave another meaning to this slogan, and that was to accuse the Georgian authorities of following and adopting policies aligned with Russia. However, these accusations are relatively unreal and created by the opponents of the government and the ruling party. This is the country. If we look at the actions of the Georgian authorities in the last few years, it is difficult to find any pro-Russian steps among them.

In 2023, the country has no diplomatic relations with Russia. The absence of air communication lines between the two countries, condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine, defending and supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and declaring a positive vote in UN resolutions in favor of Ukraine are examples of the actions of the current Georgian government in moving against Moscow’s approach.

During the protests of the past few months, many, including the country’s president Salome Zurabishvili (who came to power thanks to Ivanishvili’s support), recalled that the path to Euro-Atlantic integration was written into the Georgian constitution.

Thus, the critics pointed out the violation of the constitutional requirements by the authorities and the ruling party, but looking back, we can see that during the 2018 reforms, this bill moved towards European structures exactly with the activities of the Georgian Dream Party. The constitution of this country has been added.

This is true that the country’s movement towards the European Union and NATO was made by the former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, but the process of Georgia’s integration into European structures has been vigorously pursued by all subsequent parties and governments in this country.

Another stereotype related to the ruling party. It is that Georgia does not comply with the Western sanctions against Russia, which, of course, is due to the statements of the Georgian authorities: they have repeatedly said that the country will not join the sanctions against Russia, but in practice this is not the case. In July of last year, the US State Department published a report stating that Georgia regularly complies with international sanctions imposed against Russia.

Reasons for the pragmatism of Georgia’s dream

Perhaps the main source of accusations against the Georgian government of favoring Russia is its attempt to establish pragmatic relations with Moscow. This approach has not occurred in recent months. For example, in 2015, during the opening of a NATO training center in Georgia, Irakli Garibashvili, the current prime minister of the country, emphasized: “The activity of the NATO military training center will not be against Russia in any way,” but according to the policies of rapprochement with the West, the opening This center is essential.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the leaders of Georgian Dream have repeatedly stated that they will not allow the opening of a “second front” against Russia as long as this party remains in power, because They believe that sending weapons to Ukraine is a definite red line for Moscow.

For members of the current government and the ruling party, 2022 has shown how unpredictable Russian foreign policy can be, and Moscow’s violent response to The March protests were a reminder that Georgia is very vulnerable to threats from Russia, much more so than Ukraine. They consider themselves the first victims of Russian imperial ambitions in the post-Soviet space. The fear of Moscow’s policies is reinforced by the fact that every time Georgia’s leadership takes an overly pro-Western path, the country’s relations with Moscow become increasingly strained, either when Russia starts supporting separatists or when the military enters the war. It will end.

But what is important in this process is only Georgia staying and the lack of support from the western partners in this country’s confrontation with Russia.

On the other hand, the population of Georgia is also from The Russian side feels threatened. Fear that if Ukraine loses the upcoming war, Georgia could be the next target of the Russians. Both opponents of the government and its supporters agree on this security perception, as 72% of Georgians think so.

From the point of view of the Georgian society, there are different ways to respond to the Russian threat. According to polls conducted in the second half of last year, 36% of Georgians believe that a war with Russia can be avoided at the cost of compromise with this country, and this is exactly the approach that the ruling party of Georgian Dream proposes in how to interact with Russians. .

On the other hand, 22 percent of Georgian people disagree with this view. The rest of the people in the poll either do not know how to answer this question or believe that the risk of war with Russia is too remote.

At the same time, the majority of people still believe that the Georgian authorities are too conservative with The Russians interact. Polls in March show that more than 60 percent of Georgians want Georgia to show more support to Ukraine in the war with Russia, and half of the respondents agree that Tbilisi should provide weapons to Kiev. The increase in aid to Ukraine can be explained by the fact that for some Georgians, the war between Ukraine and Russia is a kind of proxy war to restore their territorial integrity. An example of this should be seen in the presence of Georgian legionnaires, who form one of the largest foreign groups working in the Ukrainian army in the war with Russia. The Russian army from South Ossetia and Abkhazia should be included in the future peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by international institutions. At the same time, Georgians are against resolving their territorial disputes with the Russian-backed separatists of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force, and the absolute majority of them want to resolve the disputes through negotiation and dialogue.

