The reasons for the overflow of Western aid to the interest playground called Ukraine
| By creating a war of attrition and providing financial and military aid to Ukraine in a long-term process, the West intends to disrupt Russia's strategy towards Ukraine, but the provision of these resources from the West will take place as long as the interests of the West are tied to the Ukraine crisis. |
According to Tasnim news agency, since 2014, Ukraine has become one of the challenges has become important in the relationship between the United States and Russia. However, the passage of time has not helped to resolve the crisis. Instead, parallel to the increase in tension between the two countries and Russia’s determination to counter the expansion of NATO, the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent crisis in relations between Russia and the West have been increasing.
Ukraine is the playground of Western interests
The United States will play a big role in deciding the outcome of this war had Arming Ukraine and providing Ukraine with Western support packages will force Russia to eventually reach some sort of agreement, most likely a cease-fire in which Russia retains control of much of Ukraine’s territory.
If Ukraine does not receive significant arms from abroad, Russia’s greater industrial capacity will ultimately win this battle for Moscow, resulting in a Russian takeover of Ukraine. Therefore, by creating a war of attrition and providing financial and military aid to Ukraine during a long-term process, the West intends to disrupt Russia’s strategy towards Ukraine.
But we should not ignore this point It was said that these resources will be supplied from the West as long as the West’s interests are tied to the Ukraine crisis, and if the interests of the United States of America and its allies are not met, they will not provide any assistance to Ukraine.
If Ukraine is able to defend itself U.S. aid to Ukraine’s agricultural sector will mean little if not against Russian aggression in general. A weakened Ukraine puts most of Ukraine’s agricultural land, labor and infrastructure at risk, with the potential for Russia to use Ukraine’s agricultural capabilities and products to its advantage.
Supply Ukraine’s defense capability is important not only for the survival of Ukraine, but also for the survival of the agricultural sector and the availability of Ukrainian exports as an alternative to Russian exports. While strong military aid is of primary importance to the survival of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, the United States and other donors should also consider increasing investment in improving Ukraine’s agriculture, given its importance to Ukraine’s economy and global food security and declining soft power. /p>
US plans to send more military advisers to Ukraine
Any failure of Ukraine against Russia will have heavy and costly consequences for the interests of the West, which can be mentioned.
Consequences of the failure of Ukraine for the West
- Mass migration (millions of people) Ukrainians to the West, which will lead to a refugee crisis in Europe and beyond
- Crisis in US-European relations
- Confrontation Russia and Central European countries, including fear of Russia’s involvement in their domestic politics to overthrow their governments or incite opposition movements
- China may become more emboldened to attack Taiwan
- Economic crisis and food security
Ukraine crisis, security challenge Global Food
Ukraine is one of the major exporters of food commodities such as wheat, corn and vegetable oil. The inevitable decline in these exports is now sending shockwaves throughout the food system.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused the largest escalation of a military crisis related to global food insecurity in at least a century. has done. Although the issue has dropped from the headlines, its effects continue: the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts that millions of people will still be chronically malnourished in 2030 because of Russia’s war.
During the war, Ukraine’s agricultural sector has been the main target of Russian attacks, the European Union and the United Nations estimated that the war caused a total of $40.2 billion in damage to Ukraine’s agricultural sector. The World Bank and partners estimated the damage to the irrigation sector at 380.5 million dollars. Damages have almost certainly increased since February 2023.
The Kakhovka Dam breach on June 6, 2023 destroyed irrigation infrastructure and rendered the area’s farmland unusable. In July 2023, Russia terminated the Black Sea Grain Plan, which had allowed the safe export of most Ukrainian grain through three Ukrainian Black Sea ports, and immediately escalated attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure. Between July and December 2023, the UN recorded 31 attacks that damaged or destroyed Ukraine’s grain production and export capabilities.
Russia benefits from attacks on Ukraine’s agriculture sector It takes a significant amount. Attacks on agriculture are widespread attacks on Ukraine’s economy, as agriculture is the main source of Ukraine’s GDP and export earnings.
Attacks on Ukraine’s maritime export infrastructure have forced the country to export more of its grain through its European neighbors, which has caused trade tensions that undermine European support for Ukraine.
In addition, restricting agricultural exports Ukraine has disrupted agricultural markets, affecting food-importing countries and creating gaps for Russia to fill and exploit through its agricultural production and exports.
Ukraine produces less wheat and more corn than Russia, but Ukrainian agricultural production and exports of both commodities have declined due to the conflict. Compared to the 2020-2021 season, the last season not affected by the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s wheat exports for 2023-2024 are expected to decrease by 11 percent and Ukrainian corn exports by 15 percent.
