Examining the role of Iran, Türkiye and Russia in the equations of the Caucasus

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the Nagorno-Karabakh war It has not only changed the geopolitical landscape of the region significantly, but has become a factor in changing the role of foreign actors in the Caucasus and the competition of regional actors.

With Azerbaijan’s victory, new borders will be drawn in the region. has been The balance of regional power has also changed and the potential for regional cooperation has increased. Azerbaijan has gained political and military dominance, the power and influence of Armenia has decreased significantly, and Georgia considers itself in danger with Azerbaijan and Armenia signing a peace agreement.

Russia with Calling for the placement of peacekeeping forces and a ceasefire agreement, increasing its military presence in the region, and Turkey as a regional rival of Russia with a strong political return to the region and a military presence in Azerbaijan, new conditions, the ground for opening up the region and increasing communication It has provided regional and international through military and economic cooperation, new or reopened transportation corridors, railways and energy transportation projects.

Trade and transportation and Transfer is the most likely area of ​​cooperation between regional rivals and may continue simultaneously or independently of the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Russian-brokered war and ceasefire has been a major blow to European and US initiatives to resolve the conflict through the format of the OSCE Minsk Group.

While the West is preparing He emphasized for participation, the presence and competition of regional actors (Turkey, Russia and Iran) has provided more credibility to deal with difficult security issues in the region.

Among other factors involved in The geopolitical change of the South Caucasus, Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the fragile regional situation. New dangers that have turned the region into an unstable security environment.

At the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have tried to communicate with the Western bloc and at the same time Now avoid attracting Russia’s attention, but with the prolongation of conflicts in the region and Russia’s control over some regions of Ukraine, serious concerns arose in all countries that the possibility of Russian influence in other regions would increase.

However, it is also possible that the shake-up of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and changes in the international order may alter historical patterns of behavior that may at best lead to regional unity against a common threat. to be All countries may need to mitigate the consequences of Russian pressure and protect their national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence.

The war in Ukraine may help continue peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. . The European Union, and recently the United States, have used all their efforts to influence the region, both in the Karabakh issue and in the war in Ukraine. In general, the room for maneuver of foreign actors has increased.

There is an awareness of the change in the regional power balance between Russia and Turkey among regional powers and against foreign power. Türkiye can increase its position in the region and become a challenge to dominate Russia. However, this would require a reshaping of Russian politics. In the current situation, the countries of the region will undoubtedly benefit from a suitable platform to discuss the current situation and the possible future with foreign powers.

In general, understanding the consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine and the future of the war in Ukraine is impossible to predict, because the situation in the region is constantly changing. However, it seems that according to the current situation, the results of regional crises will be more severe and widespread. considered a reaction to Ukraine’s desire to choose its future, the future of this war will reverberate throughout the South Caucasus. Also, Russia’s war against Ukraine has had negative and positive effects on Azerbaijan. has been It has also had a negative impact on Azerbaijan’s trade relations with Russia, currently Azerbaijan’s number one import partner, resulting in lower remittances from Russia.

Despite the prolonged War and the possibility of Russia’s weakness, in the view of some analysts, many of the levers of Moscow’s strong control in the region still remain. It is important to distinguish between the decline of Russia’s soft power and political influence and its many remaining tools (military, hybrid, political, economic, and cultural).

Thus, Russia’s ability to increase Hegemony and competition with other regional actors will not necessarily diminish with developments in Ukraine. In addition, since Moscow considers the South Caucasus as one of the most important areas under its influence, it is logical that under no circumstances will Russia vacate the field of competition and will not allow other regional actors and foreign actors to gain power.

What is certain is that Russia will not leave the South Caucasus and will not abandon its goals. Instead, it is regrouping, repositioning, and shifting its focus among its partners and policies. This includes maintaining and exploiting economic and military dominance in Armenia, intensifying pressure on Georgia and establishing political and communication relations with Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey.

Russia’s recent actions in the region It shows that Moscow is repositioning rather than retreating. It manages its declining influence by balancing relations, cooperation and competition with other regional powers such as Turkey and Iran, and by changing its tactics, for example by increasing its stake in transport and connectivity. p dir=”RTL”>Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have gradually gained more self-confidence on the world stage and each is trying to limit its dependence on Russia by diversifying its foreign policy.

Georgia has strengthened its ties with the European Union, China, and to some extent the United States, while Azerbaijan is seeking closer ties with Turkey, Israel, Central Asian countries, and a number of European countries.

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After the tragic loss of Karabakh, Armenia has tried for closer interaction with the European Union, closer to Turkey and even military ties with India and some European countries.

Instead of being an arena of competition between Russia and the West, the South Caucasus has become a very crowded geopolitical space where 6 major powers are competing for influence. As relations between the West and Georgia and Azerbaijan remain complicated, Russia aims to minimize the regional presence of the West and its allies in the region. There is also Turkey is a key ally of Azerbaijan and also enjoys close relations with Georgia, while Armenia enjoys the support of Iran. Russia-backed South cuts off pressure. The successful completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is one of its examples. Another push by Baku and Ankara is to open a new route through the southernmost province of Armenia, Sivnik.

Iran has also won significant victories. Signing an agreement with Baku on the transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its region in Nakhchivan through Iranian territory. Tehran has also promoted work on the North-South International Transport Corridor, which runs from southern Iran through Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea to Russia. Other plans include the development of roads through Armenia that could provide a strong link between Iran and the Black Sea ports of Puti and Batumi via Georgia.

In general, given the crises Regional and new geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus, what governs the new equations between regional actors and foreign actors and its effects on the region, is the creation of transparency of interests between regional competitors (Turkey, Iran, Russia). This transparency of interests is realized with understanding on economic cooperation and its expansion.

With the increase of economic cooperation, political ambitions are reduced and the transparency of interests among the dominant domestic competitors and with Establishing political understandings, the presence of foreign actors from the region will decrease. But as long as each of the domestic competitors are looking for increasing their hegemony in the South Caucasus according to their maximum interests, no positive geopolitical changes have occurred in the region and the path of influence of competitors and foreign actors in the region will also expand.

Note: Masoume Mohammadi, an expert on Russia and the Caucasus

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