Look to the east Connecting Iran with the Chinese value chain/3

, Tasnim News in a case titled “Silk Road Partner” to evaluate the strategy of looking to the east in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic Iran and bilateral relations between Iran and China have been discussed. The content of this file includes detailed discussions and notes related to this strategy.

In the third part of this program, political, economic and common perspectives are discussed. The relations between these two countries have received attention. On this occasion, Bardiya Attaran, a foreign policy researcher, spoke about the macroeconomic perspective of the new China, the regional and bilateral issues between us, and the dimensions of the future cooperation between Tehran and Beijing. And he spoke with Fereydoun Verdinijad, the former ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Beijing and the political deputy of the 12th president. The details of this conversation are as follows. >

/p> Among Iranian elites and experts, there is a consensus that we do not know China accurately; China is an unknown country, China’s macro policies in the international field in its competition with great powers, in its presence in the West Asian region, etc.; What do you think the Chinese designed for themselves? What are their initiatives? What should we recognize the Chinese as? that this country has had, its special geographical position, which is almost in a corner of the world in a deserted way, and had relatively few connections with the world, and usually had regional activities, and also due to their characteristics, they did not make international efforts, and later due to the post-war The Second World War of the Communist Party and the conflicts they had at the global level and the blockades that existed were less present in the context of global and international developments, they were fundamentally side issues.

Their policy is usually after the reform period started there and after Mao’s death and after Mao’s conflicts with Mao’s widow and Deng Xiaoping’s arrival and reforms in China, they tried to focus more on internal issues and economic issues. and the development of the country, and they avoided entering into international issues, and wherever their movement curve had an angle with other powers, including the Westerners, the Americans, and even the Russians, they tried to avoid confrontation.

On this basis, both because of their policies, because of their geographical location and because of the abandonment of their language, they remained almost unknown and did not try to make themselves known to the world. They didn’t try to develop their language, they didn’t try to be present in the context of political developments and crises, so they were an unknown nation not only for us, but also for many countries and nations.

Today, after three or four decades of development and entry into the text, international and global issues, economy, etc. are slowly being recognized, and in a general summary, it can be said that the rotation of the flow of information between us And the china is weak and not oiled. Based on this, neither they have a precise knowledge of our nation and the conditions of Iran today, nor do we have this knowledge of them. There are a limited number of businessmen, governments and institutions of both sides who know each other.

But if today our people Ask about the Chinese, two things come to their mind: the wall of China, low-quality and cheap goods, and if you ask about us in China, they will say about Iran: Takht Jamshed or, for example, Imam Khomeini or Shiraz, and for example, one of our football players. are named Or maybe, for example, they want to be very deep and say that it is an oil and rich country. https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1403/02/30/14030230152637490300782910.jpg”/>

Very Sometimes Iran and Iraq are mistaken for each other, some of them consider us Arabs, they don’t know that we are Iranians at all, that is, I want to say that because these connections are not extensive, the understanding of each other is weak, and this is due to both historical and cultural issues. Also, China’s policies are not interested in emerging and emerging in international issues, and in short, they have significant seriousness.

Tasnim: Because you used your verbs in the past tense, does China now have a desire to introduce itself to the world?

After 2014 and especially from 2015 onwards and the coming to power of Mr. Dr. Xi in China and the developments that happened after that and after the congress that was held with his presence, the Chinese policy is a more serious presence. And he has become stronger in international issues, and he even believes that China should define its own role in international issues, including the new world order and new developments, and have a more serious presence, and slowly they tried without tension and conflict and without making others sensitive. Get into these issues little by little. For example, they tried to distance themselves from the ideological atmosphere they had before and put representatives in the more nationalistic atmosphere in important international developments, for example, let someone follow the Palestinian issues and come to the talks.

Be more active in the United Nations and the United Nations Security Council. To resolve border and currency disputes with their neighbors, whether with Filipinos, Japanese, Indians or other countries. to minimize some of the problems they have with Korea and the issues they had in the sea.

