Likud’s relegation and consolidation of Netanyahu’s opponents in the polls
| After several weeks of progress for the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, a new poll by Maariv newspaper reports a sharp decline of the party. |
according to the international group Tasnim news agency, the latest After a few weeks of trend, the Likud party has again suffered a drop in popularity and is approaching its lowest record since the start of the war on October 7, 2023, according to a poll by Maariv newspaper.
The recent week was accompanied by the limited attacks of the Israeli army on Rafah, the continuation of the war of attrition along the borders of Lebanon and the Zionist regime, as well as the continuation of the stalemate in the negotiations on the ceasefire and the exchange of Israeli prisoners with Palestinian prisoners. These events have weakened the Likud party as well as the ruling coalition in the occupied territories compared to last week. He began to grow and in some reliable polls he was able to win 21 Knesset seats. In last week’s poll of Maariv newspaper, which conducts polls on a weekly basis, this party had 19 seats. But the ambiguities in the course of the war and the contradictory expectations that have arisen within the Zionist community about the victory in the war and the rescue of Israelis trapped by the resistance forces show that if early elections are held today in the occupied territories, the ruling Likud party will win only 17 seats. (47% drop compared to the last parliamentary elections). It was a relative drop, but it has started its upward trend again and has reached 32 seats with an increase of one seat.
Meanwhile, the other moderate party, Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, the leader After a month of improvement in the polls, the official opposition has once again fallen below 15 seats and settled for 13 seats. In the meantime, an important rule has been formed in the polls after October 7, which is the sum of the seats of the two moderate parties centered on Gantz and Lapid. According to this rule, winning more than 40 seats by the middle faction will mean the definitive defeat of the ruling right-religious coalition led by Netanyahu.
On the other hand Part of Yash Atid’s decline should be attributed to the relative increase in the vote of the Labor Party, which after a long time has seen this party return to above the 3.25% threshold at the same time as the Murtes Party.
Two far-right parties, Religious Zionism led by Betsalel Smutrich and Jewish Power led by Itamar Ben Gower also won a total of 13 seats. Of course, the religious Zionist party still has a threshold situation and faces many difficulties to remain above the quota.
In the religious wing, both Shas As in the past, United Torah Judaism won a total of 17 seats, 10 of which are the Shas Party’s share.
Other parties against Netanyahu
Among other opposition parties to Netanyahu, our Israel House led by Avigdor Lieberman has managed to consolidate its position as the third largest party after October 7, 2023. This party, which has a center-right political orientation, has quickly become an alternative to Netanyahu for supporters of center-right policies. Of course, if Naftali Bennett, the former prime minister, and Yossi Cohen, the former head of the Mossad, also enter the political competition, we will probably see a change in all major parties, including our home Israel.
Gideon Saar, the leader of the New Hope party, also experienced a bad situation in the polls after his separation from Gantz and remained below the threshold in most of the polls, including the Maariu poll. The only effect that Saar’s separation from Gantz has had so far has been the reduction of the seats of the internal unity coalition led by Gantz to below 35 seats.
Among the left-wing parties, it should be said that with the identification of the main candidates for the leadership of the Labor Party, the situation of this party has slightly improved and since the first of this month, this party has also returned to above the quota for entering the Knesset. In the recent survey of Maariv newspaper, the Labor party won 4 seats and the Murtaz party won 4 seats, so that the number of left wing seats will reach 8 seats.
Among the Arab parties, the coalition of God – Taal (the rest of the joint Arab list) It continues its work without change with 5 seats and Raam Party led by Mansour Abbas also wins 4 seats with a loss of one seat. The anti-Zionist Balad party, led by Sami Abu Shehadeh, is also far from the 3.25% threshold with 1.7% of the votes. Therefore, the Arab faction also won 9 seats.
The opponents will win
However, if early elections are held in the occupied territories, Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition will only win 47 seats and will be denied a majority. Meanwhile, the said faction won 64 seats in the November 2022 elections and won decisively. On the other hand, Netanyahu’s opponents won 68 seats, which made them win the election and put them on the verge of forming a coalition cabinet. Of course, the number of seats of Netanyahu’s opponents has been reduced by 5 seats of the Arab Coalition of God – Almighty, which is not willing to cooperate with any of the two factions.
| © | Webangah News Hub has translated this news from the source of Tasnim News Agency |
