A look at Türkiye’s approach in the Ukraine war; Can Ankara play the role of a mediator? – Part I

According to the international group Tasnim News Agency, the year 1402 is gradually coming to an end and still It is not clear what developments the Ukrainian issue will face in the coming year. One of the countries closely related to this issue is Iran’s western neighbor, Turkey.

Ankara’s political decision on how to deal with Russia’s attack on Ukraine is very similar to the parable of sleeping in the middle of a quilt. Because the Erdogan government, on the one hand, sold drones to Kiev, and on the other hand, the markets of Istanbul and Ankara became the arena for the presence of Russian tycoons, and the US Department of Treasury has repeatedly announced that some Turkish banks and companies are avoiding international sanctions. They have helped Russia. The Erdogan government has tried to score points on both fronts in the Ukraine war, but such an approach cannot be sustained in the long term. “Turkey, ” src=”https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1400/01/09/1400010911012434822488904.jpg”/>
So far, one of the most important results of the attack For the Erdogan government, Russia to Ukraine is that, after a difficult and fraught 70-year period in the NATO military alliance, for the first time, it gained the opportunity and possibility to use bargaining and scoring tools to agree to the accession of new members. use and in exchange for Sweden’s membership, get F-16 fighter from America.

But this is not the whole story and getting closer to Ukraine or Russia has different consequences for Ankara.

The story of a drone seller in the waters of the Black Sea

Even before Russia Ukraine attacked, Turkey tried to have warm and growing relations with Ukraine. Because the geographical location of Ukraine and the economic situation of this country are of vital importance for Erdogan’s team.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan have met many times and signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of strategic industries. The two countries were a turning point.

They also sent it as a donation to this country. Although other officials of Erdoğan’s government and the Justice and Development Party never spoke about Russia so openly, but the receiving of the badge of honor from Zelensky by the dignitaries and the finalization of the establishment of a joint drone factory in Ukraine is not something that Russia will ignore.The Kremlin announced that considers the aerial bombardment of the mentioned workshop as a legitimate target and as a result Turkey is currently acting with a cane in this case. Black is under the observation of Turkish drones. Such a thing means that Ankara seeks to repeat the example of Karabakh. In other words, in the same way that the effect of Turkish drones caused the defeat of Armenia against the Republic of Azerbaijan, they also dreamed of the war in Ukraine, but the fact is that this strategic weapon of the disrespectful could never ground Russia.

Is Turkey a powerful mediator of the Black Sea?

Some Turkish analysts, about the role of this country in the negotiation between Moscow and Kiev use exaggerated expressions.

Ms. Chigdam Oston, associate professor of Nişantaşı University in Istanbul, says: “Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has positioned itself as a regional power that can act as a mediator. It has strengthened its ability to operate in the international arena. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described Turkey’s position and the agreement, which played a facilitating role in the agreement between Ukraine and Russia, as a ray of hope. Because with Erdogan’s help, a joint coordination center including representatives of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey was established in Istanbul to monitor the implementation of the agreement. Another facilitating action of Turkey was the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine. More than 200 prisoners of war were released in September 2022 through Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

The professor of Nişantaşı University in Istanbul further said: “Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey has taken steps to present itself as a balancing actor between the East and the West without opposing Russia.” In the past, Turkey’s role in the Black Sea was considered unique. Although it was a NATO ally, it did not support the US presence in the region and opposed other allies such as Romania. Turkey’s current foreign policy, while emphasizing NATO membership, keeps diplomatic channels open with the East and connects both sides.” He has repeatedly enthusiastically announced his willingness to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, but has still failed to persuade Putin to engage in serious talks with Zelensky and his team.

An important point about the global credibility of the diplomatic role. Turkey in the case of Ukraine, this is America, NATO, the United Nations and the European authorities, have finally only mentioned the human dimensions of grain transfer from the Black Sea gate to Turkey and the Mediterranean, and they have only been willing to point out the role of Turkey in the food security of the region and the world. Not more than that.

What do the economic variables say?
About what the Ukraine war has brought to Turkey, We do not have clear statistics. But in a general and brief way, we can point out that in several sectors, Ankara got new benefits and a better financial position:
a) The sale of Turkish drones to Ukraine was a kind of marketing decree for the flag, and several countries in The Black Sea, the Balkans, Africa and Central Asia, agreed to sign a contract with Ankara.
b) Due to the interaction with Russia and Ukraine, Turkey got the great chance to get natural gas at a lower price than buy from Russia and face the Kremlin’s generosity and tolerance regarding the terms of payment.
C) Turkey’s crisis economy and the food consumption market in this country owes to the positive events that occurred due to the import of wheat and sunflower oil from Russia. and Ukraine happened and these two strategic materials reached the Turkish market at a low price and high volume. /Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1398/06/06/139806061309278118229204.jpg”/>
d) A significant number of wealthy Russian tycoons and companies agreed to take their capital to the Turkish market. Although part of this new economic event was hindered by the monitoring of American financial and intelligence agencies, most of it is still circulating. e) New conditions and obvious political tension between Russia, America and Europe. , caused Russian spendthrift tourists to prefer Turkey to other tourist destinations, and since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the number of tourists arriving from Russia to Turkey has increased by more than 55%.

In the section In the next part of this article, we will discuss whether the prolongation of the war between Russia and Ukraine is to the benefit of Turkey or to the detriment of Turkey. Secondly, if the war continues, will Turkey be forced to choose between two orbits, East and West?

Continues…

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