Motives of the “Georgian Dream”

Protests in the former Soviet republics have long been viewed from the perspective of confrontation between the West and Russia, but the protests The March against the Law of Foreign Agents in Georgia was created with domestic origins and reasons.

In 2022, the Georgian dream faced a difficult question, how to ensure the future of Europeanization for itself, while entering into tension And not to quarrel with Moscow and at the same time be able to maintain its power.

Georgia’s dream was walking on the thin rope of this triad, which faced protests in March (March 1401) and after retaking the controversial law Foreign agents from the parliament ended the street protests. This means that Russia’s threat to Georgia is a real and objective threat. But the threat of the Russians does not negate the fact that the Georgian authorities can hide behind it and use this threat to solve their own problems and fight against rivals.

Last year, Georgia applied to join the European Union, but The European Commission granted the status of candidate countries only to Ukraine and Moldova and rejected the application of Georgia. Instead, the country received the “European perspective”, which included a list of 12 recommendations. A suggestion for better preparation and passing next year’s exam.

This was a strong blow to the ruling party and a clear sign of the European Union’s dissatisfaction with the political situation in the country. The European Commission’s refusal provoked protests in this country.

In response, Georgia’s dream entered the confrontational stage and the country started preparations for the approval of the law on foreign agents. There are several reasons why the ruling party decided to do this. It seems that the simplest and most correct of these reasons was to limit the possibilities of the opposition and the independent media supported by the West to prevent as much as possible provoking the public opinion of Georgians.

Another explanation is a combination of different emotions, including The feeling of being underestimated or the dissatisfaction that Georgia was not given the candidacy for membership in the European Union rather than trying to negotiate with the European Union.

Eye Estimate 2024

Nevertheless, the spread of protests against the law of foreign factors did not lead to an increase in the popularity of opponents of the government and the ruling party of Georgian Dream. After the repeal of this law, the street activities quickly disappeared and everything returned to normal.

As usual, the March protests in Tbilisi were compared to the color revolutions and Ukrainian Square, and in a story and The global narrative became about how people were defending their desire to live in a Western democratic society, but there was no real drama in the protests. There was no tension in the crowd, but it was more like a people’s festival.

The efforts of the opponents of the government to ride the wave of protest and achieve the dissolution of the parliament did not reach anywhere. The opposition is not very popular in Georgia. It has been fragmented, marginalized and they have been using the same slogans for years. Polls conducted at the end of last year show that the Georgian Dream party still has a four-fold advantage over its opposition party, the pro-Saakashvili party. 25% of Georgia’s Dream Party against only 6% of Saakashvili’s party and the sum of the votes of other parties in the survey does not exceed 13%. According to the same survey, about 50% of Georgian people could not identify a party that but, despite such turmoil in Georgian society, they agree on one thing: the absolute majority – more than 80 percent – of Georgians want the country to be a member of the European Union.

Therefore, The success of Georgia’s dream in the 2024 elections depends more on what the European Commission says next year about the country’s membership in the European Union, and apparently they will accept Georgia’s request for membership this time.

Almost immediately after The cancellation of the foreign agents law, the crisis between Brussels and Tbilisi gave way to warming relations. Earlier in March, the British and German foreign ministers visited Tbilisi one after the other, and then it became clear that the European Commission was willing to grant Georgia candidate status. In this situation, the Georgian government only has to be careful not to take measures in the coming months that will keep the country away from the European Union.

It is clear that Brussels is not satisfied with all the political trends in Georgia now, but none There is no alternative force in this country that it can rely on, and therefore, the European Union is apparently ready to tolerate some of the authoritarian habits of the Georgian dream. Mehdi Saif Tabrizi – Russia researcher and South Caucasus

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