The reasons for the escalation of the crisis in the relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the European Union

, in recent weeks, there have been events in the foreign policy of the Republic of Azerbaijan that have fueled the “crisis atmosphere” in relations between Baku and European countries. In this short period of time, the verbal conflicts of the Baku authorities with Europe have been such that part of the bilateral cooperation has been suspended and the prospect of bilateral relations has placed the party in an aura of “ambiguity”.

EU relations with the Republic of Azerbaijan have entered into a tense process since the war of September 2023 / Shahrivar 1402, when “Joseph Burrell” and many heads of the European Union condemned Baku’s military action; That is, since this country took full control of Karabagh in a short-term operation and more than 100 thousand Armenians went to Armenia. In fact, this incident was the “starting point” of a new round of tensions.

Continuing disputes, on January 22 / 2 Bahman, “Frank Schwabe » The parliamentary deputy of the Parliamentary Assembly of the European Union challenged the credentials of the delegation of the Republic of Azerbaijan on the opening day of the winter session of the European Parliament’s non-resident assembly and refused to recognize their identity documents. At the same time, Burrell also criticized Baku’s “territorial claims” and warned that the “violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity” will have “difficult consequences” for Azerbaijan.

InspirationAzerbaijan President Aliyev, recently (1 February / 12 Bahman) in a meeting he had with the Secretary General of the Inter-Parliamentary Union Martin Chongong in Baku, emphasized, ” His country may consider withdrawing from higher European institutions such as the Council of Europe and the Court of Human Rights.

To sum up, the crisis in relations between Baku –Brussels is a serious issue that is affected by two categories. The driving factors” are from Baku and European countries.

What has aggravated the crisis in relations with Baku from the European Union comes down to two important issues:

First, applying pressure from the powerful Armenian lobby In the European Union and the European Parliament, who in this way want Azerbaijan to realize the desired peaceful situation in a way that Armenia’s demands should be seriously realized, put pressure on them. while the efforts of European governments to deepen bilateral relations with Armenia and sell weapons to this country and strengthen the base Yerevan’s defense against Azerbaijan has angered the Baku government.

Second, to the internal and external approaches and actions of the government Azerbaijan returns, which has caused the displeasure of the European Union countries, especially France, Germany and the Netherlands, as these countries consider Baku’s actions to be in conflict with the conventional European standards regarding human rights and such. Of course, in the meantime, some countries, including Austria and Hungary, have “balanced views” and are not looking for tension in bilateral relations with Azerbaijan.

In this framework, European governments regarding the internal situation of Azerbaijan, especially the election process, the lack of internal competition in The lack of political and civil liberties, the separation of powers, the weakness of the legislature against the executive, the authoritarianism of Elham Aliyev’s government, the widespread arrests of religious and political activists and independent journalists, as well as many other cases, are seriously criticized.

In the story of Baku’s latest military operation in Karabakh, which caused the migration of 100 thousand Armenians, Western countries reacted sharply against Baku and purged this action. The ethnic Armenians said that this issue also provoked Aliyev’s anger.

The fact is that European countries are “dissatisfied” with the existing order and equations in the South Caucasus in order to develop the depth and scope of their influence and use it in the direction of They do not evaluate their own foreign policy.

Currently, Europe is looking for a “big playing field” and “maximum role” in various fields, including military – security and energy in the South Caucasus, which is considered a special region in terms of geopolitics, geoeconomics and geostrategy, as well as communication and transit lines, and has an “effective role” in providing energy to Europe, especially after the Ukraine war.

The sum of what has been said has caused Baku’s relations with European governments to become “cold” and a good prospect cannot be imagined for it. Therefore, the recent conflict, in addition to causing “serious challenges” to the relations of the West with Baku, pushes the European Union towards greater cooperation with Armenia, Boyge, who in the past year invited this country to join the European military and economic institutions. Have.

Of course, there is an important issue here; Azerbaijan is one of the important suppliers of oil and gas in Europe. The intensification of the crisis in bilateral relations can also “overshadow” the energy exchanges of the two sides; And in a situation where Europe’s need for Azerbaijan’s energy has become a “strategic need” due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Therefore, as long as the energy component is present in the relations between the two sides and Azerbaijan has “strategic importance” for the energy independence of the European Union, the crisis in Baku relations – Brussels will not take an unreasonable trend and will remain at “controlled” levels.

Author: Hamid Khosh Ain, expert on Caucasus issues

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