Asia will lead the economic growth of the world?

The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) published a report which stated that the Asian economy is expected to grow by about 4.5 percent in 2024, decelerating from its growth in 2023 to surpass and continue to be the biggest factor of global economic growth.

According to the report of the Asia Economic Outlook Index and the progress of the integration of the forum, despite facing various external economic challenges, the Asian economy will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate, which is supported by relatively strong consumption and active fiscal policies.

Economic growth of different regions of Asia

This forum predicted that based on the region, the economic growth rate of East Asia is expected to be equal to the economic growth rate of 2023, i.e. 4.3%, and the economic growth of South Asia will increase from 5.4% in 2023 to 5.8%. will find and maintain its position as the fastest region in Asia.

Meanwhile, economic growth in Central Asia is likely to slow to 4.3% from 4.5% in 2023, while economic growth in West Asia is expected to decrease from 2.5% to 3.5% in 2023. increase the percentage.

The report also pointed out that China will continue to be a major contributor to global economic growth, and its large market size will bring many benefits to the world.

Equality of purchasing power and trade

This report states: “In terms of purchasing power parity, Asia’s total economy is expected to account for 49% of the world’s GDP in 2024, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than in 2023. has increased”.

In terms of trade and investment, Asia is expected to reverse the downward trend in 2023 with the accelerated development of digital commerce, the revival of tourism in Asia, the continued development of regional-like economic and trade arrangements.

Comprehensive economic partnership and the positive effects of the restructuring of Asian value chains and industrial chains on regional economic integration are expected to emerge gradually and add new impetus to Asian trade and investment.

Employment

In the forecast of the employment situation, it is stated that due to the continuation of the economic recession, the global employment outlook for 2024 is not very optimistic and predicts relatively slow employment growth in 2024 in the densely populated areas of East and South Asia, which may result in overall employment growth. Asia, but the overall unemployment rate in Asia is expected to remain lower than the global level.

income

In terms of earnings, earnings growth “remains under considerable pressure” despite an increase in total weekly hours of full-time employment across most of Asia. Due to the wide diversity of income in different sectors, domestic income inequality in Asian economies can further intensify.

Li Baodong, Secretary General of Boao Association for Asia, said: This year’s annual meeting of “1+4” departments named “Global Economy”, “Science and Technology Innovation”, “Social Development”, “Examining Challenges Together” and has formed “international cooperation”.

He said: “We hope that through the discussion on the above sections, we can increase the consensus that the realization of sustainable development is the common interests of the world.”

The Secretary General of BOAO Association for Asia emphasized that solidarity and cooperation is the common responsibility of the international community.

Stock

According to the stable economic growth and easing of external monetary policies, stock indices in most Asian economies are expected to maintain their upward trend, exchange rates to increase, while the 10-year Treasury bond yield continues to decline. Also, the banking sector will see a further decrease in the ratio of non-performing loans in 2024.

Investment

The report also showed that in 2022, Asian economies showed strong resilience in investment activities and attracted a larger share of investment from countries other than Asia. The flow of foreign direct investment to Asia-Pacific economies amounted to 809.4 billion dollars, which has grown by 6.76% compared to the previous year and constitutes 62% of the inflow of international foreign direct investment.

Asian Development Bank

Based on data provided by the Asian Development Bank, between 2016 and 2030, the Asia-Pacific region needs about $569 billion annually to invest in renewable energy from 2016 to 2030, despite reaching a peak investment of $255 billion. Between 2008 and 2022, there is a significant annual deficit of $313 billion in the budget.

The main barriers to green investment and financing in the energy sector include policy and regulatory inconsistencies that affect pricing, access to finance due to high transaction costs and insufficient project preparation capacity, as well as reduced revenue potential due to high risks and financing costs. Finance is another obstacle.

Inflation

The report also predicted that, overall, inflationary pressures are expected to decline further in most Asian economies in 2024, noting that economies currently experiencing lower inflation will see an increase.

Boao Assembly for Asia

Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) aims to lay the foundation for promoting economic integration in Asia, gathering positive energy for the development of Asia and the world, and the 2024 annual conference will be held from March 26 to 29 in the resort city of Hainan Province in southern China. .

According to China, the Boao Forum for Asia was established 23 years ago and holds annual meetings with the participation of officials from the private, public and academic sectors in Asia and the world. The theme of this year’s Boao Forum is “Challenges and Shared Responsibilities of Asia and the World” and nearly 2,000 representatives from more than 60 countries and regions will participate in this event, and more than 1,100 journalists from about 40 countries and regions will also cover this event.

Source: ISNA