Gantz’s and Netanyahu’s logo; The war cabinet is on the way to fall

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the Al-Aqsa storm operation on the 7th of October 2023, while It began that since the beginning of 2023, due to the Netanyahu cabinet’s insistence on judicial reforms, Israel witnessed a very deep and unprecedented division. This bipolarity paved the way for the beginning of resistance groups’ operations. At the same time, there were strong divisions between Netanyahu and almost no other current was willing to cooperate with Netanyahu and the coalition cabinet led by the Likud party, except for the two religious factions and the extreme right.

Despite this gap, Benny Gantz, who both the major developments of 2023 (judicial reform crisis and Al-Aqsa storm operation) had greatly increased his popularity, as a result of the crisis situation caused by the war to create political cohesion, appeared in Enter the emergency cabinet for some conditions. Gantz made his entry into this cabinet conditional on the number of its members being limited to three and other members of the cabinet, especially the extreme rightists, being left out.

Netanyahu, who was caught in a very serious situation, agreed to all of Gantz’s conditions at that time, and the war cabinet was formed on October 11 (20 Mehr 1402). Apart from Netanyahu, only War Minister Yoav Galant and Gantz were voting members in this cabinet, and Gadi Eisenkot (a party member of Gantz) and Ron Dermer, Minister of Strategic Affairs, also joined it as an advisory minister.

From the very beginning of the war, almost two issues were clear; Firstly, the artificial cohesion created as a result of the military conflict cannot remain stable for a long time, and secondly, it was clear from October 2023 that Gantz could not cooperate with this combination for a long time. In fact, the fake cohesion that was formed in the political sphere of the Zionist regime after the start of the war remained minimal on the one hand, and contrary to expectations, only the internal unity coalition centered on Gantz and Gideon Saar joined the emergency cabinet and not Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition (who was the first to propose the formation the cabinet was an emergency) and neither Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of our Israel House party, were added to this collection. There was so much opposition to Bibi that it was clear from the very beginning of the war that the suspension of protests and the artificial silence created cannot continue. As a result, the temporary silence was broken only three months after the start of the war, and protests against the way the war was managed and the inability of the Israeli cabinet to save the lives of Israeli prisoners held by resistance groups in Gaza returned to the streets of large cities in the occupied territories.

On the other hand, criticism of Netanyahu among Israeli politicians also entered the public discourse in the first months of the war, and in the past months it has reached a level higher than October 7. . It was also very clear that the prolongation of Gantz’s presence in the cabinet would mean that either he would have to shorten his positions or the extreme right wing would be marginalized.

Gantt’s Six Conditions and the Gallant Wave

Gantz announced on Saturday night that Netanyahu’s cabinet was unable to make strategic decisions due to the domination of a radical minority (meaning the extreme right wing) and therefore many issues remain unresolved. Gantz threatened Netanyahu with 6 issues, if a decisive decision is not taken on these issues by June 8 (in 3 weeks), he and his coalition will leave the war cabinet.

The first condition for Gantz to continue being in the emergency cabinet is to return the remaining Israeli prisoners.

The second condition Gantz’s goal is to overthrow the government of Hamas and demilitarize the Gaza Strip and take control of its security. It is a civilian based on American, European, Arab and Palestinian elements (which will replace both the self-governing organization led by Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas).

The fourth condition that Gantz set for Netanyahu is to return the residents of the northern strip to the evacuated settlements and resolve the unresolved crisis of conflicts with Hezbollah on the northern borders by September 1, 2024 and rebuild the western Negev (adjacent to Gaza).

Gantz’s fifth condition is to advance the process of normalizing Tel Aviv’s relations with Saudi Arabia as part of a comprehensive process to create an alliance with the free world and the West against Iran and its allies. Finally, the sixth condition is the obligation of Haredi congregations to spend military service in the Israeli army. A few days ago, the Minister of War of the Zionist regime, in a short speech, officially opposed Netanyahu’s plan to continue the presence of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip and assume the role of security supervision and civil affairs management. Gallant claimed that he would not allow the realization of this plan. It seems that basically Gantz got the courage to make these differences public after Gallant’s opposition.

An hour after Gantz’s words, Netanyahu opposed Gantz’s terms. Kord and his office also tried to change the issue from Gantz’s 6 conditions to three questions in a statement. In the statement of the Prime Minister’s Office of the Zionist regime, Gantz was asked to clarify his opinion about the operation of the Israeli army in Rafah and the importance of this operation for the destruction of Hamas. Also, in spite of Gantz’s verbal opposition to the presence of Hamas and the self-governing organizations in Gaza, this statement asks him to express his opinion about the return of the civilian rule of the self-governing organizations after the Mahmoud Abbas period. Finally, this statement asks Gantz if he is willing to accept the Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank within the framework of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia?

Consequences of Gantz leaving the war cabinet

Given that Netanyahu’s coalition cabinet before entering Gantz also had the support of 64 representatives in the Knesset (and at least 61 supporting representatives are needed to form a cabinet in Israel), Gantz’s possible departure from the war cabinet will return the number of supporters of the cabinet in the Knesset from 71 to 64, but it will collapse The cabinet will not lead numerically.

In such a situation, Gantz needs to separate at least 4 representatives from his coalition to bring down Netanyahu’s coalition cabinet. . Following Gallant’s opposition to Bibi and the alignment of Gallant’s and Gantz’s positions, some cabinet ministers, including the extreme right wing, accused Gallant of being Gantz’s plaything and demanded his dismissal.

If in the coming days the gap between Gallant and Netanyahu deepens and Netanyahu tries to fire Gallant from the position of Minister of War for the second time, Gantz’s desired process will be implemented and he will ride the wave again. Oppositions to this decision can maintain and even strengthen their popularity. In this scenario, it is even possible to imagine Galant and some Likud party representatives leaving the coalition.

But if this process does not happen, separation The possibility of Gantz from the war cabinet will only bring more social and international pressure to Netanyahu’s coalition.

Gantez’s possible separation from the emergency cabinet is expected to trigger a wave of protests against Netanyahu’s cabinet in the occupied territories. several times slower. Also, the dissatisfaction of Israel’s western allies in Bibi’s cabinet will intensify in Gantz’s absence, and this issue will have many negative consequences for the future of the Zionist regime’s relations with the Western world.

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