Georgia’s cautious approach to Russia; Does playing with Tbilisi fire work?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by Dozens of countries were condemned, but Georgia was not among these countries. Georgian authorities not only did not impose sanctions against Moscow, but also refrained from openly criticizing Moscow’s actions.

The Kremlin welcomed this, and Russian officials repeatedly criticized the Georgian government for They have praised the “constructive and worthy approach of an independent country”.

The Russians responded by resuming direct air traffic with Georgia and the visa regime introduced in the early 2000s. , canceled Further, bilateral trade expanded: in 2022, Georgian exports to Russia increased by 6.8% (to $652 million) and imports by 79% (to $1.8 billion), a new record in the last 16 years.

Reviewing the recent history of relations between the two countries, the position and behavior of the Georgian government seems illogical. Since the early 1990s and the independence of Tbilisi, the relations between the two countries have always been challenging, and after the 2008 war and Russia’s military support for the autonomy of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it was completely cut off. Since then, Moscow has controlled a fifth of Georgia’s territory while maintaining military bases there.

The unexpected rapprochement of relations with Russia comes at a time when relations between Georgia It is getting noticeably colder with the west. Western capitals do not shy away from criticizing the ruling party and Georgia’s dream, and Georgia also shows its attitude with action, or rather, with inaction towards the West.

In June 2022, Brussels will list presented Tbilisi with 12 conditions to obtain candidate status for EU accession, but in most cases no serious progress has yet been made; However, at the end of 2023, the European Union agreed to this country’s candidacy.

Georgian authorities decided to improve relations for many reasons. with the Russian Federation, but the key factor here is the growing role of Tbilisi in the region. In the context of the protracted war in Ukraine, the European Union minimized trade and economic relations with Russia (including in the energy sector) and began to look for alternative routes to access China and Central Asia.

In the meantime, it became clear that one of the most convenient and suitable options is the Trans-Caspian route (or middle transport corridor), which passes directly through Georgia and is the shortest route from China to European lands.

The European Union understands the new importance of Georgia’s geographical location and has significantly expanded its presence in the South Caucasus, reaching agreements with Tbilisi and Baku on a number of gas and infrastructure projects. As a result, Georgia now has new leverage in relations with the European Union, and the prospect of rapprochement with Russia is another trump card in negotiations with hesitant Western partners.

However, it would be wrong to Let’s say that Georgian society and the ruling party in this country are pro-Russia. Tbilisi believes that Russia will be involved in the war for years or even decades. This would reduce its influence in the South Caucasus and give other powers (primarily Turkey and Iran) more room to maneuver. The attack on Ukraine not only ended the post-Soviet era, but also the period of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus.

Taking advantage of Moscow’s weakness, Georgia now He can act more boldly in foreign policy. For example, Tbilisi does not deny that Moscow, which is now in a difficult situation, will push Abkhazia and South Ossetia to make conciliatory or peaceful gestures and behaviors towards Tbilisi, and then maybe there will be an opportunity to resolve the conflict.

We can talk about establishing economic relations and even some political contacts. It is possible that travel restrictions between Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the rest of Georgia will be lifted for the local population. Another realistic goal is to reduce the number of abductions of Georgian citizens by the Ossetian security forces, which are supported by the Russian army. Get points from Russia before 2022. The importance of Tbilisi for Moscow has actually increased dramatically.

First, Russian authorities are interested in keeping the border with Georgia open, as Moscow’s interests are with an important and strategic transit corridor to Turkey and Armenia are tied. Second, Russia’s goal in strengthening relations with Georgia is to ensure further stagnation of Tbilisi’s relations with the EU. For the Russians, this is a great way to reduce Western influence in the region. Thirdly, Georgia can play the “North Atlantic card” with Russia, talking more or less about its aspirations to join NATO, depending on its needs.

Georgia takes a special position on the issue of Ukraine, and its officials believe that NATO expansion actually led to the war, and now, according to Tbilisi, the West is sufficiently active from Ukraine to win the war. does not support Russia still controls a significant part of the occupied territories, and moreover (as the Georgian leadership believes), the balance of power is gradually shifting towards Moscow. All this is very similar to the understanding of the countries of the Global South about the future of the conflict in Ukraine.

However, Georgia may miscalculate its geopolitical plans with long-term negative consequences for it. will follow Today, it is not entirely clear what will happen to Georgia’s security and territorial integrity if Russia enters a serious internal crisis or, on the contrary, wins the war. Moreover, every step towards Moscow will push Tbilisi further away from the West. On the other hand, Europe has also tried to prevent Georgians from getting close to Russia by accepting Georgia’s candidacy for EU membership.

One ​​thing is clear: regardless of whether the normalization of relations between Tbilisi and No matter what Moscow looks like, it will all come down to the problem of Georgia’s territorial integrity. We know very well that Russia does not want to make concessions in this regard, and in case of defeat in Ukraine, it certainly does not want to abandon Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence it recognized in 2008.

Now the best option for Georgia is maneuvering between Russia and the West, which is gradually expanding its structures to the East. How long we have to wait is not clear, and everyone is waiting for the fate of Russia in the Ukraine war. Author: Mehdi Saif Tabrizi, a researcher in the field of Russia and the Caucasus. >

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