Looking to the East case|Tehran and Beijing’s contribution to the slowdown of Iran-China relations

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, a serious challenge between experts and There are Iranian analysts who wonder why relations between Tehran and Beijing do not reach high levels. This question has become an issue for the development experts because due to the slowing down of relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Western countries, especially the European Union and the United States, the question arises that the main need of the country, which is foreign investment, import of industrial equipment and technology, is a way to provide Iran has no choice but China. As a result, how should the current situation be changed?

A look at the depth of Iran’s bilateral relations. and China:

The head of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce said: “Currently, the volume of trade between Iran and China is more than 30 billion dollars. But the trade ceiling of the two countries can be increased up to 50 billion dollars. This 30 billion includes 14 billion dollars of Iran’s exports to China and 16 billion dollars of goods and products from China to Iran. It should be noted that 80% of Iran’s exports to this eastern partner are oil derivatives. However, seeing the favorable investment conditions inside Iran and comparing with regional competitors, it can be seen that Beijing has made only 3 billion dollars of foreign investment in the three years of the 13th government, which is very small compared to the capacity of Iran’s oil and gas industries.

Also, comparing the amount of commercial exchange between Beijing and the regional rivals of the Islamic Republic of Iran, namely Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, does not yield interesting results, so that the volume of exchanges between China and Saudi Arabia In 2023, it consists of 120 billion dollars and with the United Arab Emirates it is close to 100 billion dollars.

In addition to the economic issues mentioned above China’s lackluster political presence in the West Asian region is also a reason; It means that Beijing has only an economic presence in our region, and this presence is generally inclined towards the southern edge of the Persian Gulf. Even we witnessed that considering that the world trade was endangered in the story of the Al-Aqsa storm operation, the Chinese tried to increase their superiority and not deal with any side.

As a result, experts and analysts inside Iran are divided into two categories: Some believe that the main obstacle to relations is the problems caused by sanctions, non-acceptance of international conventions and political risks directed at Iran. ; The other group says that the main reason for the increase in exchanges is the lack of stability in administrative institutions, legal and regulatory problems, including fluctuations The exchange rate is either its pricing or the lack of a national vision to create points for cooperation and finally the existence of western politicians and brokers in Iran.

Where is the problem?

Undoubtedly, if we sympathetically look at the obstacles of foreign relations and the arguments of each side, we can see that both have calculated the problems correctly. But according to each of the internal and external factors, it refers to a separate layer, i.e. strategic and tactical relations.

In other words, according to It turns out that due to foreign problems, including sanctions and the non-acceptance of international treaties, the relationship between Iran and China is in trouble at the strategic level, and it is the Chinese side that does not want to have a broad relationship with Iran.

In order to understand this importance, arguments can also be given, for example, the most important cooperation between China and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the last decade, i.e. the signing of a memorandum of understanding for a 25-year cooperation document, or the partnership in Iran’s oil fields only after It was formed from the acceptance of the JCPOA or it was after the acceptance of the JCPOA that Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Tehran. The highest level of bilateral trade between Tehran and Beijing was at the end of the JCPOA acceptance period, which recorded a figure of nearly 50 billion dollars.

With this Now, the factors that point to internal problems are related to tactical issues such as the attraction of small capitals or medium and medium-sized Chinese companies that are generally not state-owned and include the margin of the Chinese market; for example, it includes industries that use technology They don’t have a high level or small capitals of Chinese businessmen are considered. It should be small and it should be active to solve the legal problems and administrative procedures of small and medium investors. The micro investor has less risk tolerance and it goes without saying that these micro partners have less determination and determination towards the government, as a result, they are very risk averse and those projects are canceled when there are the smallest considerations, even administrative ones.

The experience of China’s presence in countries such as Pakistan, where political and even terrorist conflicts are now observed, and the fact that China simultaneously invested 55 billion dollars in foreign investment. done, it shows that the administrative system and internal political stability is not a decisive factor for the Chinese, and in general, the investment of the Communist Party is a risky capital, which is caused by the high volume of trade balance surplus.

Also, the experience of the risk-taking investor of the Chinese Communist Party in African countries that are involved in coups and civil wars at the same time cannot be overlooked.

However, in general, it can be said that in relation to Iran, the Chinese clearly want to observe international norms, and in no way the cost of the relationship with Iran They do not take responsibility against America and they do not adhere to American sanctions only to the extent that their strategic interests in West Asia are provided by Iran.

Tasnim News Agency in a file titled “Silk Road Partner It has evaluated the strategy of looking to the east in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the bilateral relations between Iran and China. The contents of this file, which includes detailed discussions and notes related to this strategy, will be published in the news agency this week.

end of message/