What is behind the plan of the Russian naval base in Abkhazia?

according to the international group Tasnim news agency, Russia’s intention to establish a From its navy in the Black Sea and in the separatist region of Abkhazia, it may bring the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine dangerously close to Georgia. So far, Georgia has faced the security challenges caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. However, the changing topography of the war is fueling Georgian concerns about being caught up in the war equation.

Aslan Bezhania, the separatist leader of Abkhazia, recently announced that Russia would soon build a naval facility. in the port of Ochamchire, 39 km from the administrative border line with Georgia, with the aim of “improving the defense capacity of Russia and Abkhazia”. The island of Crimea has apparently forced Russia to withdraw a large part of its Black Sea fleet from Crimea and find safer options to deploy them. The port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar has been moved, but it is possible that part of the Russian naval fleet will be stationed near the southeast of this country and in the territory of Abkhazia, namely the port of Ochamchire.

According to some western sources In order to spread the conflicts, they have stated that the warships in Uchamchire will participate in attacks on Ukrainian civilians, and therefore they have made this port a valid target for the Ukrainian army. Ochamchire port is not deep enough to accommodate the largest ships of the Russian war fleet, but it has the ability to accommodate smaller ships and frigates for overhaul and logistics activities.

After Carrying out a number of rocket attacks on the Russian naval forces and fleet in the Black Sea by Ukraine, moving to the east of the Black Sea, shows the limitations of the Russians in the active defense of their naval fleet. Ukraine’s missile attacks on the Russian navy have made Crimea an unfavorable operating environment for Russia.

Currently, the Kremlin is considering a permanent move to the east, where Far from the main lands of Ukraine and on the coast of the Black Sea in Georgia.

While the Georgian government since the war with Russia in 2008 has tried to interact with Moscow in a cautious manner, has expressed concern about this action of the Kremlin.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia announced in a statement: “These actions show an unjust encroachment on the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Georgia is another aggressive act to justify the illegal occupation of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions”. is not. Russia maintains a significant presence in both regions and keeps their economies alive. Bezhaniya, in addition to announcing its intention to establish naval facilities, has also expressed its desire to become part of the union created between Russia and Belarus.

Continuous presence of the Russian Navy in Abkhazia It may turn this territory into a new front and drag the war against Ukraine to Georgia. A military base or port in Abkhazia not only allows Russia to launch attacks against Ukraine from the Georgian coastline, but also puts Tbilisi at risk of becoming a legitimate target of Western coalition counterattacks.

Russia will also gain new leverage to hinder Black Sea economic activity and exert indirect influence on the construction of the Anaklia deep sea port project, which is seen as a key point for strengthening regional connectivity within the framework of the development of the Middle Corridor project.

Therefore, it is natural to assume that the establishment of this base could pose a threat to pan-Eurasian supply chains and trade routes through the construction of the Anaklia deep sea port project, which would essentially eliminate Russia’s role in Eurasian trade operations. It weakens, it will be strengthened.

Georgian experts are worried that Russia’s war against Ukraine may create a chain reaction in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the country’s military presence on Abkhazia’s coastline causes concern. Georgia has become.

The war in Ukraine was believed to divert Russia’s attention from its other military activities, but the possibility of building a naval base in Abkhazia shows that Moscow continues to maintain It will continue to occupy other areas and fully utilize the benefits of the conquered areas. Also, the long-term existence of the Uchamchire naval facility shows that Russia is ready for a long conflict in Ukraine.

In addition to the South Caucasus, the establishment of another Russian base in the Black Sea in the midst of the Ukraine conflict shows Russia’s desire to complete the blockade of Ukraine, especially the trade of agricultural products of this country to Africa and Asia.

This puts the import or export of Caucasus countries at risk. As a result, the new naval base could be an implicit threat to spread the conflict to other regions. If this war ever escalates or other crises start in the Caucasus, these facilities will be vital to show Russia’s power in the region.

On the other hand, Moscow’s latest actions to strengthen its influence This area looks sloppy and unpredictable. Supporting the independence of the separatist regions with the expectation of a positive attitude towards Russia’s actions in Georgia seems contradictory.

The more the Kremlin supports the separatist regions against the policies of Tbilisi, the more the position of the dream state of Georgia, which is in Trying to maintain neutrality weakens. These policies have also discredited some pro-Russian parties in Georgia. https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1402/12/13/14021213132955545295391610.jpg”/>

Also, following this trend, there is a perception that there is no basis It is not real, and that is that the Kremlin ordered the puppet government of Abkhazia to come to terms with Georgia, with the idea that Moscow wants to re-establish the rail network through Abkhazian territories and Sukhumi airport with the cooperation of the Georgian government.

These peace talks are likely to have a negative impact on Georgia’s pan-Eurasian connectivity, as it is likely to seek to weaken the Middle Corridor’s supply chain and trade operations. This will undermine Georgia’s regional and geopolitical position, especially the hopes that Tbilisi has for the deep sea port of Anaklia in terms of its importance within the framework of the Middle Corridor and other important trade routes and corridors.

With this project, Russia will strengthen its position in the Caucasus A strong South will reduce China’s influence by having more pressure on the supply chain and trade routes in the region. It can also act as a bargaining tool for the Russians against the Chinese to demand more benefits from Beijing in exchange for providing safe trade routes. It knows under the supervision and support of the United States of America, therefore it opposes the investment and construction of Anaklia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has expressed his concerns about the potential docking capabilities of US submarines if this port is built.

Furthermore, given the Russians’ various efforts to ensure From establishing a railway connection between Russia and Armenia and also supporting the separatism of regions such as Abkhazia, there will be a possibility of changing the status of trade routes in the South Caucasus region at any moment.

Author: Mehdi Saif Tabrizi, a researcher in Russia and the Caucasus area

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