Türkiye’s fear of 21 million Syrian refugees in the future

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, these days once again in Turkey, the issue of presence Syrian refugees and the dangers of their population increase have been taken into consideration. Because the leader of one of the parties has used information and statistics that show that the rate of increase in population among Syrian families living in Turkey is not comparable to the rate of increase in the population of Turkish citizens, and if the situation continues in the same way, Turkey will face demographic challenges in the future. and will face great security. Professor Omid Ozdagh, the leader of the far-right and nationalist Zafar party, once again attracted the attention of the media and public opinion by proposing the security threat of the increase in the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey. did

Since the Syrian crisis started, the Turkish government practically became a part of this crisis and played an important role as one of the active actors to harm the Damascus government.

But Turkey itself is also involved It faced problems, one of which is the presence of millions of Syrian refugees and refugees in this country. In such a way that the largest number of people who were displaced from Syria went to Turkey, and now this host country is known as the land that houses the most refugees in the world ranking.

Turkey is waiting for the population of 21 million Syrians

On the eve of Turkish municipal elections, Political and party currents have once again started discussing the dangers of the presence of Syrian refugees. The leader of the Zafar Party has said to his nationalist supporters: “The average birth rate of a Syrian in Turkey has increased to 5.3 and This figure is three times the average birth rate of our own population. Considering that 5 million registered Syrian refugees and 2 million smuggled Syrians live in our country, we will face a strange population explosion in the future and the number of Syrians in Turkey will reach 21 million in 2040. This is a real threat and we will not be able to protect our country against such a situation”.

The leader of the radical party Zafar further said: “In addition to Syrians, Afghans are also present in most of our provinces and their population is smuggled and unregistered. It is also very worrying. The birth rate is high among both Syrians and Afghans, and when we come to power, we will return them all to Kabul and Damascus”. And as expected, many nationalist parties and movements aligned with him and asked Erdogan’s government to take special measures to return the Syrians.

Syriophobia and party competition in Turkey

Ozdag, which in the 2023 elections, practically established the “Syriophobia” project in Turkey, also affects the mentality of the party It affected both the ruler and the opposition front and is actually the beginning of a path that can create social tensions and a dangerous descent for Turkey. Syria considers Turkey as a major security threat. This is despite the fact that the Syrian refugees in Turkey have not only not created tension and conflict, but they are often hardworking people who, even with small and discriminatory incomes, have pulled their rugs out of the water and are successful in many financial and industrial fields. Turkey’s economy has arrived.

But the world of politics and party play has its own rules, and now, on the eve of municipal elections, Zafar’s far-right party has focused its entire political axis on the project of hostility against Syrian refugees.

The failure of the refugee return project

In the past few years, Erdogan’s government has tried many times with controversial projects and The attention of the media and public opinion should show that they want the Syrian refugees to return to their country. The government’s attempt by the Justice and Development Party to build a settlement of 200,000 people around Idlib and several other border points has practically failed, and despite extensive investment and advertising, a small number of Syrian refugees have agreed to return to their country.

Breaking the record of births in exile

The widespread attacks of extremists on Syria, not only caused A huge part of the country’s infrastructure was lost, but it was also one of the biggest displacement tragedies in modern history. In such a way that at least a quarter of the entire population of Syria left their country and went to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq and Europe.

One of the bitter aspects of the displaced Syrians’ life is that they have recorded the highest number of births in exile in the world. Because according to the official information of the Turkish authorities, since the beginning of the Syrian crisis and the beginning of the wave of refugees, nearly 1 million Syrian babies have been born in Turkey!

Currently, 396,000 infants and young children between the ages of one and four years live in different provinces of Turkey. So far, more than one million Syrian children have gone to school in Turkey, who are facing many cultural, economic and educational problems.

The country is working, it always provides up-to-date and reliable information about the age composition of Syrian refugees to the Turkish media and public opinion. The law enforcement and security institutions of Turkey are registered and estimates show that more than half a million Syrian refugees live in different provinces of Turkey in an informal way and their information is not registered.

Statistics of the Ministry of Interior of Turkey say that the number of Syrians living in Turkey in 2024 is 3 million and 181 thousand people. But the important thing about this large population is that a significant part of them are young.

It is enough to look at the following examples:
The number of Syrians living in Turkey with an age mix between 0 to 4 years: 395 thousand and 474 people.
The number of Syrians living in Turkey with an age range between 5 and 9 years: 335 thousand and 739 people.
The number of Syrians living in Turkey with an age range between 10 and 14 years : 366 thousand and 426 people.
The number of Syrians living in Turkey with the age group between 15 and 18 years: 242 thousand and 795 people.
The number of Syrians living in Turkey with the age group between 19 and 24 years: 350 thousand and 84 people.

This panel tells us that according to official information, 1 million and 800 thousand Syrian refugees under the age of 24 are currently living in Turkey, and including the number of unregistered refugees, the number They reach 2 million people. The 2 million Syrian population under the age of 24 is a huge human capital whose presence or absence can easily affect the fate of a country.

Undoubtedly, Syrian refugees in Turkey as a huge population of 4 million people have created problems for the host country. . But these problems are negligible compared to their positive impact on Turkey’s economic situation. Three important reasons can prove the fact that Syrians have often had a positive impact on Turkey’s economic situation in the past few years:
A) Syrian refugees are a cheap, low-expectation and non-premium labor force that both Turkish industry and service sectors benefit from.

b) Thousands of wealthy Syrian families and wealthy business and service groups, companies and have transferred their wealth to Turkey and have brought many benefits to the Turkish economy. c) Most of the Syrian refugees have cultural characteristics and a balanced, social, responsible, self-respecting and appreciative human temperament. They have few margins.

In the end, it should be pointed out that the presence of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Turkey, due to the long time and the high number of the population, has become a complex and multidimensional phenomenon and issue, and the evidence It shows that not only the Turkish government, but also institutions such as the United Nations, the European Union and other institutions and related actors, cannot find a solution to this problem easily and in a short period of time.

But without Doubt, under any circumstances, the ideal scenario for all Syrian refugees is that in the future, the political, security and economic conditions in Syria will become more favorable and they will also return to their country. Otherwise, the continued presence of millions of refugees will be detrimental to the Syrian people from the perspective of cultural, demographic, economic and security capacities.

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