Eurasian security structure: from idea to practice

According to Tasnim news agency, Ivan Timofeev, program manager of the International Dialogue Club In an article entitled “Eurasia’s Security Structure: From Idea to Action”, Valday states that the experience of the collapse of the Euro-Atlantic project requires the creation of a new structure based on different principles.

In the opening lines of the article, he writes that the Euro-Atlantic region has not experienced a crisis like today after the end of the Cold War. This means that the Euro-Atlantic security system based on equal and indivisible security no longer exists.

At best, we can expect a reduction in the intensity of the crisis due to the new balance of power and mutual deterrence with Maintained dividing lines. In the worst case, a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO with the prospect of nuclear escalation can also be drawn.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 29, 2024, in His message to the Federal Assembly pointed to the need to form a new line of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia, as well as readiness for a fundamental dialogue in this field with interested parties.

Idea During his visit to the People’s Republic of China, the Russian leader was presented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergei Lavrov. Its possible structure was discussed earlier in this trip.

The very fact that the idea of ​​the Russian president was presented on the agenda of the negotiations between the two great powers shows that It can take a specific form both at the level of political theory and at the level of practice. Conceptualizing the idea of ​​Eurasian security inevitably raises the question of other projects in this field.

Sergei Lavrov, during his visit to Beijing, directly related the need for a new structure to security problems. The Euro-Atlantic created around NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is related.

Referring to the Euro-Atlantic experience is important for two reasons. First, the Euro-Atlantic project is distinguished by a high level of institutional integration. In fact, it is based on a military alliance (NATO) with strict obligations of its members. Despite the end of the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization not only survived, but also expanded to include former Warsaw Pact members. According to historical standards, NATO is the largest stable military alliance.

Secondly, the Euro-Atlantic project after the end of the Cold War could not solve the problem of common and indivisible security for all countries in the region. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, in theory, can bring together both NATO countries and those that do not belong to this alliance, including Russia, in a single community. But since the beginning of the 2000s, the process of politicization of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has turned in favor of the interests of Western countries.

Russia increasingly views the expansion of NATO as a security threat. . It turned out that instruments such as the Russian Council and NATO are not able to absorb the growing contradictions.

The lack of effective and equal institutions that take into account Russia’s interests and integrate them into the common security space. Finally, it led to the growing distance and then the crisis in the relations between Russia and the West. This transition was accompanied by the reduction of the arms control regime, the erosion of the rules of the game in the field of security in the background of the military operations of the United States and its allies, and ultimately the intervention in the internal affairs of the post-Soviet era, the culmination of which was the Ukraine crisis, the military phase of which was ultimately It marked the division in Europe.

In the background of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is an increasingly intense struggle between Russia and NATO. This country has not yet entered the military phase, but it is characterized by many other dimensions of competition, from information warfare to direct and comprehensive Western military aid to Ukraine.

Euro-Atlantic region It has not experienced such crises since the end of the Cold War, which suggests that a Euro-Atlantic security system based on equal and indivisible security no longer exists.

At best one can expect The reduction in the severity of the crisis was due to the new balance of power and mutual deterrence by maintaining the dividing lines. In the worst case, a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO can be expected with the prospect of escalation of nuclear tensions. and it requires different foundations.

First of all, such a structure should be based on the interaction of several actors and not be reduced to the dominance of one of the member countries, like the role of America in NATO. In this sense, it is a symbolic matter that consultation on Eurasian security issues has started precisely between Russia and China as two great powers and permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Therefore. Now, the first steps are being taken in creating a new structure based on the principles of dialogue and distribution of responsibility, not based on the principles of dominance of one force over others. At the same time, such actions are not limited to the bilateral relations between Russia and China and leave a wide space for the participation of other interested countries. The principle of division of responsibility and lack of dominance may become one of the key principles of the new structure.

The idea of ​​multi-dimensional security is also proposed as another principle. This idea is not limited to military issues (although these are fundamental), but a wider range of issues including “hybrid threats” in the form of information campaigns, security threats in the digital environment, interference in internal processes, politicization of the economy.

The discussion about a new security structure can include such issues at the beginning of its formation. The principle of indivisibility of security, which was not implemented in the Euro-Atlantic project, can and should be considered as a key principle for the structure of Eurasia. The United Nations Charter includes the principle of sovereign equality.

Of course, the beginning of consultations between Moscow and Beijing on issues related to the new security structure still indicates the creation of a similar military-political alliance. Not NATO. Most likely, we will witness a long process of maturation of the lines and parameters of the new structure.

At first, it may take the form of an assembly or consultative mechanism of interested countries, without being burdened by obligations. Too much organization and institution. Individual interaction formats can then be tested against specific security issues, including, for example, digital security. Here, the potential of existing institutions and organizations, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, can be exploited, and then, the accumulated experience can be transformed into permanent institutions focused on a wider range of security issues.

An important issue in this context will be the functional orientation of the new structure. NATO once appeared as a tool to contain the Soviet Union, and today it has found a new life and has the solution of the problems of containing Russia on its agenda.

Russia and China are both in They compete with the United States, although in the case of Russia they have practically entered the open and obvious phase, but in the case of China, they have not yet fully manifested themselves, but at least the idea of ​​a joint confrontation with the dual containment of the United States is supported in Moscow and Beijing. /p>

At the same time, building a security structure based solely on US opposition limits the project’s potential reach. A number of Eurasian countries are betting on a multidimensional policy and are unlikely to be ready to participate in a structure aimed at competing with the United States. Until now, many questions remain about the parameters of the Eurasian security structure. They should be resolved both at the level of diplomacy and at the level of dialogue between the international experts of the interested countries.

Report by Hamida Hoshour, international relations expert

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