Türkiye’s approach in Ukraine; Is the prolongation of the war in Ankara’s favor? – The final part

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, in the previous part of this article, to some dimensions We mentioned the pragmatic policy of Erdogan’s government towards the war between Russia and Ukraine.

We said that in addition to selling drones to Ukraine and having the possibility of greater influence in the Black Sea region, hundreds of wealthy Russians also transferred their funds to Turkey. transferred and the Ankara government got points from both sides. At the same time, due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the issue of new members joining the NATO military alliance arose and Turkey was able to agree to join Sweden to NATO, get concessions from America and promise to receive F-16 fighter jets from America.

But despite all these concessions, it cannot be said that the situation is completely in Turkey’s favor. Due to the nature of Turkey’s relations with NATO and the West and Turkey’s geographical position in the Black Sea, there is a kind of fragility and uncertainty about Turkey’s interests. According to many experts and internal analysts in Turkey, the Erdogan government Russia should not sacrifice Turkey’s traditional relations with the West. Meanwhile, a group also believes that maintaining relations with Russia has valuable financial benefits for Turkey.

But in a general assessment, one of the unfavorable scenarios for Turkey in the Russia-Ukraine war is that it becomes a station Turkey’s choice is between East and West.

Reasons for the rapid growth of Turkey-Ukraine relations
short period After the independence of Ukraine and on February 3, 1992, diplomatic relations between Ankara and Kiev were established, but the highest level of development of relations is related to the Erdogan era. Turkey-Ukraine relations with the mechanism of the Strategic Council (YDSK), established in 2011, was promoted to the level of strategic partnership. In 2019, the volume of trade between the parties was 4.881 billion dollars. But Turkish contractors entered the Kyiv market very soon, and the total investment of about 600 Turkish companies operating in Ukraine is between 4 and 5 billion dollars, which is done through third countries. Also, the total value of 184 projects that companies Turkey’s contracting in Ukraine to date is 6.28 billion dollars. In the two years of 2018 and 2019 alone, the number of Ukrainian tourists who traveled to Turkey reached a total of 3 million people. In addition to the embassy in Kiev, Turkey also has a consulate in Odessa and Kharkiv.

One of the main brokers in the development of Turkey-Ukraine relations in the past years has been the use of the advantages of Ukraine’s economic market, the country’s resources, agricultural opportunities, and also the possibility of increasing Turkey’s influence in the Black Sea.

Morad Peririnchchi, a political analyst close to the Justice and Development Party and a member of the “Political, Economic, Social Studies” (SATA) think tank, said about Turkey’s goals in Ukraine: “Turkey’s long-term goal is to find a comprehensive solution for the crisis and guaranteeing permanent peace in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea. Although the medium-term goal of trying to hold bilateral talks with Ankara’s mediation appears to be a prerequisite, Ankara’s initiatives continue with the aim of achieving long-term goals. Türkiye’s influence and contribution in realizing this situation is an undeniable success. This success is not accidental. Currently, it cannot be said that Turkey’s efforts to end the conflicts and find a comprehensive solution have ended. Depending on the circumstances, Ankara has roles from facilitation to mediation and guaranteeing peace, and it seems that Erdogan will not give up on these plans.”

Has Turkey turned towards the East?
Concepts and goals such as moving away from the West, leaving NATO, developing relations with Russia and China, returning to the East, returning to Asia, are among the concepts that have special fans in Turkey, and the parties and politicians who support these slogans believe that Turkey should separate from the West and join the East.

The concept of axis change since long ago One of the main topics of discussion is Turkey’s foreign policy, and especially, after Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia, the possibility of a strategic alliance with Russia has been considered.

However, since the interests and the policies of Turkey and Russia in conflict areas such as Syria, Libya and Ukraine are against each other, it is wrong to think that these two countries can be considered as strategic allies. The government of Ukraine supports. In clear words, Turkey firmly wants to rejoin Crimea to Ukraine, and the appointment of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine to a Turk of Tatar descent pleased Erdogan’s government officials. Russia does not participate, but is careful not to allow any entity or individual to violate sanctions. But Türkiye’s challenges and troubles in Ukraine are not one or two! While protecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereign rights is a priority, dependence on Russian energy supplies has increasingly made Turkey need the Kremlin’s and Putin’s favor.

Is the prolongation of the war in the interest of Turkey?
If the war between Russia and Ukraine is prolonged, NATO will have to put more pressure on Russia, To be more precise and targeted, use Turkish tools as well. Due to Turkey’s geographical location near the Black Sea, Erdogan’s government will not only have to accept some of the defense demands of the West, but also have to participate in the area of ​​adhering to financial sanctions against Russia, and without a doubt, such a thing can cause Russia’s negative reactions. and put Turkey in a difficult position.

But on the other hand, even if the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine approaches the point of peace and a final agreement, the Crimea issue is one of the most important challenges. between Ankara and Moscow will remain unresolved.

In a general assessment, the prolongation of the war will make the balance difficult and fragile for Turkey, and it is possible that given Ankara’s obvious economic dependencies To Moscow, the situation will become more difficult for Erdogan’s government.

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