Scenarios facing the conflicts between Hezbollah and the Zionist regime; From exchange of fire to all-out war

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the current conflicts between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Zionist regime started on the day after the Al-Aqsa storm operation and continue until now. These conflicts, which are ongoing with missile, drone and air attacks between the two sides, have not led to an all-out ground war so far. However, areas on both sides of the border have been depopulated. In the meantime, Hezbollah has also offered martyrs, and on the other side, the Israeli side has suffered a record number of human casualties, which in some cases refused to announce the names of the people, or the media reported the death toll with a delay of several days. he does. The continuation of these conflicts has brought warnings from international organizations and personalities, especially the Secretary General of the United Nations. In this regard, Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations, stated that the war between Israel and Hezbollah would be a disaster.

The Zionist regime recently announced that He has sent more troops to the north and has spoken of new and serious threats against Hezbollah, which some observers interpret as signs of the beginning of a large-scale war. Lebanon’s Hezbollah has declared the end of conflicts and attacks on Israelis as a condition for the Zionist regime to stop its aggression on the Gaza Strip, and on the opposite side of this regime, it has also demanded the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to the northern bank of the Litani River in Lebanon. In this situation, America sent its special representative to Lebanon, Amos Heckstein, to stop these conflicts and force the Hezbollah forces to retreat, which has been unsuccessful so far.

The question that is raised is, considering the strengths and weaknesses of the parties and the regional and international conditions, to what extent is there a possibility of a widespread conflict? And according to the conditions of the parties, what reasons are the scenarios of the occurrence or non-occurrence of a large-scale war based on? “https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1402/11/18/14021118151428230293432210.jpg”/>

Wide war scenario

Probability idea supporters The occurrence of an all-out war is based on the following reasons:

1- Payment of moral costs by the Zionist regime: This The argument is based on the assumption that the Zionist regime has been angered by the public opinion and regional and international organizations due to the widespread attacks combined with destruction and mass killing in the Gaza Strip. Now that he has paid such a price, how better to expand the war in the northern borders with Lebanon. The strengthening of the Israeli military forces in the north of the occupied Palestine along with the sending of heavy weapons equipment to this region is the evidence confirming this possibility.

2- Learning from the experience of the Gaza Strip: Since the Zionist regime neglected the development of the military capability of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movement in Gaza, and as a result, on the 7th of October, it suffered one of the biggest military defeats by surprise. Therefore, while preemptively attacking Lebanon’s Hezbollah, it is necessary to prevent the recurrence of the October 7 incident in its northern borders. Netanyahu personally: The defeat of the Israeli regime in the battle of the Gaza Strip so far has made the sacrifice of Netanyahu and his cabinet to be considered a certainty. Of course, the continuation of the war and especially the start of a new war in southern Lebanon will probably cause the continuation of Netanyahu’s extremist cabinet. Therefore, the war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah will be the savior of Netanyahu and his cabinet in the current situation, despite the huge costs for the Israeli regime. In addition, Netanyahu seeks regionalization of the war and conflict between Iran and the United States, which of course has so far been unsuccessful in realizing this.

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The scenario of no Israeli-Lebanese conflict

In this scenario, arguments are presented that assume the occurrence of a war between the Zionist regime and Hezbollah in Lebanon is unlikely because:

1- Military power Hezbollah: Israeli soldiers and analysts declare that the power of Hezbollah is more than 10 times the power of Hamas, and unlike in 2006, this movement now has about 150,000 to 200,000 rockets, of which 10% are point-blank weapons. .

The lack of preparation of the Israeli regime. In economic-social dimensions: The war in Gaza has had disastrous results for the Zionist regime. The displacement of 200,000 to 300,000 Israelis around the Gaza Strip and northern occupied Palestine, the estimated economic damage of 50 billion dollars by the end of 2024, and the erosion of the Zionist society from the continuation of the war in Gaza and the inability of the army and the cabinet to release the prisoners have led to this regime. Economically and socially, it does not have the necessary preparation for starting a new and wider war.

According to the interpretation of some analysts, in the event of a war between two On the other hand, this event will be the most destructive war for Tel Aviv and Netanyahu’s cabinet. 3- Avoiding war on two fronts: /strong>One of the most important military strategies of the Israeli regime is to avoid war on two fronts at the same time. Of course, the Israelis currently find themselves fighting on multiple fronts in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, southern Lebanon and Yemen, but despite this, they refrain from a large-scale war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah as a new front.

4- The beginning of anti-war protests in occupied Palestine: After about 4 months of war in the Gaza Strip and the absence of any clear horizon To stop it, the Zionist community has organized protests with the aim of stopping the war. In this regard, many families of Zionist prisoners in the resistance groups in the Gaza Strip are trying to put pressure on the cabinet of this regime by organizing nationwide marches around the important military and security centers in Tel Aviv as well as the residence of the Netanyahu family in Jerusalem. The purpose is to accept the conditions of resistance and exchange of prisoners. The presidential election is approaching. If this event coincides with a new war in West Asia, it will naturally increase the votes of Biden’s rival faction. Besides, there is a possibility of intensifying the attacks of Iran’s allies on the American and Israeli forces and even the direct entry of Iran into this war. Such an image will mean a regional war and America’s failure in managing the crisis in West Asia, which is against the interests of the current American government.

The occurrence or non-occurrence of any war It is usually based on cost-benefit calculation. In the situation where the Zionist regime in the Gaza Strip is faced with the stubborn struggle of the Palestinian fighting forces and the society of this regime is facing extensive casualties and damages, it is unlikely that the leaders of this regime will open a new front to fight the resistance. The shaky state of the Biden government in the year leading up to the presidential elections in the United States and the fear of a regional war can also be mentioned in this regard. However, the possibility of a large-scale attack by the Israeli regime on Lebanon should not be ruled out. In such a situation, the full readiness of the Lebanese Hezbollah forces, as well as the resistance front in the regional arena, is a necessary and rational condition.

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