Armenia’s movement is still on the wrong track

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, on April 5, 17 April 1403, a meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was held in Brussels, where security guarantees for Armenia, Euro-Atlantic conditions for integration and the possibility of starting The accession process of this country to the European Union was discussed and investigated.

In this meeting, for the first time after the end of the second Karabakh war, regarding the complete transfer of Armenia from Russia’s sphere of influence and change The current situation in the region was discussed. Both the European Union and NATO see the current crisis in the relations between Russia and Armenia as an opportunity to become the only “security umbrella” in the region and weaken Russia’s influence.

Why Armenia decided to The path to join the European Union, what NATO can offer to this country and how these issues affect the interests of Russia and the countries in the region are questions that need to be answered.

At the same time, the talks between Western leaders and Armenia have escalated tensions throughout the South Caucasus region, and Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia have expressed concern that Western policies will create new geopolitical challenges in the region.

What was the content of the meeting?

In the final statement of the tripartite meeting held with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State of the United States, and Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, in support of “sovereignty , democracy, territorial integrity and socio-economic stability” of Armenia.

The head of the European Commission said: The European Union plans to allocate 270 million euros in 4 years to meet these needs. . Meanwhile, Washington plans to increase aid to Armenia to more than $65 million, which according to Blinken is a 50 percent increase compared to two years ago.

The European Union plans has announced itself to invest in businesses, especially Armenian SMEs, so that they can develop and expand their presence in new markets.

Von der Leyen said that The main areas of EU investment will be infrastructure projects, including the Black Sea power cable project, as well as renewable energy production. At the same time, according to Blinken, the United States plans to invest in Armenia in food security, digital infrastructure, energy diversification and expanding trade relations.

Both Washington and Brussels also plan to Support the integration process of more than 100 thousand Karabakh refugees in the Armenian society and provide housing, work and education for them. India, ” src=”https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1403/01/20/14030120121256963297742210.jpg”/>

Reasons for Russia’s dissatisfaction?

Obviously, the essential goal of Yerevan’s partnership with the European Union and the United States in the first place Creating more tension around Russia. One of its aspects, which was clearly mentioned in the words of the head of the European Union, was the efforts of the Armenian leadership to fight the circumvention of Western sanctions against the Russian Federation, which it considered an important factor in the success of the West’s anti-Russian measures.

On the other hand, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken pointed out that Washington and Yerevan agree on the future of the South Caucasus and want to create an “independent and strong regional power” Armenia. /p>

This American diplomat further mentioned this issue: “The United States intends to continue to Armenia to strengthen its democratic and economic stability”.

Pashinyan in this meeting by saying that Armenia is committed to the “common goals” between Yerevan, Brussels and Washington, put himself in a serious confrontation with Moscow put it.

In this context, in response to this meeting, Russia first clearly stated that a high-level meeting between Armenian representatives for Yerevan’s participation in Western structures is dangerous for Moscow, because Both Brussels and Washington directly call the Russian Federation their enemy and are in serious conflict with Moscow in the Ukraine conflict.

What did Armenia expect from the Brussels summit and what did it get? The collective security agreement was passed under the leadership of Russia. During this time, Yerevan tried its best to free itself from the Russian structures that it was integrated into even after independence in 1991.

These changes It started with the slogan of diversifying partners and allies in foreign policy by the Pashinian government and continued with a sharp change in the direction of Armenia’s foreign policy vector to the west. In this process, Yerevan tried to separate itself from Russia’s bosom and place itself in the arms of Brussels.

The main excuse that Pashinyan and the party His followers declared about their separation from Moscow, the lack of political support and support from Russia in the first place and the military entry of the structures of the collective security agreement from Armenia in response to the aggression of the Republic of Azerbaijan after the second Karabakh war.

Yervan declares in this regard that if the Collective Security Treaty Organization is not supposed to act in situations of conflict and strife of one of the members and does not defend the interests and territorial integrity of the members, participation in this treaty will not only serve the national interests of the member states. It does not, but it is like a chain on the hands and feet of the members.

On the other hand, the membership in the above agreement has created restrictions for Armenia, the most important of which is the inability to participate in other military agreements in order to strengthen the defense capability. This country regards Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan as Armenia’s regional enemies.