You saw examples in our region. For example, suppose they tried to have an almost balanced policy in Iraq, they intervened in the issues between us and Saudi Arabia and even managed to reach an understanding and agreement between the two countries. Therefore, after Mr. Xi Jinping, he has been able to change that past policy to a large extent, and they are slowly introducing themselves to international issues and gradually experiencing. The Chinese still do not have very high experience in this matter, but they are practicing little by little.

** No, this is not possible, because China has reached a stage in terms of economy, technology level, internal capabilities of the country, and its development and growth, where it must slowly move from its geographical borders to political borders and international influence. Why? Because there is a category in China called the Chinese dream; The Chinese dream is to become the world’s first economy in the era of prosperity, comfort and peace for the people inside, balance and harmony with the outside world, and to grow and reach those high levels in terms of technology.

For this reason, the Chinese are so aware that they should develop their facilities and presence outside the geographical borders and take them to other parts of the world. Based on this, they analyzed that, for example, if they want to have a competition with other powers, they cannot be confined only within their own borders and in their own region; Rather, they have to cross the straits and cross the seas. Now the Chinese are looking for different bases in different places.

dir=” rtl>In Africa, South America, in Djibouti, in our region, the port of Gwadar, etc. in terms of military and in terms of physical presence, in terms of economic benefits, investing in different places, buying in different markets, presence in different ports and even in Europe Now part of the Greek ports have been leased or bought by the Chinese, they even appeared in Europe. They tried to be present in different places.

This is the need today for the growth and development of this country and its enlargement, it cannot be reversed anymore, this is a summary issue. Today, it is the Communist Party of China, and it has nothing to do with the individual, rather, as Dr. Xi, the individual is a symbol of this evolution, and because he himself was a person whose family had a great impact on the party’s issues, he has an impact as an ideologue. He may be very different from Mr. Hu Jintao, who was before him, because he had an effect as the president, as the party leader and as the head of the military commission, but as an ideology, he did not have this effect. Dr. Xi has this effect, naturally it will intensify this process.

Tasnim: We suffered when great powers came to our country historically. That is why we are afraid of the presence and emergence of a new power. The Chinese are also an authoritarian country, when they say that the presence of China in the region or the increase of our relations with China creates a fear in the hearts of us Iranians unconsciously that these Chinese have also come. Or, for example, this power will harm our country or their spirit will dominate. Should we be afraid of the Chinese? It is part of the propaganda and advertising of competitors. It is partly true, yes, the Chinese are very authoritarian, the Chinese are looking for power at the international level, but let’s not forget one thing, the Chinese in the West Asia region, that is, in the Middle East region and the region where we live, do not have a geopolitical perspective, but rather a geoeconomic perspective. China’s geopolitical view is more in East and Southeast Asia, which is their own security issue. The issue of the South China Sea is the issue of Taiwan and issues related to Taiwan. The border problems they have with Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, India and with the rest of the countries in the region. The Pacific region is concentrated and the view they have of our region is more of a vascular and transit region and a geo-economic view. Accordingly, they are not looking for a hegemon in this region. If we consider several rings, one in Southeast Asia and the Pacific region, another in Central Asia as well as the Caucasus region, and finally the Persian Gulf and North Africa as a ring. If we look at Europe, the more the vascular rings of the Chinese move from the eastern ring to the western side, their geopolitical and political view will decrease and they will come towards the stabilization of economic development and geo-economic view; Therefore, we should not be afraid of China’s presence in the region. To have balanced relationships. Your relations should not be skewed to one side of the curve, that is, it should not be like the time of the previous regime, when the relations were completely towards the West, specifically America, and the suitability of this curve towards the East and other parts of the world was not as skewed and focused towards the West.

Let us draw a normal curve in the sense that our foreign policy is balanced. Adjust the relations we have with the West, prioritize the relations we have with the East, the relations we have with the region and our neighboring countries. China can also be a part of these relations, there is no reason for us to focus only on relations with China. The Chinese also have a capacity, ability, effects and prominences that we as a country in West Asia can use. And the Russians have towards us, we have with our neighboring countries.

