Does the law of “foreign factors” bind the hands of the West in Georgia? – The final part

According to the Tasnim group, it seemed that both the opposition and non-governmental organizations protested in vain. At the beginning, the Georgian Dream Party showed its determination to defend the vision and proposed bills, did not resort to blackmail, ignored provocations and did not back down against street riots.

However, the West He openly supported the protesters not only to defend his investments and programs in Georgian “civil society”. But because the Georgian authorities also moved towards strengthening national sovereignty by distancing themselves from Western standards, although this movement and distance was very small.

Georgia’s move towards more national sovereignty The current period did not begin, but began when Tbilisi started the path of partial normalization of its relations with Moscow. Then the Georgians explained their action with economic reasons and Washington also accepted this small change of approach from the Georgian government.

After the start of Russia’s special operations in Ukraine, Georgia (despite the request (Kiev’s many leaders) not only refused to open a second front in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but also refused to join the anti-Russian sanctions. and the United States also accepted this action as a matter of course for the survival of the political system of Georgia.

Washington’s side is not eternal and the government’s turn and some biases towards Russia can face the anger of America and shake the country’s political system.

This issue can intensify when the situation for the United States Not going well on the Ukrainian front. Therefore, the ruling party of Georgia Dream decided to limit those who are openly active in the civil society and political environment to promote Western policies and who can be effective in political and social trends with the aforementioned bills. But Washington no longer wanted and could not remain silent in front of this action of the ruling party. firmly supports, but strongly supports the President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, in opposition to the government of this country. Roshan considered the people of Georgia to be incompatible towards European integration and democratic development.

The US Embassy announced in a statement: The day of the preliminary approval of the bills was “Georgia’s Black Day of Democracy” and following this law will affect relations Georgia is harming its Western strategic partners and undermining the important work that many Georgian non-profit and people’s organizations are doing to help their countrymen. The confrontation of the police forces with rioters is not considered a violation of human rights, but the Commission and the European Union, through the words of “Joseph Burrell”, the head of the European Union’s foreign policy, states that these bills are incompatible with the values ​​of the European Union.

The approval of these two bills has two conditions. Of the 12 conditions, it violates the creation and maintenance of a suitable environment for civil society organizations, as well as the guarantee of media freedom that Georgia must comply with in order to be granted EU candidate status.

In fact, Brussels, according to another narrative He supported the protesters, saying that this bill contradicts the dreams of Georgians about integration into the structures of a free Europe, and if this bill is passed, Georgia will not be allowed to enter the European Union.

Now, it seems, the US and the EU are ready to prepare the ground for another government crisis or another color revolution in Tbilisi. For example, at the hands of the country’s president, Salome Zurabishvili, who, according to him, this law, which no one needs, did not appear out of nowhere. These rules have been dictated to us by Moscow.

He has already said that he will veto this bill.

So in the current situation The ruling party has two options. Either fight for his own sovereignty and to strengthen the national sovereignty of Georgia and proceed until the end of the approval of the bills, or refuse to approve these bills like last year, which seems unlikely considering the nearness of the parliamentary elections. Because not only the respect and authority of the party, but also the principles of Georgian governance will be questioned.

What is the position of Russia?

After the start of unrest in Georgia following the approval of bills on the transparency of the activities of foreign agents in the Georgian parliament by the ruling party and the establishment of a connection between the above-mentioned laws and the Kremlin, Moscow has tried to exercise restraint and non-interference. The political developments in Georgia should not make the fire of riots flare up.

But the Russians are sure that the unrest in Georgia is in line with the threat to their vital interests and security in the foreign lands near Russia, which is caused by the West, especially the forces Affiliated to the United States is being formed in the civil society of Georgia.

According to the existing trends, Russian experts and politicians consider 3 scenarios for developments in Georgia.

1- In the first scenario, the United States is trying to destroy the opposition by creating unrest in Tbilisi, who have resisted the Westerners’ desire to make political decisions in favor of the West and the United States. From this point of view, this operation is Washington’s first reaction to the Kremlin’s efforts to integrate “South Ossetia” and “Abkhazia” into the Union of Russia and Belarus.

2- The second scenario is the occurrence of a “revolution”. “Rangi” is emphasized in Georgia. In this view, two paths are considered to fulfill the demands of the United States. 1- In this process, the tensions created in Georgia under the leadership of President Salome Zurabishvili and the American-made civil society in this country will continue until the ruling party of Georgia’s Dream and “Irakli Kobakhidze” » The prime minister of this country and especially Ivanshvili, the political godfather of Georgia’s dream, who has pro-Russian tendencies, should severely weaken and hand over the entire government to Westerners in the upcoming elections.

3-Scenario 3 Ukrainization of Georgia is for Russia. This scenario is currently the dominant scenario in the Kremlin, and Moscow politicians understand the developments in Tbilisi with this approach. In this scenario, the main goal pursued by the United States is to turn Georgia into a hostile region with Russia and to equate the performance of Salome Zurabishvili, the president of Georgia, with his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Zelensky.

Summary

Given the course of events of the last few weeks, such as the terrorist acts in Moscow’s Crocus Hall, it seems an attempt to disrupt The Kremlin’s focus is on the ongoing war in Ukraine.

This type of measures is not only to influence the situation in the battlefield of Ukraine, and broader goals should be considered for the destructive actions of the West in the first layer of Russian security. One of the most important of these goals can be to have a destructive effect on one of the main arteries of Russia’s economic life, i.e. transportation corridors. Russia considered a region after the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, the reasons for Georgia’s protests can be found in the geopolitical and military-strategic confrontation between Russia and the West.

The new game of the West does not allow Moscow to shape the system of regional alliances it wants in Transcaucasia. to give From the point of view of the Western community, Moscow must face serious and severe competition in this region. The European Union and the United States pursue their projects against Russia with a geopolitical background and with the aim of isolating this country and neutralizing the benefits from the North-South corridor.

And finally, it seems It turns out that the disturbances and protests in Georgia are planned under a larger project against Russia’s interests in the Caucasus region, and accordingly, several possible scenarios can be considered for it.

1- Change of power in Georgia with the aim of Ukrainianizing this country and creating a new front against Russia. 2- The establishment of extensive sanctions by the Georgian government against Russia, in which case important economic programs such as the North-South Corridor (closing the Lars-Alia road in order to cut off the land connection between Armenia and Russia) or the passage of Russian gas lines to Turkey will be difficult. is faced

Mehdi Saif Tabrizi, a researcher in Russia and the Caucasus

end of message/