What is behind the strategic partnership between China and Georgia?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the strategic partnership agreement signed by Beijing and Tbilisi, released on July 31, 2023, surprised many in Georgia and the West. is, the reasons and timing of the release of this document can highlight the geopolitical fluid situation in the South Caucasus. In order to create a balance between the West and the East in order to gain points, one of the most important factors is the desire of Beijing and Tbilisi to establish extensive and leadership cooperation. The former signed by Georgia to China outlines a vision for the expansion of bilateral economic and political cooperation. The two sides have agreed to strengthen “coordination and cooperation in regional and international affairs,” including China’s global projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and global security initiatives.

For China, Expanding relations with Georgia can pave the way for a wider presence in the South Caucasus. Beijing traditionally considers this region as part of Russia’s sphere of influence and is reluctant to take any major steps in this area that would affect Beijing-Moscow relations.

In retrospect, it can be seen that the South Caucasus was not even among the corridors covered by the “Belt and Road” plan. However, the vast Black Sea region has proven to be a critical geopolitical area where competition between Russia and the West creates a fertile ground for other major powers to maximize their benefits.

The South Caucasus is one of China’s most important strategic options in achieving this goal. Geographically, the shortest connection point from Xinjiang in China to the European Union member states, Romania, passes through the Black Sea basin. The Black Sea, which reaches Europe by land through Turkey, is now increasingly being considered as a suitable alternative to the traditional northern or Trans-Siberian route that passes through Russia.

China was initially hesitant to support the Middle Corridor, perhaps hoping that the Russia-Ukraine war would end soon, but over time, the need to find a stable alternative corridor for the Chinese became stronger.

Trial progress on the long-stalled China-Kyrgyz-Uzbekistan railway was the first strong signal from Beijing in this area. In early 2023, the Chinese ambassador to Georgia openly supported the idea of ​​developing the Middle Corridor, which surprised many countries in the region. In addition, various political memoranda and consultations have been signed to facilitate transit between Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Although it may be assumed that Beijing is leading It has been improving relations with Georgia, but Georgia also has several reasons for reviving extensive relations with China.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Tbilisi has put itself in a critical situation. The continued presence of Russian forces in two regions of Georgia since 2008 and the fear of renewed Russian military movements have led Tbilisi to seek a surprising solution. Approaching Russia in security issues and not complying with European sanctions against Moscow, while maintaining Tbilisi’s desire to join European structures.

Trope Walking

Many in Europe interpret Georgia’s approach as a betrayal, while others call it pragmatism. In any case, the use of this strategy has provoked the criticism of Tbilisi’s western partners. However, it seems that this strategy of Georgia’s dream has paid off by receiving the membership candidate status in late 2023.

In recent months, Georgia has reduced its attachment to the West and started to search for its foreign policy. New centers have gained strength. This strategy is clearly visible both in the balance of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow and in receiving concessions from Brussels by increasing alignment with other geopolitical poles.

with However, China-Georgia strategic cooperation does not guarantee greater or even unhindered Chinese influence in Georgia. Tbilisi is still the main partner of the United States and the European Union in Russia’s neighborhood.

Both Washington and Brussels, to varying degrees, see Beijing as a systemic competitor, and this is obvious. that the increase of connections with China, if not controlled, will bring costs to Georgia. It is supported by the European Union and China. The common interests of the two could ideally act as the main driver in the development of the corridor, but this is by no means guaranteed. Brussels and Beijing are likely to have different agendas about who is going to play the lead role in infrastructure development in Georgia, Azerbaijan and elsewhere along the way.

Russia is also likely to China’s actions will not be welcomed. Although Moscow considers the South Caucasus to be part of its undisputed sphere of influence, after the start of the Ukraine war and some wrong Caucasus policies, the Kremlin has witnessed the gradual erosion of its power and credibility in the region.

end of message/