If we are able to adjust our foreign policy with balanced relations A country does not feel that we have no other option than him. Now imagine yourself as a power, and I as a country that I want to have relations with you; If you feel that I, as a person of a group or a team or an organization or a country, do not have various options for my communication and have limitations, naturally you will raise the price of your relationship and your goods and abilities in relation to me and the conditions will be more difficult. You put it for me and competitors may start advertising against you. Or the document of cooperation between Iran and China, I mean the 25-year document of strategic cooperation that China has signed with 60-70 countries of the world (and it is not exclusive to us), so the rest of those countries all went to China and dominated and ruled over them, or they came. They gave a part of their country to China? No contract has been concluded in this document yet, unfortunately after all this time something will happen in practice and it is not like they want to take anything from us, or we want to take something from them, a joint cooperation and the readiness of both sides to They can cooperate with each other in economic, cultural, social, political, judicial, military, etc.

Tasnim: I have understood from your statement so far that what is scary about China is that we become dependent on the Chinese, or our relationship becomes unbalanced. Here too, an issue that is prominent for the public opinion in China is the conflicts that we hear about with the Americans, that is, since the end of the Obama era in 2015, we hear that, for example, a cold war, a trade war, an economic war between the Chinese and the Americans have started. intensified and continued during the Biden era.
In what areas is this conflict? And do you think this could lead to a tension or not?

**See what the Chinese policy has been Until, for example, 2010 or from, for example, 1980 to, for example, 2005-2010, what was said means avoiding all conflicts, paying attention to their own issues and not participating in international issues, staying away from movements, staying away from countries, passing through conflicts even where, for example, They got into trouble with the Americans, they basically digested it and swallowed it and did not let it become a tension.

They found that they reached a certain level of economic, capital and technological power and ability, after that they said that now we should come to make strategic friendship with other powers, including the United States. The Americans slowly felt threatened by the Chinese coming in as a new power and filling a void, especially since the Russians were also involved in economic and domestic issues after the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. The handshake of some eastern countries and the weakening of Russia, being caught up in various issues, felt that a new competitor would enter this field.

At the international level, strategic friendship turned into strategic competition. Especially in China, changes took place and Mr. Xi came to work, and the atmosphere for seeking a share at the international level gradually strengthened. They said that we should be present in global issues and play a role in the new world order in the WTO (World Trade Organization) and the economy. This meaning was imagined that a competition between the two sides has formed, but this is still in the framework of a cold deterrence between the two countries and has not turned into a warm or hot deterrence, which increases the possibility of risks and conflicts, for example, military, security, sanctions, etc.

The Chinese also created for them, for example, let’s say that China is very diverse and rich in issues related to rare metals, related to mineral and mineral issues. For one thing, the Westerners are dependent on China, and Beijing has imposed restrictions on them, so I think this issue will be managed between the two sides. Sometimes it may reach a certain extent because the most important issue for the Chinese in this issue is the issue of Taiwan. If the issue of Taiwan does not become a hot topic between the two sides, the cold and managed deterrence between the two sides will continue, which means there is no possibility of a conflict, there is no possibility of a war, and in one case, the deterrence will look cold. I will continue.

Tasnim: If you allow us to move from China’s international approach to China’s regional perspective. When we examine the regional case between Iran and China, these countries that are important to us are Afghanistan and Pakistan, and if we want to have a long-term horizon and a more open horizon, we can mention the countries of Central Asia. In your opinion, what design can be arranged between the cooperation between Iran and China for the cooperation with Afghanistan and Pakistan?

** In relation to cooperation issues, I must point out that in general, in today’s world, we have three poles that produce the value chain. One is America, which produces a global value chain; One value chain is Europe and one is China. Apart from these three, we do not have value chains at the global level.

This value chain is also a supply chain. It creates these poles, that is, a series of countries and blocs are connected to the American pole, a series are connected to the European pole, and a series are connected to the Chinese pole. Our geographical location and international developments have ruled that we no longer have globalization, globalization and the chain of global value. There are two to three transformation that has exacerbated this.

one was Corona; When Corona came to see that many of the country within their own facilities and their food and vaccine belonging to themselves, then gradually became zone and poles were formed, then overflows and overflow could reach elsewhere. One was the second of the Ukraine War that Europe prefers the eyes of the blue and the mobs in both immigration and support and in international and security issues, namely Ukrainian immigrants with Syrian and Iraqi and Afghan immigrants, etc. They are different and are not the three and four migrants; If they are top -notch immigrants and this again showed that the region’s issues are and the Gaza war and Israel issues again showed it again.

