Does energy prevent the deepening of the gap between Baku and Brussels?

according to the international group Tasnim news agency, when the flag of the Republic of Azerbaijan Raised at the headquarters of the Council of Europe in January 2001, it is thought that this country will follow the path of integration into European structures at the fastest pace. However, 23 years later, Azerbaijan’s powers in The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has been suspended, citing systematic violations of human rights (especially harassment of journalists and independent activists). We can also refer to the decision of the Security Council against Baku, which was another sign of increasing tension between Baku and Western capitals.

The relationship between Baku and Brussels has always been controversial. On the one hand, in the mid-2000s, Azerbaijan, rich in oil and gas, entered the European market and signed strategic partnership agreements with almost a third of the EU countries.

On the other hand, in this For years, there has been no talk of close political interaction between Baku and the capital of European countries, and no effective steps have been taken towards political integration between the two capitals.

The last bilateral political agreement was signed in 1999. And all subsequent attempts to reach new agreements were blocked by Baku’s disruptions and postponed. For the most part, bilateral relations between the EU and Azerbaijan have followed a well-established framework centered on energy, trade and to some extent human rights.

But 2020 will see the first major changes. We were in Baku-EU relations when Azerbaijan started a 6-week war with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Western structures gave implicit support to Yerevan. But in 2022 and after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, we saw new changes in the type of confrontation between Baku and Brussels. The changes were caused by the increase in the political challenges of the European Union just a few months after the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. to show off, appeared in the role of a mediator and for the first time organized negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia with the mediation of the Council of Europe in Brussels.

The West was working towards resolving the conflict between Baku and Yerevan, with symbolic results: the sides exchanged prisoners and maps of minefields, and recognized each other’s territorial integrity, paving the way for more substantive peace talks.

However, after Azerbaijan took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, the EU-mediated conflict resolution process has slowed considerably. The escalation of military conflicts and the mass migration of Karabakh Armenians added to the tension in Baku’s relations with its Western partners. Although there was no significant practical reaction from the West to the actions of the Azerbaijani authorities in the international scene.

It should also be noted the growing tensions between Azerbaijan and the EU member states. Political conflicts, such as the conflict between France and the Republic of Azerbaijan, which dates back to 2020.

These contradictions, especially since 2023, when the European Union decided to establish a monitoring board in Armenia and Paris started selling military equipment to Yerevan, it intensified. Baku is confident that this mission, with the stated goal of “promoting stability in the border areas” of Armenia, is a purely French project. But in fact, 23 EU countries participate in this initiative, that is, we are talking about a pan-European consensus.

At the same time, the recent statements of the Kremlin, Armenia’s traditional ally, show that Russia’s priorities have changed and now increasingly supports Azerbaijan. Of course, we are not talking about a Moscow-Baku military alliance, because this is far from becoming a reality. But it seems that from a tactical point of view, the positions of Moscow and Baku in the Karabakh region have an overlap, and it should be added that in the current situation, Baku is more interested in an alliance with Ankara than with the European Union.

Also, the recent repression of independent journalists and activists in Azerbaijan has put more pressure on the country’s relations with the West.

Given all these issues, these questions are raised. : Are Baku’s relations with the European Union heading towards a complete break? Can Azerbaijan completely break away from Europe?

The answer to these questions is negative, at least in the current situation, so far, Baku has only pretended to distance itself from the West in words and nothing. which indicates the possibility of real and practical changes in the near future, has not shown itself. This is largely due to the interdependence of the parties. But this situation can be faced with a serious and unexpected move by the parties with a serious change of position and cause this sinusoidal relationship to undergo another change of direction.

Energy, the driving engine of the Baku-Brussels relationship

But the important point that During these years, the link between the European Union and Azerbaijan has been the cooperation in the field of energy as the heart of this mutual dependence. In general, Azerbaijan’s reserves cover only a small part of Europe’s total gas needs, but for some countries, such as Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, and recently Romania and Hungary, it plays a very important role. In addition, the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Slovakia, Croatia and even Austria is expected to increase. It is currently under Western sanctions, it is very important from a strategic point of view. In addition, the obligations mentioned by the parties in the contracts are a serious obstacle to any attempt to break the agreements, because it requires the payment of fines in the amount of millions, if not billions of dollars.

Azerbaijan also In turn, it is highly dependent on energy relations with the European Union. Almost 90% of the country’s income comes from the sale of oil and gas, which guarantees its political and economic stability. Azerbaijan has received 19 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas to the European Union in 2023 alone. While the country has significant buyers from outside the European Union for its oil exports, its gas exports are mostly to the European market.

Furthermore, according to forecasts In 2024, Azerbaijan’s income from gas export will be much higher than oil export. This country extracts about 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually and plans to sell about half of this volume to the European Union. Even if Azerbaijan tries to diversify its exports, it is unlikely to find a buyer that can match the volume of the European Union.

Trade corridors, the second base of the relationship

International trade and transportation routes are another important aspect of relations between Europe and Azerbaijan, which is growing increasingly. are. The war in Ukraine and recent disruptions in maritime trade through the Red Sea have drawn attention to the Trans-Caspian international shipping route (known as the Middle Corridor), which connects China and Southeast Asia to Europe. According to existing maps, one of the branches of this corridor passes through the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Baku sees the Middle Corridor as an opportunity to attract large investments and it is the only way to generate income comparable to oil and gas knows In Brussels, the Middle Corridor is seen as a strategic alternative to existing routes, and European and international financial institutions have recently announced a €10 billion investment in the Middle Corridor.

relationship perspective

In other words, the deep interdependence between the European Union and the Republic of Azerbaijan is a gap and It makes a big separation between Baku and Brussels unlikely. Both sides will actively continue to expand relations in the field of energy and trade.

However, negative and destructive factors such as human rights, freedom of expression, protecting the rights of linguistic and religious minorities, etc. … cannot be ignored either. Baku prioritizes economic interests and appears intent on using its growing influence to develop purely commercial relations with the EU. However, the level of acceptance of such an approach by Brussels is still not clear.

Author: Mehdi Saif Tabrizi, researcher of Russia and Caucasus issues

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