What dangers await Türkiye in the region and the world?

– International news – Tasnim News Agency, the year 2024 is the starting point for Turkey, which the president of this country has used an exaggerated term to describe. It will be Turkey. But many analysts also say that instead of using these strange and unacceptable words, the main obstacles to Turkey’s development should be evaluated.

Mansour Ak Gon, one of Turkey’s old journalists, in this note, examined the issues that may affect Turkey’s path to stability, development and progress in the coming years. to face the danger

Which risks are most important?

Let’s address Turkey’s main challenges in an analytical model and mental evaluation. Let’s think about what our country will be like regardless of party competition and regardless of which personality or which party will be in power.

They may affect the fate of Turkey in the future. Let’s ask ourselves: in the next 5 or 10 years, which challenges and serious threats will Turkey face? In my opinion, we should start with our chronic problems:

A) Cyprus issue

When we look at the political conditions of Turkey and the world, this fact We find that our first problem is Cyprus. Whether we like it or not, the Cyprus issue is one of the most important problems and challenges facing our country. This important political-security issue, in addition to Ankara-Athens relations, affects the approach of the European Union and NATO towards Turkey.

Although it seems that the issue of Cyprus has been somewhat frozen and put aside. However, there has been no progress in the negotiation process, and the two-state solution proposed by Turkey has not been accepted.

The initiatives of the Greek side to solve the problem still challenge Turkey’s positions. The Secretary-General of the United Nations encourages the parties to continue where the negotiations were stopped. But the evidence shows that probably this time the problem will not be solved and the status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will not be recognized and the United Nations parameters will continue to be discussed. will be.

The Greek side will try to change the existing situation at every opportunity, so that part of the island is not in the hands of the Turks as the Turkish government. The European Union will always carry the risk of creating a crisis.

We cannot Denying the possibility that, in the worst possible case, this could cause problems in our relations with Athens. When we consider the complexity of the problems and the attitude of the parties, we can say that a solution that satisfies both parties and ends the problems completely will not be achieved in the foreseeable future.

b) Kurdish problem

Another of our dangers is the old problem of the Kurds, which has a chronic danger, and this danger is caused by the violent movements of the PKK. We still haven’t been able to solve the problem and the threats from PKK continue.

Strategic usability even if the US leaves the region The new conditions require Turkey to be alert both politically and militarily. While our military advances in Syria and Iraq reduce the threat of domestic terrorism, I worry that it paves the way for future attacks and casualties.

c) The possibility of dragging Turkey into the war

The third and perhaps the most serious danger is the possibility of Turkey being dragged into a war that it does not want to participate in. Keep in mind that both regional tensions and global crises may surprise us and lead us to war when we least expect it. First of all, many problems, from Palestine to the future of Syria, may spiral out of control and involve us.

Just as we saw after the initiative attack of Hamas, it is possible for war to cause human disasters, violations of laws, major government interventions, counterattacks by organizations and governments that take advantage of the situation. get out of control and become regional. It is possible that the events that will happen in the future will involve us in some way.

At the global level, the competition between the United States and China has created conditions that may lead to new custody wars between the United States and Russia. The EU’s desire to gain strategic independence and become a real player in world politics may also seriously affect the fate of Turkey. Therefore, due to membership in NATO, we may be drawn into an unexpected war at an unexpected time.

It is sensitive to involve our country in an unwanted regional tension and enter into a war.

C) Climate change and democracy gap

It is necessary to be very careful and In an organized and institutional way, we must carefully monitor the climate crisis, the state of the economy and the possible consequences of the increase in the power of nationalism and populism in Europe, and know what the consequences of continued criticism of Turkey in the field of human rights and lack of rule of law will be. will have for us

indirectly affect our security. To solve these problems, especially the problems that can be classified in the geopolitical category, the first thing that should be done is to reduce the gap of our democracy, get rid of our political problems and internal differences. Human rights in Turkey will improve, we will establish peace inside and guarantee the stability of Turkey’s economy.

Of course these are necessary, but not sufficient. Turkey must be prepared to increase its military power with an identity that it attributes to itself in its geography, the problems of its imperial legacy and instability in the region. Turkey should act as a deterrent and intervene if necessary. Therefore, it has no choice but to have a strong military, diplomacy and intelligence service.

d) armed forces

If Europe wants to become independent from the United States, it should be from drones to warplanes, from ships to tanks, from the system From air defenses to long-range artillery and produce everything we can.

Beyond all this, Turkey’s strategic priority should be to maintain its membership in NATO To prevent it, even if we can’t trust, there is still no choice. Because until NATO dissolves itself, every member country, especially Greece and even America, is a potential threat to Turkey, which remains outside NATO. And not more stable. It was because of NATO membership that Turkey was able to impose its views on Sweden and force this country to change its constitution. With this score, we were able to negotiate with America for the purchase of F-16. This marked a new beginning in the relationship, setting the stage for the formation of a basis on which Turkish participation in the F-35 program would be possible.

I think the time has come for Turkey to take the possibility of nuclear war seriously Build safe havens to protect your civilians. In addition, it may be necessary to further develop air and anti-ballistic defense systems, achieve sufficient capacity to take preventive measures, and perhaps consider nuclear deterrence, considering the circumstances.

Given that we have finally reached the era of globalization, we must find ways to be self-sufficient in many fields from satellite systems. To find launchers, from cloud technologies to chip manufacturing facilities. Instability in global balances, regional problems and tensions that we are somehow on the other side of, forces us to be strong in every sense.

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