So the world is fundamentally moving towards regional polarization and supply chains, and it is an opportunity for Iran to be able to our relationships in addition to bilateral relations with countries like what we asked Let’s make China both a multilateral and multilateral. What is the possibility of its multilateral? In the regional value chain and the regional supply chain, let’s say that we are part of the road belt, the new silk road that encompasses the country from China to Europe and nearly 60-60.

We can easily share our facilities with the Cloud-Partner Partner countries with at least 10-15. One thing we have one thing, such as Iran’s mother, we have oil and energy resources, we have the land of al -Jaishi, we have high expertise and capability for services, services, engineering, etc., and we have some technology. Put these into the pot that comes to the boiling head that the Chinese, the Central Asian, the Caucasians and the Persian Gulf; From East Asia to here we can be present in a pot or a security chain as a new Asian or regional identity, and work together.

Accordingly, an opportunity for us is in bilateral relations with China, in the Eurasian Union, it is in the Eurasian Union, in the ECO and the Buoo Economic Forum, a China -based Asian Economic Forum. . We come to China, which is the pole of this move in East Asia, to make Iran as a pole of this movement in West Asia and create a transverse bond between the region with the subcontinent and India. There should be some of the Chinese, as well as the Chinese, India, Russia and China, a regional identity and a regional supply chain that will benefit us and in the region.

In addition to multilaterally, we follow the bilateral we are also defined in this framework of Afghanistan and Pakistan; But the Chinese are a strategic relationship with Pakistan because of their competition with the Indians. That is, China -Pakistan’s relationship is different than China and other countries. You see that Pakistan, despite having no history, is not 70-80 years older than the country, and also has little strategic depth, today by the Chinese even atomic. Why? Because Pakistan is a place as a possibility for the Chinese to compete with India and other countries, this relationship may not have with us and not with Afghanistan.

Afghanistan mainly-is now in good relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan-usually seeing Russian and Indian policies and do not believe that a comprehensive task is between China. And Pakistan and Afghanistan did.

If they want to do it only for the north-south route and the north-south crossing of the Gwadar port To deploy and move to Europe via Santo Road and move to Europe that it will be detrimental to our interests and our soil, meaning that the crossings may change the region’s economy fundamentally, whether the northern crossroads What is the east to west but the Chinese need to solve their problems with us, so that they come and strategically with us on this route.

Therefore, the possibility of strategic cooperation between us and Pakistan, Afghanistan and China is not very in line with the realities on the ground unless in the form of a new silk road or the ECO Cooperation Organization and perhaps. In the Economic Union, we can organize this cooperation with China, Russia and India and the rest of “ Tasnim: Have a transition from energy security; The Chinese supply the major oil and gas needed from the Persian Gulf, the Chinese have been trying to rule a balance and a balance between the north and south of the Persian Gulf. And how could Saudi Arabia form? Has this agreement ruined this balance to some extent?

** See the Chinese for years to diversify in Work resources to work their own energy; From South America to Africa and Nigeria and Sudan to Venezuela and South America and later the Persian Gulf. One day we were the first exporter of oil to China, the first source to make the most imports to China in crude oil from Iran. Today we are the sixth side of China’s oil imports.

so the Chinese diversity put the Chinese in their portfolio, but the security of energy production and transfer from The Chinese view is important and they know that Iran plays a key role in this, and there is a difference between Iran and all the resources that the Chinese have oil, gas and petrochemicals and petrochemicals. That is to say, the Chinese know that if tomorrow becomes an international crisis and in a cold deterrence, it moves toward hot and hot deterrence and moves towards an international tension or conflict, many of these countries that are energy for them now. Provide them may limit their cooperation with China within the framework of other countries’ interests. HBIMVIDEO “data-dimension =” 720 “data-params =” {aparat = lcf09l6} “href =” https://newsmediab.tasnimnews.com/tasnim/uploaded/video/1403/0233333 = ” Nofollow “Style =” Block; 350px; = “Text-align: Justify”> But they know that Iran has this independence vote, there is a guarantee that it will continue with a long-term continuous process of two capitals and bilaterals; So we have this position mentally and mentally in our relationship with the Chinese. But they are interested in investing in the region. As a result, they are looking for the stability of the Middle East, and their geoconomic look, in which the geo -strategic framework is their geoconomic priority, the economy.