Therefore, Armenia has completely frozen all its activities in the form of the collective security agreement since a year ago. Finally, in a few weeks ago, Nikol Pashinyan revealed the country’s will to withdraw from the said agreement.

On the other hand, at the same time, Yerevan is working to get closer to the European structures. It worked. In such a way that by referring to the Council of Europe as the authority for resolving border disputes with Azerbaijan, he left Russia, which was the only authority for resolving disputes of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Also, cooperation increased itself with NATO and in the same year held a joint exercise with American forces in the outer region near Russia, which is considered the first security ring of this country.

After the end of the Cold War and The collapse of the Soviet Union was the first time that the foot of the United States forces was opened to the South Caucasus region in cooperation with Armenia, and this was considered a big provocative point for the Russians.

In the continuation of the presence of “Samantha Power” in charge of the International Development Agency of the United States, “Xavier Colomina”, the special representative of the NATO Secretary General on Caucasus issues, accepting the review of the candidature status in the European Union and finally the visit of “Jens Stoltenberg” of the NATO Secretary General in Armenia, the country’s move towards It speeded up the Western structures and indicated the progress of Armenia’s partnership with the Western countries to a new qualitative level.

Recent events show that Armenia, along with the United States and the European Union, are trying to form a new situation in the region and weaken Russia’s position in the South Caucasus region.

Finally, the result of the policy of diversifying strategic allies and this change of approach towards the west for Yerevan Financial aid and investment in some infrastructures, including the energy sector, was the country where there was the greatest dependence on Russia.

But the important thing that distanced Yerevan from Moscow was the lack of financial aid. And it was not the failure of the Russians to supply the energy needs, but the most important need of Armenia was to find strategic allies in the security and military fields, who can protect the country’s territorial integrity against the threats and attacks of Baku and Ankara when necessary.

Even none of the western countries are willing to supply some military equipment to Armenia due to the use of gas exported from Baku to Europe, and only France is willing to export non-aggressive equipment such as “GM 200” defense systems. “, to deliver Bastion armored vehicles and Mistral radars to this country, which, considering the conditions and defense power of Armenia against its two hostile neighbors, namely Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan, is in no way a supplier of Armenia’s countless needs.

The point that should be mentioned in the process of changing the direction of Armenia’s foreign policy is that none of the strings that Yerevan is holding on to, such as the European Union, NATO, France and even India, have the ability to defend the territorial integrity of this country. During the invasion by Azerbaijan and Turkey, they do not have it, and these allies in the best conditions can condemn the actions of these two countries towards Armenia in international forums in a political action, and they certainly will not have a field presence in the defense of Armenia’s borders.

Do they welcome Armenia in the European Union or NATO?

The European Union has named the liquidation of Russia’s 102nd military base in Gyumri, as well as Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union, among other important conditions for examining the status of Yerevan’s candidacy in this union. It seems that the implementation of such measures and the possibility of Armenia joining NATO and the European Union are far from reach, and in the near future, Armenia will not join the Western Union.

At political levels, it is possible to A partial decision should be made by the European Union that Armenia has the ability to apply for membership in any of the Western structures. Of course, we have already seen this model of Western interaction and its result in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

The only result of this game on the part of Western countries has been to separate these countries from Russia’s sphere of influence. However, it should be seen whether Armenia’s presence in these organizations is needed and whether there is any preparation for this? It does not have special territorial advantages. Armenia is surrounded by four other countries that are neighbors with two warring countries from the west and east. Also, economically, Yerevan has no relative advantage for the European Union. So, as a rule, the joining of this country to the structure of the European Union, if it is not a political matter, is impossible in terms of the legal rules of the European Union Charter. Turkey will be in trouble and Ankara will not allow Baku’s position as its most important regional partner to weaken. For example, we can mention Sweden and Finland, how the president of this country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prevented them from joining the NATO structure.

Finally, it seems that Yerevan It has made a big mistake to change the course of its foreign policy and consider diversifying its foreign partners as requiring distance from Moscow. If by restoring its relations with Moscow and also strengthening its strategic relations with Tehran, it can be sure of the capabilities of these two potential partners (according to their desire not to change the international borders in the South Caucasus region) in protecting the territorial integrity of Armenia. /p>

The near future will show what the US and EU can actually offer to Armenia and how Russia and Iran will respond to defend their positions in the region.

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