NATO and EU trying in vain to plan concretely in order to reinstate Trump

According to the report of the international group Tasnim news agency, newspaper ” Zoddeutsche Zeitung wrote in an article: “The European Union and NATO are thinking about Trump’s return, which of course seems like a real scenario. However, concrete planning for the occurrence of this worst-case scenario in Brussels seems like a futile effort.”

Looking into the future, this scenario can be seen: it is November 6, 2024, the day before in the United States, a new American president was elected and Donald Trump won. It is easy to see He speculated that there was sheer panic in Brussels.Trump, the Europeans’ nightmare, who in his first term never missed an opportunity to criticize the EU and insult NATO allies, will be back in the White House in a few weeks. But how should the European Union and the NATO alliance react to this issue?

This future is not so far away. After Trump’s big win in the Republican primary in Iowa, even the infamous head-in-the-sand optimists in Brussels are probably realizing that Europe needs to seriously consider this scenario, and that’s at least somewhat likely. .

A diplomat in Brussels said about this: Trump’s possible return is now the main topic of all discussions here. He emphasized that there are now relatively clear considerations in the EU apparatus about what Trump’s second presidency means for Europe in various policy areas – from trade to security.

However, what is currently missing is a clear, EU-wide plan, coordinated across governments and institutions, on how Europe can and should behave in this regard. . This diplomat says: Basically, everyone in the EU is staring at the snake like a rabbit. According to him, with one exception, we can add: Viktor Orbán, the right-wing populist and nationalist ruler of Hungary, is clearly waiting for the second term of Trump’s presidency. This does not necessarily make agreeing on a common European line easier. Inadequacy can be seen, for example, in the case of Ukraine. All the European governments know that Trump will not continue the large-scale American financial and military aid to Kiev.

Even if Trump does not follow through on his announcement and does not try If Russian President Vladimir Putin makes a deal to break up Europe without taking into account the interests of the EU and Ukraine, the US will effectively withdraw from the EU’s pro-EU alliance, leaving a gaping hole. This is an accepted truth in Brussels.

However, there are no concrete steps from the Europeans to bridge this predictable gap. The roughly 50 billion euros that most EU countries want to provide to Ukraine over the next four years is based mostly on the previous level of European aid – about 1.5 billion euros per month – and not on possible future needs if the United States The other context does not help.

Of course, it is unlikely that these conditions will change fundamentally in the near future, whether Trump comes or not. The small EU countries in Eastern and Northern Europe have long reached the limits of their limits. Finland, Denmark, the Baltic states and Poland currently spend between 0.7 and 1.4 percent of their economic output on aid to Ukraine. According to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the corresponding figure for Germany is about 0.5 percent. On the other hand, France, Spain and Italy are facing a slight drop of 0.07%. Of all the major EU countries, only Germany has so far announced plans to significantly increase military aid to Ukraine this year, by billions of dollars. But even if all countries want to spend more money on the defense of Ukraine, the European defense industry will hardly have the capacity to compensate the loss of American suppliers.

And Trump not only calls into question the American aid to Ukraine, but also threatens the entire protection umbrella of the United States, through which the United States has relieved the Europeans of guaranteeing their security for decades. It is said that during his first term as president, Trump openly told the European side that he considers the NATO project finished and that the United States will not help Europe if Russia attacks. This is at the core of Europe’s security architecture, and that is why some European defense politicians are calling for significant arming of Europeans in this situation. The logic is that if Trump wins, Europe will suddenly find itself alone in terms of security policy. So the only option is for the alliance to become militarily independent.

Of course, NATO-friendly senators in Washington wrote a new clause in the latest US defense budget law that the president It prohibits from announcing withdrawal from NATO unilaterally without the approval of the parliament. Of course, this clause does not reduce Trump’s contempt for this military alliance, but at least it may prevent irregular maneuvers. But ultimately, for NATO to be effective as a deterrent alliance, it is crucial that US nuclear power be recognized as a security guarantor of last resort.

Not surprisingly, however. In addition to the concern about Trump’s return, there is hope among NATO diplomats that the situation will not get too bad. Anyway, it is said that Trump did not end America’s membership in this coalition during his first term as president.

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