Has the economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan always been on the rise during the past 2 decades?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, since Ilham Aliyev for He was nominated for the presidency of Azerbaijan for the fifth time, many government officials of this country often praise his activities in the media. He is a representative of the National Assembly and the head of the Confederation of Azerbaijan Trade Unions (AHİK). In these years, the world has repeatedly experienced crises in various fields and there have been bloody wars that have had negative effects on the world economy and have serious consequences, but despite this, Azerbaijan’s economy has become irreversible and has continued to develop.

According to the belief of this member of the Parliament of Azerbaijan, since Elham Aliyev was elected as the president of Azerbaijan, there has never been an economic decline in this country and it has only developed!

In this report, we check the truth of this claim of this MP.

The figures published by the Azerbaijan State Statistics Committee (DSK) show that the statements of this member of parliament about sustainable economic growth in the Republic of Azerbaijan, even in times of crisis in the world, do not reflect the reality. During the presidency of Ilham Aliyev, several economic crises and declines happened in this country. /span>

The analysis of macroeconomic indicators related to the economy of Azerbaijan shows that the first serious challenge in economic growth was registered in 2011 during the years of Aliyev’s first presidency.

In that year, Azerbaijan’s GDP increased by only 0.1%, which means that Azerbaijan’s economy did not grow in 2011. During the presidency of Ilham Aliyev, the first serious economic crisis began in 2015. The main reason for this was the sharp drop in oil prices at the end of 2014.

Due to this devaluation, the central bank first tried to support the manat rate through its reserves, but in At the beginning of 2015, it was forced to reduce its value. Although until February of the same year, 100 dollars in Azerbaijan was 78 manats, from February it became 105 manats, and this did not prevent the fall of the manat. In December 2015, the decision to devalue the national currency was made in this country, and thus the manat lost 100% of its value during the year.

This devaluation decision led to the deterioration of all economic indicators of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Especially, the sharp increase in the price of imported products had a serious impact on people’s income. About a third of Azerbaijan’s banks were closed due to this crisis.

That crisis also melted an important part of the reserves of the central bank of this country. If in July 2014 the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank were 15.2 billion dollars, at the end of 2016 this figure decreased to only 3.9 billion dollars. That is, in about two years, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan lost about 75% of its reserves.

In 2015, the growth of Azerbaijan’s GDP was only 1.1%. In 2016, during the presidency of Ilham Aliyev, the GDP decreased for the first time in Azerbaijan. In that year, the economy of Azerbaijan decreased by 3.1 percent. In 2017, it was announced that the economy of Azerbaijan grew by only 0.2%. This means that this country could not get out of the crisis that year. /p>

The next crisis in the economy of Azerbaijan occurred in 2020. In that year, like everywhere in the world, the corona virus epidemic had a serious impact on the economic activities of Azerbaijan.

According to official statistics, the economy of Azerbaijan shrank by 4.2 percent in 2020. The economic recession also greatly increased the number of unemployed people in this country. According to official statistics, the number of unemployed people increased from 250 thousand people to 375 thousand people in 2020, that is, it has increased by 50%. Majlis, the economic decline in Azerbaijan during the crisis can be seen in the countries of the world. In some cases, the recession coincided with a time when there was no crisis in the world at all. Even in 2023, the economy of Azerbaijan faced not a strong growth, but on the contrary, the fact that the economic growth index was less than 1%.

From this point of view, even the published official statistics It is confirmed by the government of Azerbaijan that the statement “when we look at the statistics of the last 20 years, we only see growth and development” is wrong and the accuracy of the subsequent assessments is also not correct.

Economic growth and economic development

According to independent experts, even economic growth always It does not mean economic development. Since 2005, a lot of oil revenues have flowed to Azerbaijan and the country’s economic indicators have also increased.

Furthermore, sustainable economic development is achieved if the country’s economic indicators are only in one area. not dependent Currently, Azerbaijan’s export revenues are almost completely (90%) and budget revenues are formed by the oil and gas sector. Oil and gas will decrease, the economic indicators of this country will also decrease. From this point of view, although the economic indicators increased during the 20-year period of Ilham Aliyev’s rule, sustainable economic development did not take place in Azerbaijan. Therefore, the traditional risk factors associated with the country’s economy have always remained.

Since Azerbaijan’s oil production has decreased in recent years, international organizations also say that growth will be achieved in the coming years. It will be more difficult in the economy of this country.

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