Determining the borders of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and 3 upcoming scenarios

According to the international group Tasnim news agency , as the world order is becoming a more complex architecture with an array of global and regional powers, the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus is important for both domestic actors and external powers. side, now we see signs of movements to start the physical process in the geography of this region. Regional and global actors, such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States, the Israeli regime, Britain, India, Pakistan, China, the European Union, and individual members of the European Union. to the interference of other actors and igniting the regional war with the direct participation of Iran, Turkey and Russia and the indirect interference of the regime of Israel and Pakistan, India and France.

If this becomes a reality, there will be severe consequences for all countries in the region and all powers interested in a stable crossroads region of the Caucasus. South will have Everything should be done so that Azerbaijan and Armenia continue negotiations in good faith. It has agreed to return four border villages that were part of Azerbaijan during the Soviet Union. These four villages were captured by Armenian forces in 1990 and their Azerbaijani residents were forced to flee. Azerbaijan will replace them. The importance of the determined border for Azerbaijan is very high because this border passes near the main gas pipeline of Russia and this area has a favorable military position.

However, regarding the determination of the new border and this agreement in the future, there are possible scenarios that have been discussed in this article.

In the first scenario, the region becomes an active battleground of various regional and global actors and may eventually become fragmented and divided. In this case, the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan may become new fault lines between the new poles of the regional and global order, which prevents regional cooperation and negatively affects the chances of regional stability and prosperity, and turns the region into a commercial center and Transport converts. And Iran will become a fault line between the West and the Russian-Iranian axis, while Armenia – Azerbaijan And the new borders of Azerbaijan will be a line between the western and non-western world. Include the emergence, as a result, we unify an area and avoid creating any dividing lines.

This scenario is completely unrealistic. Even if Armenia were to join the West, which in itself seems quite challenging, Russia and Iran would likely do everything to prevent such a scenario, as neither Russia nor Iran wants to completely cut off ties and dominate Armenia. At the same time, since Azerbaijan’s foreign policy emphasizes more on the development of cooperation with Turkish countries, the idea of ​​Azerbaijan joining the European Union, the Eurasian Economic Union or the West is challenging.

A second scenario, there is an alternative future for the South Caucasus to avoid becoming a fragmented region under the influence of competing powers. In this future, the region will become a bridge for regional and global players and fully realize its potential to serve as a transit and logistics hub for Europe, Russia, the Middle East, India and China.

In this scenario, the region is part (in whole or in part) of any emerging geopolitical and geoeconomic power in the world. It will not be unipolar. This scenario makes the region not only a transit and logistics hub, but also a suitable platform for the dialogue of global and regional actors, including the United States – Russia, United States – Iran, European Union – Russia will convert. They comment on their future.

The mandatory condition for the realization of the second scenario is the beginning of dialogue and cooperation between all 3 countries of the region and as the first step in this direction Countries should accept and adhere to international laws, including non-use of force.

After more than 30 years of conflict and war, this scenario may seem unrealistic. However, this is the only option to ensure a safe, stable and prosperous future for the region and its people.

The first step to realize this scenario can be the establishment of regional expert platforms for dialogue and debate using the diplomacy toolbox. Ideas and proposals developed and agreed upon in those platforms can then be presented to relevant authorities in the region and beyond, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States.

Ideally, Azerbaijan and Turkey can steer the competition towards constructive interaction. Through the 3+3 format, Azerbaijan intends to steer this competition in a more constructive direction, strengthen the reconciliation of interests and facilitate open discussions on all regional issues involving all countries in the region.

It is worth mentioning that the signing of the peace treaty with Azerbaijan provides an opportunity for Armenia and the West to effectively prevent Russia to reduce Armenia. However, as electoral democracies, these Western countries still face the challenge of meeting the demands of the Armenian lobby. Azerbaijan’s clear message to the West is that it cannot have both sides. In other words, it cannot appease the Armenian lobby and achieve a peace agreement by forcing Azerbaijan to compromise on its interests.

Azerbaijan has a unique position as the only country located between Russia and Iran, both of which are among the most sanctioned countries in the world by the United States and the West at large.

The distance from Baku to the Russian border is only 200 km and in the opposite direction to the Iranian border is 282 km.Azerbaijan can be metaphorically compared to a strong castle that is placed on top of a hill and is under the influence and pressure of its powerful neighbors. This position also makes non-regional powers think that they should use the territory of Azerbaijan as a bridge against their neighbors. Therefore, it is very difficult to find a delicate balance and neutralize the pressures of powerful neighbors and external powers without the risk of direct confrontation with regional and global powers.

This strategy is based on a set of principles with the aim of introducing Azerbaijan as a predictable and reliable actor in the eyes of regional and global powers, and Azerbaijan’s policies regarding developments in the region can be He stated:

• Azerbaijan’s cooperation with any country has not been and will not be against a third country, especially neighboring countries.
• As President Ilham Aliyev emphasized, the territory of Azerbaijan will not be a battlefield for regional and world powers. . Azerbaijan will not allow such use.
• Azerbaijan is committed to prevent its territory from becoming a bridge for foreign powers. prevent the region.
• Azerbaijan refrains from interfering in the foreign policy choices of its neighbors, unless these choices be a direct threat to the country’s national interests.
• The minimum expectations that Russia has from the countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as Not to be perceived as a threat involves refraining from active participation in geopolitical projects orchestrated by the West to counter or contain Russia. Basically, this means showing no desire to join NATO or enter a customs union with the EU. However, the scope of Azerbaijan’s available space to pursue an independent foreign policy is significant and it would be more accurate to describe it as balanced, especially when viewed through a realistic lens. Because the foreign policy of Azerbaijan is completely realistic.
• Contrary to the accusations of gang-busting, Azerbaijan signed the agreement on strategic cooperation and mutual support of Azerbaijan. And Turkey has strengthened its military and political alliance with Turkey. This agreement, which was approved by the parliaments of both countries, introduces them as military and political allies and presents a strategic partnership that will strengthen Turkish hegemony in the region. Of course, it is necessary to mention the actions taken by Azerbaijan to the detriment of Russia’s strategic interests, these actions include the creation of oil and gas pipelines that bypass Russia. Azerbaijan’s support for Georgia, especially in 2007 and 2008, helping Georgia’s energy security, developing transportation infrastructure that bypasses Russia, playing a key role in the integration of the Turkic states, and Azerbaijan’s support for Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022 mentioned.

Finally mentioning this issue that the creation of a new border between Azerbaijan and Armenia can create peace and security in the region, but the smallest mistake in the foreign policy of each side will contain and intensify the tension in the region.

Note: Masoumeh Mohammadi, Eurasian issues expert

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