Look at the Arab countries, for example, how many times are the population of Iran? What are their facilities and their investments? And what is the return of capital? So they will naturally tend to them, and now we see that their investment in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, even Oman, Iraq and the region, is noticeable, but it does not mean that Iran does not care about them either.

accordingly China’s interest is the Middle East stability; China’s benefit, the dynamic economy and the Chinese economy market are the crossroads that can safely take China’s goods to the west and Europe on land and the sea and guarantee China’s needs from the region and from the west to the east. This is China’s general policy, but whether we are important in this matter? The Chinese also believe that Iran may not be a basic and strategic player at the regional level, but the game is a companion. They know that if any decision wants to be taken in our region and perhaps a bit of the periphery area, it must be seen in its interests and moved accordingly, otherwise the agreement may not be reached or faced with many challenges. Be very serious.

Chinese know that Iran has been a strong Western defense wall over the past few decades; Even the Americans were heavily involved in the area, otherwise they had gone to China’s borders many years ago. Therefore, in relations between the two countries, these strategic and security points should be fully considered and the price be paid by the two sides, especially the Chinese.

Tasnim: Mr. Doctor, I enter bilateral relations from here. Do you think we were the Western Western Wall of the Chinese? If the Chinese really needed such a defensive wall, we would have to see a more strategic and strategic relationship with them, what do you think our relationship would not be aligned? RTL “Style =” Text-Align: Justify “> Don’t forget one point that the Chinese because they want internationally at the United Nations in world institutions in private sector organizations such as Davos, Cross Montana, WTO And. Why? Because they want to get into this space and take a role, they pay close attention to moving on the international arena, meaning they do not want to move in such a way that as a country that violates international standards, disrupts the games. . There is not much gap between European and Western countries and … with the Chinese. That is, as we assume, for example, in Western countries, merchants and the private sector, even our students are having trouble accounting, getting a credit card or social rights, and so on.

This is all for two reasons: one that China wants to move in the international sage and does not want to oppose Those issues should be the second that part of the facilities in China today, such as the board of directors, such as Chinese banks, large Chinese corporations, and Westerners, Americans, etc., are voting there, even for example. At the airport they also see such a thing. In the airport company, in banks, in customs and in different places.

for these two reasons Chinese if they want to work strategically with us From the Chinese point of view, a series of international softness must be observed. If they want to work with us seriously and invest in a fundamental investment, they will get out of the market for the market and the project market, to invest and invest with us and engage their interests. International software must also be observed from the Chinese point of view, so the issue of sanctions is a question for the Chinese, things like FTF is a question. I don’t want to say good or bad? Either we have to join or not join? I look at the Chinese view. These are one of the things that limits it, if I do not say it, it restricts.

Tasnim : How do you analyze the relationship we have with the Chinese right now while we are boycotting and not accepting the FATF? : Justify “> ** See two levels: from the market level to the level of project cooperation, the Chinese are willing to come to Iran with conditions and implement the project. Financing to have a finance and a nose partnership with us and to harvest after the product. 85 %, for example, give them 15 % of us in a series of projects such as electric rail or mines, steel factories and so on, but the joint venture of FDI does not make a joint Chinese direct investment.

because they want to move in international slices; It is said that it is unclear what the fate of our funds will be given? Our sanctions, for example, is a banking boycott is a maritime boycott, it is a sanction of transportation, and so on. For a series of activities, they pass through a series of things. The Americans do somewhat, for example, but this is not comfortable on a asphalt and two -way roadblock, it is blind, the gorge, it has problems, it becomes expensive.

Suppose you want to sell oil to China, you can buy from China. It is a dollar and the oil becomes a yuan, then you want to buy because you are foreign Turn into the dollar again, one percent each takes everything to the Iranian side. If you want to get out of the outside, China sends you out of sanctions.

so everything will be a bit more expensive for you It was not open but there are windows between us and the Chinese, which is due to the efforts that the political officials of the two countries had been in the past and it has continued, but it is not economical, not all of them. It is not cheap and not cheap but more expensive for us than others.

