Western scenarios for Ukraine; From complete failure to land loss

Ukraine is losing the war with Russia, but this defeat is significant in several ways; As the US aid package to Kiev stalls in Congress, senior Ukrainian officials are increasingly warning that defeat is imminent and that Ukraine’s failure to fight Russia could take many forms, including the loss of some key, controlled territory. Their arrival should be done by Russia.

The Business Insider news site writes in a report, “Following the blocking of the US financial aid package in the amount of 60 billion dollars, Ukraine’s battle with Russia has become extremely desperate. The Ukrainian army is facing a severe shortage of ammunition and artillery, and in some positions it has no weapons at all, while it is struggling with many problems to counter Russian attacks.

Congress votes to release the expected aid package to Ukraine on Saturday, and there are glimmers of hope among Ukrainians, but according to analysts, if this aid package is not approved and its European allies fail to help, Ukraine’s defeat is certain. and maybe it can be done in different ways.

Complete failure

Experts at the American think tank for the study of war believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is pursuing maximum goals in Ukraine, which they claim will lead to the “complete occupation of Ukraine and the West”. This process may eventually lead to the control of all of Ukraine by Russia.

Putin has repeatedly denied the existence of Ukraine in his speeches, and last year he pointed to a 17th-century map of Europe to defend his theory that Ukraine is not a real country.

Oleksandr Danilyuk, a former senior adviser to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, claimed in a post on the blog of the Royal United Services Institute that “the complete destruction of Ukraine is the main goal of Russia.” It is clear that if Ukraine loses its support from the West, Putin may achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainians and erasing Ukraine from the map of Europe. Despite the tangible tragedy of the situation in Ukraine, the serious consequences of this failure for the West and especially America as the leader of the free world will be no less than a disaster.”

Loss of lands

The American media further wrote that some experts think that Russia is looking for a massive attack in the summer of 2024 to break the defense lines of Ukraine and take a key city or region under its control.

“Brian Sperling”, one of the analysts of “RAND” think tank, said: “The main problem is that it is not clear from where this attack can be carried out. The lack of ammunition and personnel in Ukraine gives Russia more opportunity to choose the time and place of its attack in a long battle front”.

While Ukraine was clearly focused on its counteroffensive last year, it allowed Russia to build up fortifications to defend its positions, so a Russian attack could hit any part of the country’s 620-mile front line. happen with Ukraine.

Russia seeks to control Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, which is only 18 miles from the Russian border.

George Beebe, the former director of Russia analysis in the CIA, recently said that Russia is looking to increase and consolidate its territorial goals. “A Russian victory over Ukraine is likely to include control of the east of the Dnieper River and the creation of a ‘buffer zone’ that separates Russian-controlled territory from the rest of Ukraine, as well as building defensive fortifications to ensure that it is difficult to divide Ukraine through new offensives by Kiev,” he said. It will be”.

Sperling went on to say: “Russia’s victory would probably be a form of ceding large parts of land to Russia, but it does not seem that Kiev would agree to such an agreement.”

Campaign against NATO

Business Insider writes that some analysts at institutions such as the Institute for the Study of War have warned that Russia might use compromise with a defeated and weakened Ukraine and launch a new attack against Ukraine and then against its allies in the West.

Other analysts are skeptical and believe that the Russian army will not be in a position to carry out a new large-scale attack, given the losses it suffered in this war.

But according to “George Beebe”, the former director of Russia analysis in the CIA, even if the American aid is released, it will not be enough to enable Ukraine to withdraw the Russian forces.

This means that in any scenario, Ukraine must give up its territory either officially or unofficially.

Source: ISNA