What does Zelenskiy’s action in changing the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces mean?

According to the international group Tasnim News Agency, the strained relations between Volodymyr Zelensky , the President of Ukraine and Valery Zalogeny, the Commander-in-Chief of the Army, has been overshadowing Ukraine’s domestic politics for more than a year. Zalogeni’s removal was expected for a long time, which was finally done on February 8 (19 Bahman). But the news about this issue continued to overshadow other events and led to various predictions about what awaits the Ukrainian army under the new command. The transformation also includes domestic political consequences. Zelensky took a big risk by firing Zalogeny. Because for his political survival, he strongly opposed the consensus and public will.

Resignation with a political

The resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was extremely dramatic. Tensions had risen over the past few months, and finally on January 29, at a meeting in Kiev, Zelensky invited Zalozheny to resign voluntarily, but the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces refused. Finally, after the strangest speculations and several days of waiting, a spectacular end was made in history.

From the beginning, the Zelensky relationship And Zalogeny seemed like a completely Hollywood story, in the public opinion of Ukraine, the best men of the country, the president and the general, stand shoulder to shoulder to defend the country.

It was not surprising that Western and Ukrainian media made a hero out of these two in order to influence the public opinion of the West; It was a clear and simple design and archetype. But the realities on the ground in Ukraine very quickly corrected these imaginations. This difference did not occur after the victory or defeat of the Russians, but at the height of the war. In several operations and untimely collision of ambitions. Zelensky invested all his media authority around the world in creating the image of a great and imminent victory for Ukraine as a result of a successful counteroffensive, and after a heavy defeat he felt betrayed by the army commanders.

After that, it became clear that President Zelensky no longer wanted to tolerate the independent command of the armed forces and the autonomy of the military in general. It was after that that the criticisms of the army’s performance by the politicians and the political decisions by the military increased.

In the current situation, the president of Ukraine wants to introduce Zalogeny’s resignation as part of “revival of the system”, but it is unlikely to work. Even for the most inexperienced observers, it is clear that the main reason for the resignation of the commander-in-chief of the army was political competition. Zelensky was in the way of managing the battlefield. It was not climate.

Zelensky is convinced that the whole system should work vertically for the president. For the president and his entourage, the fact that Zalogeni was able to gain political concessions from the government by relying on his popularity among the people, while the consequences of all failures were borne by the president and his political team, created an unbearable situation.

Finally, Zelensky made the big change and moved several other security and high-ranking officials along with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. There are no irreplaceable figures left outside the president’s office.

Zelensky knew that a Russian military threat would prevent public discontent. However, security officials and Zelensky warned potential protesters “to be careful that Maidan 3 (another color revolution) is not organized in Ukraine with the support of Russian special services”

The Kremlin and the Russian security apparatus hoped that a military coup would not happen in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military knows very well that any serious challenge to Zelensky is in the enemy’s favor. Although the security system was ordered to keep troops on alert in case of any unrest in the capital and unwanted movements. be a winning card for his political future. The constitutional powers of the president will expire in May (1403) and in such war conditions, this political victory of Zelensky will be remembered.

RTL”>Commander of the presidential army

But the face of Zalogeny’s successor is “General Alexander Sirsky It is completely against Zalogeni’s ideas and thoughts. He was born in Russia (his relatives still live in Russia) and was educated at the Moscow High Command School.

Of course, Syrsky also belongs to the western military elite of Ukraine. Even under Yanukovych, he was active in Brussels through cooperation with NATO and supported the introduction of NATO standards in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to his age (the new commander is eight years older than his predecessor) and background, Sirsky clearly belongs to the Soviet military school. All this already prevents the new commander from becoming an important and popular political figure in Ukraine like Zalogeny.

Sirsky has a lot of combat experience on the battlefield. In 2015, he served in the defense of Debaltsefe, a city in Donetsk province, and then assumed command of the joint forces in Donbass. After Zelensky came to power in 2019, he appointed the general as the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces.

During the full-scale war with Russia, Sirsky had two successful operations to his credit. Is; The defense of Kiev in February and March 2022 (for which he was able to win the title of champion of Ukraine) and the counterattack in the summer and fall of 2022, which forced the Russians to retreat from the Kharkiv region. It was after this operation that for the first time Ukrainian leaders began to talk about the fact that General Sirsky could take over the command of the Ukrainian army.

However, the defense of Bakhmut (Artemivsk) in the Donetsk region, which many of the Ukrainian armed forces considered a pointless meat grinder, resulted in an ignominious failure. It was there that Sirski gained a reputation as a commander who did not consider casualties. Zalogheny was against the defense of Bakhmut, but Zelensky was in favor, and with this operation Sirsky won the confidence of the president.

It was after Bakhmut that rumors about dual power in the Ukrainian armed forces appeared. Kurds, where Sirsky was called the commander of the “presidential army”. Now the same situation is being repeated in “Audioka”. Zalogheny advocated the surrender of the city in order to unify the front, Zelensky wanted to see another fortress, the defense of which would raise the morale of the nation, and he even personally went among them in Avdiyka to support the fighters.

Political consequences

While saying goodbye to Zalogheny, Zelensky expressed hope that the former commander will remain in the government body. However, there is little point in keeping a popular general by the president, any post he takes immediately becomes a point of tension in the government because of his previous rank.

From the beginning conflict, it was clear that Zelensky’s situation had reached a political impasse. Zalognyi’s resignation and leaving the government means continuing to cultivate a dangerous rival for Zelensky’s political future; Zalogheny’s expulsion means leaving his hand free to build his political future. Of course, Zalogheny will be welcomed with open arms by the Ukrainian opposition. Members of Petro Poroshenko’s party are now competing with each other in rhetoric, extolling the virtues of the retired army chief. Of course, Zalogheny is ideologically close to this camp in general, so there are many people close to former president Poroshenko among his advisors.

But for Zalogheny, the popular general with A flawless reputation and popular popularity do not make sense to be associated with Poroshenko, who is a deeply hated figure in Ukraine. Especially since there is no election on the political horizon of Ukraine in a war situation. Therefore, it is likely that Zalogeni will rest and wait at this time, carefully observing the actions of his successor to prepare for future political battles. Of course, all the hypotheses are on the condition that he has really considered a future for himself as a politician.

The interesting thing is how Zelensky himself will get out of the consequences of Zalogeni’s removal?? Considering that this is the first time that he is openly stepping against the flow of public opinion, and it is obvious that his decision will lose those voters who see the country’s military personnel as heroes and Zalogeni as their leader. But that’s only half the story. According to polls, 72 percent of Ukrainians, roughly the same number who voted for Zelensky, oppose Zalogny’s ouster. However, people’s love is fickle. Perhaps, with time, the “Iron General” will be forgotten.

Now Zelensky is clearly doing everything to revive himself. He seeks to once again give hope and strength to the nation of Ukraine by speaking of an imminent victory. Most likely, he will fail in this matter due to the conditions in the field and the cut off of Western aid. It is possible that the predictions of people around Poroshenko that Ukraine will face a disaster without Zalogeny will come true, but it should also be taken into account that during Zalogeny’s command, Ukraine also faced a complete failure in many operations and its big counterattack.

Author: Mehdi Saif Tabrizi, a researcher in Russia and the Caucasus

end of message/