** If we are resolved with our whole world today and have the best relationship with the West and so on. We don’t, and China is the fifth wheel and that’s all jokes, why? Because today, since the 1970s to the present day, we have gone a significant portion of our technology from infrastructure, heavy industries, some light industries to China and Chinese technology and Chinese machines because today The streets of Tehran and Iran you can see how many models of Chinese cars and Chinese motorcycles? The same is the same situation in our factories and in our components and even the basic industries.

So if we have the best relationship with the Western world, inevitably inevitably. We are having a balance between the two and maybe $ 60 billion in the year we have to work with the Chinese at all. This is not an choice. For years China has been our first business. But in order to fit, we need to build a balance in our foreign policy and our economy relations. That is, the Chinese know that we have different options, and then economically, socially, and politically we decide to make this purchase or these relationships with the Chinese, not for coercion, not out of the difficult situations we have.

If we create this balance and be able to raise funds, for example, it will not be so difficult to get in any other place, including China. So answering your question in a word is to create balance and balance independently and from the position of authority in foreign policy; As we have honest in the matter of promise, while we defended the position of the country, we responded to their crime and we were able to communicate with the outside world to convey the necessary messages to them from the position of power and to say that our border. Until this point is no more, no less, we must have the same in our case.

Tasnim: The most important thing we did with the Chinese in the last year, which you have been responsible for in the previous government, is the 25 -year agreement and a document of cooperation with Chinese . I would like to first tell you a narrative of how this document was signed, and secondly, some of the Chinese people because they have a specific system and structure they like to work with partner countries with a person or a current or with a specific entity that widespread authority. How do you evaluate the initiative that we had in cooperation with China that one person was responsible for our case? Was that model of cooperation with China desirable or not?

** See the Chinese basically like centralized country because Are structured and their decisions are long -term and law enforcement; They are interested in the opposite of the same situation. The 25 -year strategic cooperation agreement between us and China has a long history, namely, since our President’s visit to Beijing and Mr. Shi Jinping’s visit to Iran, initial discussions have been made to work together.

This document was overwhelmed by the previous government several times in the previous government. Our proposals went to reform the Chinese. The manner you said, and on the Chinese side, there is a well -decentralized set of authority with a comprehensive view between the two parties, that the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister’s Development and Reform Commission, who was a powerful person, for this. The theorem left to fix the problems.

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when the agreement wants to sign in And that direction, then Mr. Zarif’s Foreign Ministry was trying a lot, and the two sides came. Eventually they signed with the Foreign Minister, but the two countries were planned to be higher than the ministry. To be seriously pursued.

, the deputy prime minister appointed, and Dr. Larijani was also appointed by the Supreme Leader. The leadership means the sovereignty of the country and by the government. Formed- In various areas and frameworks of cooperation in the sector of industry, agriculture, mining, commercial communication, technology and technology, everything was determined, and it was suggested that it went for work and this situation due to elections in Iran and government change.

تسنیم: شما این مدل را یک مدل مطلوب می‌دانید که از طرف ایران هم یک نفر باشد؟

**یک تمرکزی اگر وجود داشته باشد نه فقط برای همکاری با چین، برای بقیه هم همینطور Is. اگر ما برای آن جاهایی که جزء اهداف بلند مدت و اساسی ماست که سه چیز است در اقتصاد: جذب سرمایه، تکنولوژی و فناوری و بازار صادرات؛ این سه تا مسئله مسئله اصلی و اساسی کشور ما در مقوله اقتصاد است.

در مقوله توسعه رونق پیشرفت کشور اینهاست دیگر ما باید یه برای هر کدام از این کشورهایی که یکی از اینها استراتژیک و مسئله اصلی است یعنی یا جذب سرمایه شان برایمان خیلی مهم است یا بازار خیلی اساسی و مهمی برای ما است یا از نظر تکنولوژی و فناوری برای ما مهم است باید اینها مسئول داشته باشد  که بتواند بین این تضاد منافع و رقابتی که در دستگاه‌ها وجود دارد که هر کدام بخواهند کار خودشان را فقط پیش ببرند بتواند به عنوان یک منشور و یک دالان عقلایی با اولویت‌های کشور در چارچوب رونق و توسعه و پیشرفت کشور حرکت کند.

