Will Erdogan’s party return to its glory days?

According to the international group Tasnim News Agency, more than a month has passed since the municipal elections in Turkey, but Its effects and psychological consequences for Erdogan and his party are still ongoing. Because for the first time after 22 years, the Justice and Development Party fell to the second rank of Turkish parties. As a result, everyone is asking: how can a government that is born from the second rank party of the country manage the country? ? In addition, now many think tanks and polling institutes in Turkey are thinking about this issue: Is it possible to once again return to the era of prosperity and glory after the heavy defeat that the ruling party of this country experienced in the recent elections?

Nurai Babajan, one of the analysts of Jahmurit newspaper published in Ankara, stated in a special report that the mental condition of the members of the policy council of the ruling party of Turkey is not good and Erdogan, openly and unreservedly, considered them weak and their performance disappointing. /p>

Babajan pointed out that at the order of Erdoğan, several polls and researches were conducted to understand the reasons for the ruling party’s recent electoral defeat, and the common result of all of them is: “Decreasing popularity and social status due to moving away from People”.

In addition to Norai Babajan, Fahmi Koro, Murad Yetkin, Ahmed Tashgatiren and several famous Turkish analysts, Taha Ak Yul, one of the political analysts of Turkey and a master of the important events of the political developments of the Republic of Turkey, examined this The topic has been discussed.

Ak Yul’s note about the recent ups and downs of the Justice and Development Party and the horizon facing Erdogan together:

Ak Party and Erdogan in the same way Narrow and narrow
The recent political developments in Turkey showed that the ruling party, from those multi-lane highways, has now entered a narrow and narrow road, and it is becoming more and more difficult to move in this direction, and it cannot move forward. .

Erdogan, after the 2023 presidential election, decided to take a big economic step instead of using sharp and polarizing language and emphasizing the old ideological strain.

It was like this that he entrusted the helm of the economy entirely to a minister named Mehmet Shimshek and promised not to interfere in economic decisions and that this action would gradually lead to de-escalation and prosperity. But now that a year has passed since Erdogan’s decision, we clearly see that such an action does not seem to be enough to return to prosperity and momentum.

What is this narrow street that is more and more difficult to navigate Is it possible?
Everyone is asking: What is the most important sign of the decline of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey’s political environment? Let me answer: after 22 years, this party has now made it difficult to show power in the big cities of Turkey and can finally manage small towns.

As a result, without compliments, it must be said: This means regression and backwardness. It is sitting. The political-social meaning of this retreat is to move away from the capable, educated and highly professional classes and join those classes of Turkish society that need financial assistance from the government and are more loyal to traditions from a political point of view.

What we saw in the results of the local elections on May 31, 2024, is the disappointment of the educated and modern class of Turkey from the ruling party, and the same thing happened to the People’s Republic Party and the Democratic Party in our contemporary history.

Deplorable situation of Erdogan’s party in provincial elections
Everyone thinks that Erdogan’s party lost only municipalities in the recent elections. This is despite the fact that it has suffered a heavy defeat in the provincial council elections and has been left alone in the general councils of the province, city and mostly rural areas in an unprecedented way. So that out of 10,800,000 voters, only 3,300,000 voted for the Justice and Development Party, which is equivalent to 32.16%. The People’s Republic Party, which previously received only 15% of the provincial council votes. this time he was able to get a better position by getting 2 million and 380 thousand votes, i.e. 23.21% of the votes. (In other words, the People’s Republic Party stands first in the municipalities and second in the provincial councils.)

However, the important and strategic point is that if even in sparsely populated and remote cities, economic development And an industry had happened, the situation of Erdoğan’s party was getting worse than what it is. That is, in the current population structure of Turkey, in every province and city that has seen prosperity and development, the educated and the elite And the experts have turned away from Erdogan’s party and are disappointed, and the small amount of votes it has obtained is related to small cities. Justice and Development Party has had a relatively good situation in small cities and districts, but in In large provinces and big cities, the People’s Republic Party is the first party with 15 million and 24 thousand votes and 42 percent. At the same time, the Justice and Development Party came in second place with 13 million and 37 thousand votes and 36 percent, and this is the result that has not yet been digested for Erdogan and his party.

Erdogan , even in spite of the friendship and companionship of the government of Baghçeli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, he could not attract the trust of the population of the metropolises and has suffered a great loss.

The table of results of recent elections from the perspective of comparing the level of development of the city and province with The political approach of the people has this clear message: urbanization is a social factor against the Justice and Development Party in the long term!

Erdogan, from now on, can only count on the votes of a part of the villagers and districts. Of course, from the point of view of political sociology, there is nothing surprising. Because it was inevitable that the ideological and oppressive policies of the Justice and Development Party in the last decade, especially in the new presidential system, would hit and disappoint everyone. The government’s overreach in the judiciary and the economic crisis and ever-increasing inflation have left the urban population disillusioned with Erdoğan and his party. It can become a dead end. But why did it really happen? In response, it should be said: the difference between urban units, i.e. “large society” and rural units, i.e. “small society” in the behavior of voters, is one of the most important topics of political sociology. He explains numbers and theory in his very important book called “Political Man”. Urbanization necessarily increases the role of education and intellectuals and strengthens the foundations of individual freedom and leads to diversity in lifestyle. It tends towards liberalization and diversity in cities. Economic development and the expansion of education strengthen this.

The Justice and Development Party, while in the first decade of government (2002 AD to 2014 AD), with a storm of reformist policies, reached 50% social popularity. He received the support of the intellectuals and the population of the cities. But the departure of this party from this space and moving towards authoritarianism and making quick decisions far from “rational basis” led to an economic crisis.

This is how Erdogan and his party entered the street. They became narrow, which gradually becomes narrower. Even using soft and humble language and literature in front of people is not a practical solution. The fact is that the development of urbanization and the opening of Turkey to the world, the increase in the demand for freedom, the rule of law and rationality in global standards, take away the chance of continued activity from the ruling party.

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