Obama’s adviser: Ukraine has no real chance of success even with the Taurus missile

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, Charles A. . In an interview with Berliner Zeitung, Kopchan, the foreign policy adviser of Barack Obama’s administration, discussed the risks of escalation and the chances of peace for Ukraine.

Charles A. Kopchan is an international relations expert. During the time of Barack Obama, he played a key role in formulating foreign policy guidelines. Since 2014, he was the White House’s senior director for European affairs at the National Security Council.

Ukraine said: I do not take Macron’s statements about the possible deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine very seriously. Macron wants to be at the head of NATO. But I don’t think there is a consensus on this in NATO. I would even say that in some ways it is the opposite: from the beginning of this conflict, NATO members have exercised the necessary caution to avoid escalation and direct conflict between NATO and Russia. For this reason I do not expect French, Polish or German troops to be sent to the front.

Charles A. Kopchan, who is currently a senior member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor of international relations at Georgetown University, and from 2014 to 2017 was a special assistant to the then US President Barack Obama and the senior director of European affairs at the National Security Council of this country. About the effects of sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine on the results of this battle, he said: Ukraine should be able to attack Russian targets deep in the front line. This is also true of Crimea, as these attacks increase the costs for Russia and could make it more likely that Russia will eventually be willing to end the war, adhere to a ceasefire, and possibly seek a negotiated solution – although I think it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will develop the combat capability to retake all of its territory from Russia. Of course, Ukraine was able to significantly weaken Russia’s Black Sea fleet, thanks in part to longer-range weapon systems and naval drones. This allowed Ukraine to reopen its ports for grain exports.

He added that Germany, the United States and its allies should discuss the next steps together. . It is not in Ukraine’s interest to use long-range missiles to penetrate deep into Russian territory. Such weapon systems must come with limitations. They should target relevant military targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

We are now clearly at an uncertain moment in the conflict, he added, largely because of It is a fact that the US Congress does not release the important aid package of 60 billion dollars for Ukraine. It is very important that Ukraine is given ammunition, air defense and economic support to maintain the front line. I think Biden underestimated how to hold together a bipartisan coalition to support Ukraine.

Former Obama adviser said: If I If I were Zelensky, I would advise him to focus on two tasks. The first task is the military reinforcement of the front line. Russia must be prevented from conquering more territories. The second task is to invest in Ukraine’s long-term political and economic resilience. He should work on the implementation of economic and political reforms necessary for membership in the European Union. In other words, we should focus on turning the 82 percent of Ukraine controlled by Kiev into a success story.

Russia may be able to do a little take over most of the territory here and there in Ukraine. Ukraine can also make limited advances in other frontline sectors. But in the coming months, the war will turn into a frozen conflict. I do not rule out the possibility that soon a ceasefire will be negotiated and talks about the future of Ukraine will take place. Although I am not optimistic about the success of these negotiations, it is worth a try.

The former US official went on to say about Zelensky’s situation in this situation: Part of the problem that What Zelensky is facing is a lack of domestic support. The vast majority of Ukrainians still believe in the complete liberation of Ukrainian soil. I have no objection to this goal. But in a good strategy it is not a question of what is pleasing to us. It is also a question of what is possible.

He added: “Given Ukraine’s very limited progress in its counter-attacks in 2023, I do not think that Ukraine have a real chance to drive Russian forces out of eastern Ukraine even with Taurus, Leopard and Abrams tanks and drones. Zelensky should focus more on what is possible and that is the protection of the remaining parts under the control of Kiev. We have done a lot for Ukraine. Kiev was given the necessary tools to repel the invasion of a far superior power. Great respect must be given to Ukraine for its determination and willingness to make sacrifices to repel aggression. I believe that in order to secure public support in the West, we need a strategy for Ukraine. We need to develop a strategy that combines means and goals and shows where we are moving toward a goal and how we will achieve it. But I’m not sure we have such a strategy right now. For this reason, we must focus on defense and reconstruction.

He also said about the decrease in readiness to help Ukraine among the people of the United States and Germany: We need more honest talks. We need on both sides of the Atlantic how the war in Ukraine will affect our domestic politics. Because we are witnessing the erosion of middle politics. This has already happened in the United States. Until recently this was not the case in Germany, but now we can see the increasing polarization in this country as well. Of course, this is not only about Ukraine. But the war in Ukraine has consequences such as the increase in energy prices and the influx of many Ukrainian refugees. I believe that illiberal populism, as represented by Trump in the United States or Le Pen in France, is a greater threat to the West than Vladimir Putin.

This former US official He further said: There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine has brought Russia and China closer together. This war has made Russia militarily dependent on North Korea and Iran. On the other hand, Moscow supports these countries in an unprecedented way.

He stated in another part of this conversation: The United States and China are moving fast. They are heading for a new cold war. An irreparable geopolitical rupture may occur. But I think the situation has eased somewhat from mid-2023. There is now a constructive dialogue between Washington and Beijing. Biden and Xi have at least broken the ice. The tensions and hostility that we witnessed a year ago after the downing of a Chinese balloon over the United States no longer govern relations.

And China has expressed concern over Taiwan and at the same time said: Yes, I am afraid of a war over Taiwan. But I don’t think it is imminent. Beijing knows very well that an attack on Taiwan will change the game. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine clearly showed this to China. Beijing does not want to be isolated in the same way. Although Russia has done a good job of circumventing sanctions, the West has essentially cut Russia out of the Western economy. Given the high level of interdependence between China, the United States, and Europe, the Chinese are not prepared to risk a fundamental break with the West. This is why I rate the risk of an all-out war between the US and China over Taiwan as relatively low. I’m more worried about an accident leading to a fight. Because there is a lot of military activity in the region. This creates a dangerous situation. Therefore, the revival of military talks between the US and China is a positive development.

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