 مثلاً فرض کنید مقداری پول در چین داریم، یک اعتباری آنجا برایمان وجود دارد می توانیم یک سری پروژه به چینی ها پیشنهاد بدهیم، هر وزارت خانه می آید می گوید مسئله من اولویت کشور و اگر نشود خلاصه همه چیز به هم می ریزد. این به چین می رود اما اگر یک مجموعه‌ای باشد که این کارها را پیگیری کند می تواند این تمرکز را ایجاد کند آن طرف کاملاً تناسب دارد یعنی حتی دو تا شرکت از چین وقتی می خواهند به ایران بیایند و با همدیگر رقابت کنند توسط وزارت بازرگانی چین برایشان تعریف شده که تا کجا می توانید با هم رقابت کنید کجا یک باید عقب نشینی کنید و واگذاری کند به بقیه که طرف دیگری نبرد.

اما این طرف ممکن است یک همچین وضعیتی نباشد اصلا ساختار کشور ما این را حکم نمی کند ما اصطلاحاً خیلی مردم سالارانه‌تر حرکت می‌کنیم. بر این اساس الان امروز که ما داریم با همدیگر صحبت می‌کنیم در مثلاً اوایل اردیبهشت 1403 معاون اول رئیس جمهور مسئول مناسبات با چین است این معنایش مشخص است؛ معاون  اول آنقدر گرفتاری‌های فراوان دارد که ممکن است نرسد به اینکه همه را سر خط کند متناسب سازی کند قراردادها را دنبال کنند.باید دولت فکر دیگری کند و چارچوب بدهد.

من معتقدم باید نقش مثلاً وزارت امور خارجه در این قضیه پررنگ‌تر شود که بتواند بخش‌های مختلف را بیاورد یا یک نفر را که از بقیه قضایا درگیر نیست، مثل اینکه هر روز بخواهد قیمت ها را کنترل کند و مسائل جاری را رفع و رجوع کند فکرش بلند مدت تر باشد بتواند به مسائل اساسی تر برسد و نقش بخش خصوصی و مردم و اتاق‌های بازرگانی و صنایع مختلف را در قضیه جدی‌تر کند.

اقتصاد ما سه بخش دارد دولتی، تعاونی و بخش خصوصی که همه اینها در دولت انجام می شود  و تعاونی و بخش خصوصی خیلی نقش ضعیفی در این قضایا دارند، دولت باید خودش را از تصدیگری کنار بکشد و حضور و رقابت با بخش خصوصی و تعاونی تنظیم کننده، راهنما، جهت دهنده، حمایت کننده، پشتیبانی کننده و اقتصاد را  انشالله راه بیندازیم.

تسنیم: در دورانی که شما مسئولیت داشتید ما هم شاهد برجام بودیم هم شاهد شکسته شدن برجام بودیم. در این دو بازه رابطه چینی ها با ما چطور بود؟ به نظرم این یک سنگ محک خیلی مهمی است که ما ببینیم در آن بازه دو سه ساله که برجام به صورت جدی تر پیگیری می شد آیا حضور چینی ها پررنگ تر بود یا نه؟ سعی می‌کنند خودشان را با نرم‌های بین‌المللی تنظیم کنند تا اینکه یک نگاه راهبردی داشته باشند؟

**فراموش نکنیم که بخش میانی کشور ما، بخش تکنوکرات‌ها یا کارگزاران و بروکرات‌های کشور ما عمدتاً تحصیل کرده غرب و اروپا و امریکا هستند و کمتر در شرق و چین حالا تا یک حدی در هند هم بودند ولی مثلاً در چین و در آن منطقه کمتر بوده اند؛ به طور طبیعی اینها با حال و هوا، فرهنگ، منش، خصوصیات تجاری، مناسبات بازرگانی آن طرف بیشتر آشنا هستند تا با شرق. الان یک رگه ضعیفی تازگی ها ظرف این چند ساله به دلایل مختلف در رابطه با چین شروع شده و این خودش تعیین کننده و اثرگذار است که وقتی مثلاً دو تا پیشنهاد می آید برای یک کارشناس در یک وزارتخانه، یکی دستگاه غربی است و دیگری چینی که تازه چینی هم آن چهارچوب ها و ظرافت ها و سوابق غربی را ندارد؛ به طور طبیعی این گرایش دارد که طرف غربی را انتخاب کند.

