Persian Gulf area; The boom of tourism under the heavy shadow of the recession of the oil economy

Mehr News Agency, International Group: in 1401, when most countries of the world are still struggling with the consequences of the economic crisis caused by the corona virus. were The six countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council have overcome this crisis and recorded significant economic growth. This year, Saudi Arabia recorded the highest annual growth rate among the G20 countries with 8.7%, and the average growth rate of all countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council was 7.3%.

These countries have overcome the crisis Corona as well as the tensions that were going on in Ukraine, also relying on oil resources and following the increase in international demand for oil and gas and as a result the price increase A barrel of oil up to $120, they achieved a favorable growth in their GDP. Although other factors were also involved in this; For example, Qatar’s hosting of the soccer world cup brought many economic benefits for this country and its neighbors.

The favorable economic growth trend did not last in the following year. According to World Bank data, last year Qatar grew by 3.3%, United Arab Emirates grew by 2.8%, Bahrain grew by 2.7%, Saudi Arabia grew by 2.2%, Oman grew by 1.5% and Kuwait grew by 1. They recorded 3 percent, so that the average gross domestic growth of these countries recorded a figure of 1.3 percent, far from last year, and brought stagnation to the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.

What were the reasons for the recession?

The most important factor underlying such fluctuations in energy exporting countries is their dependence on oil and gas. This dependence causes, in addition to the written programs of each country and its foreign policy, all international events also have an effect on their GDP through influencing the energy market. This process is also true in relation to the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. Following the global economic recession, the price of crude oil dropped from $120 to $100 per barrel in 1402, and this caused the economic growth rate of these countries to drop.

In addition, oil exporting countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as part of the latest OPEC agreement Plus, to reduce their oil production up to 2 million barrels. This, along with the decrease in global oil prices, doubled the economic growth deficit. In the macro dimension, many central banks of oil-importing countries increased interest rates to deal with inflation, and one of the results of this was the decrease in the demand of these countries for crude oil.

Although the economic impulses caused by the Ukraine crisis were once managed by the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, the continuation This crisis and its global political and economic consequences, along with the Gaza war and instability in the region, have caused a serious disruption in the world economic order, and these countries are not immune to its results. In addition to the impact of such crises on the energy market, the security of the region is also one of the victims of the war, the direct result of which is the reduction of foreign investment near the disputed region and, as a result, the reduction of production and export growth in countries that depend part of their economy on have defined foreign investment.

Among other issues that can be mentioned as factors of this recession, the connection of the currencies of these countries The monetary system is the US dollar. In such a situation, any change in the global conditions of the US dollar will directly affect the economy of the mentioned countries. Last year, following the global economic recession and some efforts made by emerging economies, especially China and the BRICS countries, the dominance of the US dollar over the world economy was faced with the possibility of being questioned, and as a result, the economic system of any country where the value of the national currency It was tied to the US dollar and was affected by such conditions.

Energy

In the energy issue, the Persian Gulf countries have been on a double-edged sword for more than a decade; On the one hand, the main income of these countries is dependent on the export of hydrocarbons even after economic diversification, and on the other hand, the need of the world today is to move away from fossil energies and focus more and more on renewable energies.

This crossroads last year and with the United Arab Emirates hosting the climate change summit more than pre-emphasized; According to many energy analysts, there will be no place for hydrocarbon exporting countries in the future world with the use of green energy. However, the countries of the Persian Gulf revealed their plans for the use of renewable energy and declared their position that they will continue to extract and export fossil fuels as long as there is a demand for them, but They have also prepared post-oil.

But the problem is not so simple; In recent years, the most income of these governments has been from the export of oil and gas resources, and even it seems that investment in non-oil infrastructure will also face problems without oil revenues. Last year, the Saudi Aramco oil company surpassed the world’s largest oil companies, such as Shell and ExxonMobil, by recording its $161 billion profit.

Tourism

After the United Arab Emirates, other Gulf Cooperation Council countries also invested in their tourism industry. . Events such as Saudi Arabia hosting the annual Hajj for Muslims or Qatar hosting various sports events have played a significant role in the fruition of this industry in the mentioned countries.

Last year, the United Arab Emirates’ income from international tourists was 40.8 billion dollars, Saudi Arabia 21.7 billion dollars, Qatar was 16.2 billion dollars, Bahrain 4.8 billion dollars, Oman 2.9 billion dollars and Kuwait 700 million dollars. Tourism revenues in these countries, unlike Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan, did not decrease much even with the outbreak of the Gaza war.

Bahre Sakhan

The economy of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council last year, despite the growth of the tourism industry and the conclusion of new oil contracts and Gazi, due to fluctuations in the price of oil and also some international developments, suffered a recession.

This indicates that these countries have a long way to go for economic diversification and reducing reliance on oil revenues. They have, but they have to go through it. Because the continuation of rentierism of governments in the long term, especially with regard to the issues of the new world and the determination of countries to deal with climate change, will cause the era of wealth and glory of the countries of the southern Persian Gulf to end with the transition from fossil energies.