Türkiye’s attitude to the complete withdrawal of America from Syria

According to Webangah News quoted by Tasnim News agency, there are whispers of the possibility of the complete withdrawal of the army America has found a wide coverage of Syria in the Turkish media. Turkey has a long border of 915 km with its southern neighbor, Syria, which in the past years, in addition to security turmoil, has always been the entry route for refugees, and even Turkey’s long concrete wall has not been able to end the concerns of Ankara’s security authorities.

Of course, this is not the only problem, and the government created by the Justice and Development Party of Turkey, during the Syrian crisis, was not part of the solution, but part of the crisis and tension, and the Erdogan government tried for a long time. to bring a puppet government composed of Brotherhood Arabs, liberal Arabs and Turkmens to power in Damascus.

But this plan failed with billions of dollars and Ankara could not achieve a goal However, Turkey has repeatedly attacked northern Syria under the pretext of fighting the satellite organizations of the PKK terrorist group and has armed several Turkmen and Arab tribes in northern Syria.

As a result, even now, the whisper of possible US withdrawal from Syria is a matter of great importance for Turkish politicians and experts in the field of international relations and national security studies in this country.

Erdogan government, During 2023, it tried many times to normalize its relations with Damascus and Bashar al-Assad’s government. But Assad, in a smart and appropriate position, made the normalization conditional on the complete withdrawal of Turkish military from Syria. Syria has been evaluated by several political analysts in Turkey.

Samra Alkan, a Turkish political analyst, wrote about the possibility of America’s withdrawal from Turkey: “The article by Charles Lister, a famous American analyst, in the Foreign Policy magazine, shows that that new developments are taking place. He talks about the possibility of the US planning to withdraw from Syria and believes that, in a situation where tensions and hostilities in the Middle East have reached their peak after Israel’s attacks, it is not strange if the Biden administration, in this complex regional crisis, is in the priorities Military to reconsider. As soon as Lister’s analysis was released, the Pentagon announced that there was no such goal. But Lister, on the X social network, pointed out that this speed of response and sensitivity of the Pentagon says everything! .com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1402/11/10/1402111015553261829286314.jpg”/>

He related and wrote: “Lister emphasizes in his article that the possibility of the complete withdrawal of American forces from Syria is a serious concern. A final decision on the withdrawal has not been made, but four Defense and State Department sources say the White House is no longer willing to spend money to continue what appears to be an unnecessary mission. For this reason, expert discussions are currently ongoing to determine how and when to exit. If a withdrawal occurs, the unresolved Syrian crisis is likely to deepen in a sense, and ISIS may regain power. Perhaps, in the period when there are such pressures in the Middle East, the issue of leaving Syria does not seem realistic. But on the other hand, it can be said that an important step such as retreating in the process of the election competition in America is an important development in itself. Another notable theme in Lister’s article is that Russia and Iran may become stronger not only in Syria but in the entire region if America withdraws. In addition to Iran and Russia, Turkey also has a close relationship with this case, and the future developments in Syria are very important for us”.

>Turkey’s two major obstacles in Syria

Samra Alkan wrote about Turkey’s security concerns in the context of new developments in the region: “The international system, under the influence of developments After the Al-Aqsa storm and Turkey is in this situation, it must have a new security assessment and face these questions: What will Turkey’s situation be like in such a difficult period? Can risks and threats be eliminated? Can opportunities and strengths be revealed? Among the serious threats against Turkey’s national security, we should mention the political-military structure of northern Syria. Where the continuation of arms and financial support to PKK’s satellite entities increases instability and mistrust in the surrounding countries. In this difficult situation, Türkiye needs strong leadership. Despite all the criticisms of Erdogan’s political and economic performance, his leadership power cannot be ignored. He and Hakan Fidan have the strength and experience that should be displayed at this difficult time. I think the actions that Fidan will take in the coming period are very important. At the same time, the impact of surrounding issues on the results of Turkish elections and the political developments of our country is very important. In such a period when the external environment is changing, the internal environment may also change in many areas”.

Samra Alkan and many other Turkish political analysts believe that the triangle Erdoğan-Fidan-Kallen is not reluctant to once again put a ground attack on the northern regions of Syria on the agenda.

But in the current situation, he faces two big obstacles. The first is the economic crisis and the possibility of people’s rapid and negative reaction to a costly and troublesome operation, and the second is considering the possible reactions of the United States. Because in the current situation, the contract to buy 40 F-16 fighter jets from America has become the most important political-defense goal of Erdogan’s government, and no one wants this half-finished and finalized agreement to fall apart.

Does the departure of the US mean that Turkey is gaining power?

Some of Nationalists, retired generals, and supporters of militaristic tendencies and military interventionism believe that Turkey should have significant military power in Syria, and as a result, the departure of America is definitely in Ankara’s favor. But some other commentators and experts believe that in the event of a complete US withdrawal, full power will be in the hands of two important actors, namely Russia and Iran. For this reason, the complete withdrawal of the American military from Syria can put Erdogan’s government in a situation where cost-benefit calculations will not be so easy.

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