Ukraine’s agricultural exports have been suspended since February 2022 due to several factors, and after five consecutive months of embargo on sea exports, UN mediation was implemented in July 2022 and reactivated Ukraine’s sea exports.
From July 2022 to July 2023, Ukraine exported 32.9 million tons of grain to 45 countries around the world, including 725,000 metric tons of grain to the World Food Program (WFP).
Along with land routes through EU-backed “Solidarity Lines”, BSGI helped stabilize Ukraine’s agricultural economy, although it did not enable Ukraine to return to pre-war maritime export levels. As a result of the BSGI suspension, Ukraine declared a “humanitarian corridor” or “Ukrainian corridor” through which it exports grain from its three Black Sea ports, with ships hugging the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria and heading towards The Bosphorus Strait is leaving.
In December, Ukraine sent 4.8 million tons of grain through the humanitarian corridor, which was more than exported under the BSGI in any month. Given the possibility of any Russian attack on civilian shipping to alienate shipping or food-importing countries from Ukraine, the viability of the Ukraine Humanitarian Corridor depends on strengthening the defense capabilities of the Ukrainian Navy as well as Moscow’s risk calculations.
While Ukraine’s Humanitarian Corridor has helped to maintain and even increase the country’s mariculture exports, ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea have created new threats.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, nearly 27 percent of Ukraine’s buckwheat exports will be affected if the Red Sea hostilities continue. Transportation disruptions increase transportation costs for exporters, reduce prices paid to Ukrainian producers, and increase prices paid by consumers, including consumers in food-insecure countries.
According to the Food Security Information Network’s Global Report on Food Crises, 258 million people will face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2022, the highest figure in the report’s history, at least in part due to The reason is the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting shocks. Food, Fertilizer and Energy Markets At the same time, the cost of humanitarian aid increased sharply due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, monthly operating costs are $28 million higher than before the attack.
Rising global food prices have increased the cost of goods purchased and distributed by organizations such as WFP and UNICEF. Is. At the same time, rising local food prices have necessitated an increase in the value of in-kind aid, while rising fuel costs have increased the cost of providing emergency services. For those suffering from acute food insecurity, especially children, the lack of access to adequate nutrition due to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine can have lifelong effects on physical and cognitive development.
Turkey’s role and influence in food security
Turkey as one of the middle powers and It focuses on the role it plays in the competition between Russia and the Western bloc (mainly the EU and NATO). Turkey can be considered as a balanced country despite being a member of NATO and maintaining dense economic relations with the European Union. Turkey used the “intermediary strategy” in relation to Russia’s attack on Ukraine and benefited from both sides.
During Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Turkey, within the framework of principles, National interests and international balances have given a special place to its foreign policy and thus strengthened its role as a center of peace and diplomacy.
Thanks to this special position, the expectation Turkey is going to continue its upward trend in the coming period. The fact that a coordination center will be established in Istanbul to secure grain shipments within the framework of the agreement shows the trust of Russia and Ukraine in Turkey.
The initiative to open a grain corridor in the sea Black shows that Turkey is very important in solving the global energy and food crisis. From this point of view, it can be said that Turkey is one of the few geopolitical and geoeconomic actors.
The most critical issue for Turkey is that by creating a basis for compromise in the war and being among the guarantor countries. , be a facilitator and, if possible, a mediator. Currently, it can be said that Turkey’s facilitation features have worked and created a context that can be used for reconciliation.
However, beyond mediation, Turkey’s name is raised as a guarantor country in such a war, which is very different in scale from other countries. It reveals a situation that boldly emphasizes its strategic mindset. By keeping dialogue channels open with two countries, Russia and Ukraine, Turkey has diplomatically tried to restore peace since the beginning of the conflicts.
Due to the sanctions and isolation policy against Russia, the number The countries that can set a diplomatic table to solve the problems caused by the war are limited. Turkey’s balanced foreign policy from the very first days of the war and emphasizing that it can take on the mission of mediating between the parties brought success in the grain corridor.
Let the grain ships with the Turkish Navy be supplied to the world markets through Turkey, which will have a positive effect on food prices both in the world and in Turkey.
Possibility of increase The supply, one of the solutions to the global food crisis, has been realized thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic success. As a result, as a reflection of Turkey’s diplomatic initiatives, Ukraine’s grain corridor can reduce global food inflation. These trends are highlighted, Turkey can have a greater contribution to the peace talks between the parties. Türkiye’s strategic integration approach has yielded results. Significant benefits that allow Ankara to open up vital food sources and increase its diplomatic credibility.
| © | Webangah News Hub has translated this news from the source of Tasnim News Agency |
