Prospects of success of right-wing parties in European elections

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, an Austrian newspaper “The Courier” wrote in an article: A study published on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicts a significant shift to the right in the EU elections in June 2024, so anti-European populist parties in nine EU member states. Europe will be at the top of the votes, including in Austria and in 9 other countries they will be in second or third place.

Accordingly, the Freedom Party In Austria, it will double the number of EU representatives from three to six.

A new study by European think tank ECFR shows a sharp turn to the right in the European Parliament election forecast. in 2024 based on current polls from all 27 EU countries.

The authors, including political scientists and leading pollsters Simon Hicks and Kevin Cunningham, forecast In these elections, the two central political factions in the European Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), will continue to lose seats as before.

These conditions could threaten key pillars of the European agenda, including the European Green Deal, continued support for Ukraine and future EU enlargement.

Accordingly, in France, Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is likely to lose significant ground to Marine Le Pen’s extremist party. According to the study, the party needs to attract 25 MPs, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to nearly double its number of MPs, possibly to a total of 19 seats in the plenary. /p>

The results of this survey show that the Hungarian Fidesz party led by Viktor Orbán (forecast: 14 seats) can play a decisive role in the future: if this party decides to join the conservatives and If the European Reformists (ECR) joins, it could become the third strongest faction, almost along with the Identity and Democracy faction, which makes up a quarter of all MPs.

As ​​a result , almost half of the seats will be outside the “grand coalition” of the centrist EPP, S&D and the liberal Renew Europe (RE), whose seats are likely to fall from 60 to 54%. Getting a majority of key votes.

This study predicts that the results of the European elections could herald national elections in EU member states such as Austria, Germany and France:

Accordingly, in Austria, the increase in support for the FPÖ could continue until the National Assembly elections in the fall of 2024.

In Germany, the expected influence of the extreme Alternative for Germany party can shape the political landscape and political narrative before the 2025 federal elections in this country.

Simon Hicks is one of The authors of this article and the professor of the European University Institute in Florence said about this: Considering the rise and rise of populism, which can reach new heights with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States at the end of this year, the parties of the political center must wake up and clearly to pay the voters’ demands. What consequences will Trump have for the security of Europe and NATO?