The rematch of Biden and Trump; Is the winner of the American election already known?

International Group Tasnim News – US Democrats and Republicans The United States officially announced the candidacy of Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election. In this way, if something unforeseen does not happen, the political duel between the former and current president of the United States will be repeated in November 2020, eight months from now.

Just a glance According to polls released last week, Trump is doing better than Biden. New York Times, CBS, Fox News, and Wall Street Journal polls all predict that Trump will win the November election by a margin of 2 to 4 percent.

Currently, the poll results are as follows that Trump’s victory over Biden in the presidential election is considered certain. On average, he is ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points in national polls, and more importantly, he has outperformed his rival in polls in several gray states, including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia.

Nevertheless, a look at some facts shows that all this does not mean that Trump’s victory against Biden is a foregone conclusion and he still has He will face many challenges heading into the November election.

The first problem facing Trump is that he faces more resistance from voters among Republican and independent voters. than the situation that Biden has among the voters of the Democratic Party and independents. //www.documentcloud.org/documents/24360792-iowa-poll-trump-vote” rel=”nofollow”>” published was visible. In this survey that was conducted in January, 43% of the supporters of Nikki Haley, Trump’s rival at the time in the Republican Party, said they would prefer the Democratic Party candidate in the race between Biden and Trump.

In the November elections, Donald Trump will not face Joe Biden as a first-time candidate and has a 4-year performance record behind him. In fact, this time the voters have to choose one of the two options whose initial acceptability has decreased due to their performance weaknesses.

Joe Biden with a poor 4-year record. He has been called the most unpopular president in the history of the United States and during his time in the White House, he has carried out and continued practically all of Trump’s policies, especially in the field of foreign policy. Despite this, it seems that Trump will have a more difficult task than his rival in the Democratic Party to win back the voters he drove away.

This issue in US media polls have also confirmed this. For example, the New York Times and Sinai College recently reported in a joint poll that the level of support for Biden among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters (91%) is slightly higher than the level of support for Trump among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%). ) percent.

The 86% Republican support figure for Trump is of course a high figure for him to be able to get permission to enter the White House once again in November. But in an election with close and tight competition, this small difference may change the weight towards the Democratic candidate. He is facing a federal lawsuit and hundreds of millions of dollars in fines, and he has not convicted his supporters of attacking the Capitol on January 6, 2021. All of this may give independent voters as well as undecided voters enough reasons to prevent him from re-entering the White House. Insider party voters are not unique to Trump. As it was said before, Biden’s performance has also led to the dissatisfaction of some of the supporters of the Democratic Party. Whether the appointment of the next president will be effective is a question whose answer will become clearer in the coming months, but at least now there are signs that Trump’s status among this group is slightly worse than Biden’s.

Another issue with the polls conducted between Trump and Biden is that Trump’s lead over Biden in almost all of these polls is within the “margin of error” and is not high enough to count on beyond the possibility of common polling errors. However, the frequency of Trump’s victories in the polls of many companies cannot be ignored either.

On the other hand, even if the polls are accurate, they are an indicator for predicting popular votes. We know that in American elections, popular votes do not necessarily determine the president. In America, voters do not directly elect the president. Instead, the Electoral College system determines the fate of US elections, with the winner trumping the winner of the majority of the popular vote. In several elections so far (including in 2016) a political candidate has not won despite receiving a higher number of votes. Polls usually predict public opinion, not the Electoral College opinion.

Apart from these factors, polls close to an election are stronger predictors than polls months in advance. it’ll be done. Voters’ opinions often change as the election approaches due to the developments surrounding each candidate.

Thus, the results of current polls, even if they are accurate, reflect the current state of mind. The days reflect the voters and it remains to be seen which candidate the votes will lean towards.