Will PKK surrender to Türkiye?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, in the past hours in many From the Turkish media, news about Abdullah Ocalan is circulating, which journalists have called a “news bomb”.

The story is that Ocalan, the leader of the group The terrorist PKK (Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party) has ordered the forces under his command to surrender. The leader of the PKK terrorist group, who has been imprisoned on Imre Ali Island in Turkey since 1999, has announced that there is no reason to continue the fight with the current trend and the number of casualties of this group will increase day by day.

The famous news site “Khabler” and the website “Gazette Oko” belonging to the Oz Ishik brothers, citing a source in the Met Intelligence Service, have announced that Öcalan, an initial message to the commanders of the PKK. sent to Qandil mountain in northern Iraq and informed them that the casualties of the last few months were very high and if the current situation continues, the PKK will not have any members!

Ocalan announced that soon He writes a detailed letter to the PKK leaders and tells them why they should surrender and lay down their weapons.

Casualties that scared the PKK

A few months ago and after the suicide attack of two members of the PKK In Ankara, in front of the central building of the Ministry of Interior and the Turkish Police, a new wave of Turkish airstrikes against the PKK began. But following the killing of 12 Turkish soldiers in an ambush, the Ankara authorities took another path and used two separate tactics:

1. Street assassination against PKK leaders. in the north of Iraq and especially in the city of Sulaymaniyah.

2. Targeted drone attacks in the north of Syria and the killing of several of the most important heads of PKK satellite organizations.

In addition to the above two targeted tactics, in which the use of local beads and field intelligence was the main pillar of Turkey’s operations, a chain of extensive bombings was also carried out, which destroyed several small and large P. It razed the KKK to the ground and it is said that in sensitive and strategic areas such as Gara Mountain, PKK people live in underground caves and tunnels for a long time and lack of movement and exposure for a long time. In the dark and humid environment, it has caused many of them problems.

Perhaps the most important question is this: did the leaders of the PKK, who in the past refused to implement some of Ocalan’s orders and They have sacrificed themselves against him, will they execute his order this time?

In response, it should be said: Even if the leaders and commanders of the PKK do not execute this order, The breath of Ocalan’s decree will have a significant psychological impact on the middle and lower ranks of the PKK terrorist group.

Physical war or reality?

Experiences of the past years have shown that Erdogan and the Turkish security apparatus, occasionally on the eve of elections, from Öcalan and P.K. they use to manage the space in the securitized scenario. and they force them to surrender in the north of Iraq. Although it is possible that this time it is a psychological war, but in any case, the PKK is in a crisis and is practically grounded, and Turkey is far from reaching the point of completely eliminating this terrorist threat. Not much.

Who is victorious in the field?

1. Ibrahim Kallen, head of the Turkish intelligence service. Professor Kallen, a university professor, scholar and master of the history of thought, who previously held positions such as the head of the Seta Political and Economic Studies think tank, Erdogan’s spokesperson and the head of the group of advisers. He was in charge of foreign policy and national security of the presidential institution.

But now it is said that he has been in salt water for a long time and before he became the president of Mit, on the order of Erdoğan, he took the job from Hakan Fidan. and after taking over this post, he created a wide chain and network of local spies in Syria and Iraq, who played a prominent role in curbing the PKK and targeting the main commanders of this terrorist group.

2.General Yashar Güler, Minister of Defense. General Güler, during the time when he was the head of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, as a quiet and calm general and The voice was known. At that time, in the fight against the PKK, he was subject to the orders of Erdogan and General Hulusi Akar, the then Minister of Defense, and he was not personally responsible. But now Güler himself has become the Minister of Defense and the killing of 12 Turkish soldiers by the PKK has drawn a lot of criticism on him and he had to personally go to the Turkish border posts on the Iraqi border several times to control things. If some PKK commanders surrender to Öcalan’s request, Güler’s foothold will be strengthened and he will remain as minister now.

3. Justice and Development Party. In the national and parliamentary elections of 2023, the ruling party of Turkey was able to achieve a valuable victory. However, the economic crisis and unprecedented inflation have put this party in a difficult situation. If some of the leaders of the PKK surrender, on the eve of the municipal elections that will be held in April, the Justice and Development Party will still have an effective social-security tool to win the elections.

4.Ali Yerli Kaya, Minister of Interior. In the political and executive structure of Turkey, two important security-police institutions and structures, the Gendarmerie and the Police, are under the orders of the Minister of the Interior and play an important role in the fight against terrorism. But since Suleyman Soylu, the former minister of the country, had many sidelines and was not aware of security issues, curbing the PKK sometimes faced serious problems. But now, Ali Yerli Kaya, as the Minister of Interior, has been introduced as the hero of the fight against terror and the hero of the fight against mafia and smuggling, and he has performed brilliantly and brought the PKK to its knees. If Yerli Kaya is nominated in the municipal elections in the strategic area of ​​Istanbul with this record, the possibility of his victory against Akram Imamoglu is not out of mind.

5. National Movement Party In the last 10 years, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had to partner with Baghçeli in the presidential coalition, his opinions were always sought in making important and strategic decisions and he gave many concessions to the far-right National Movement Party or M.H.P. Baghçeli is a politician who has always believed in avoiding negotiations with the PKK and war until the last member of this group is killed, and if Öcalan asks his group members to surrender, Baghçeli will be one of the big winners of this game. It was. /p>

In the end, it should be said that the PKK terrorist group has started an armed struggle with Turkey since 1984, and in the last two decades, it has also threatened the security of Iraq, Iran and Syria. is damaged Pejak terrorist group, as one of the PKK’s sub-categories, which considers itself subject to Ocalan’s orders, in addition to shedding the blood of many children of the Islamic Republic of Iran defender, has also been involved in seducing some young people in the border provinces.

In northern Syria as well, the PKK has practically become a US field force and has looted Syria’s oil resources. As a result, the possibility of PKK commanders surrendering to Ocalan’s order will be an important security event.

end of message/