بعد از برجام این فضای یک مقدار بیشتر باز شده بود. شرکت‌های مختلف غربی، هیئت‌های گوناگون آمدند. چینی‌ها یک مقدار شوک شده بودند که حالا فرانسوی، انگلیسی، اروپایی، بلژیکی، اتریشی، آلمانی می روند و می آیند اصلاً هتل‌ها جا نداشت، آنها یک مقدار حالت صبر و انتظار پیدا کردند.

این طرف فضایی ایجاد شده بود که حالا دیگر پنجره‌های گوناگونی به سمت ما باز شد ولی درعمل که رفتیم  به آن شرایطی که به وجود آمد و قضیه آمدن ترامپ و آن فضایی که ایجاد شده بود دور اول دولت گذشته (دولت آقای روحانی) نسبتا از نظر اقتصادی و… شرایط خیلی خوبی فراهم شد تورم مثلاً تک رقمی شد، رشد قابل توجه شد، سرمایه‌های خیلی زیادی آمد فرانسوی‌ها، انگلیسی ها، آلمانی ها شرکتهای بین المللی و بیمه ها و پست آمد حمل و نقل شکل گرفت یعنی همه چیز رفت تا خورد به آن مسئله.

خلاصه سوء تفاهمی که بین دو طرف به وجود آمد و آمدن ترامپ و آن فضایی که به وجود آمد؛ آرام آرام در دور دوم آقای روحانی فضا را به سمت دیگری برد، دیگر شما شاهد بودید که مشکلات و مسئله تحریم‌ها و گسترش آنها اتفاق افتاد ولی تا همین امروز برجام کارکرد خودش را داشته است. به این معنا که البته این را فراموش نکنید که آنچه در این کشور اتفاق افتاده کار یک آدم و یک دولت و یک وزارتخانه نیست؛ کل کشور تصمیم گرفته بود که برجام دنبال شود به نتیجه برسد. حالا ممکن است همه آنچه که ما خواستیم اتفاق نیفتاده ولی در حد مقدوراتی که می شده. این نبوده که دولت موفق شده این کار را انجام بدهد یا یک وزارتخانه یا وزارت خارجه کرده، دبیرخانه شورای عالی امنیت ملی کرده نه؛ کشور تصمیم گرفته همه نکات مثبتش هم برای کل کشوراست از بالا تا پایین.

ولی واقعیت این است که بعد از روی کار آمدن ترامپ و فضایی که به وجود آمد ما آن دستاوردها را دیگر نتوانستیم آنطور که باید و شاید حفظ کنیم ولی هوشیاری ایران این بود که از برجام خارج نشد امریکا اشتباهی که کردند از برجام خارج شدن از مسائل مربوط به برجام و بندهایی که در برجام وجود داشت نمی‌توانستند علیه ما استفاده کنند، یعنی خودشان را محروم کردند با آن غروری که ترامپ و کاخ سفید داشت خارج شدند نتوانستند این کار را ادامه بدهند.

ما حتی همین امروز هم توانستیم از برخی از مواهب برجام استفاده کنیم مثلاً تحریم‌ها برنگشته چون هنوز ما عضو برجام هستیم هنوز رعایت می کنیم، طبیعتاً مثل گذشته نیست ولی به هر حال توانستیم هنوز هم که هنوز است از این شرایطی که برجام فراهم کرد، استفاده کنیم. اما در دوره دوم دیگر اصلاً دولت دوم آقای روحانی قبل از این دولت فعلی شرایط سخت‌تر شد اصلاً ما مشکلات زیادی پیدا کردیم که آن مشکلات ادامه پیدا کرده یعنی تراکم همینجوری آمده الان هم بخشی از مشکلاتی که این دولت با آن مواجه است مربوط به همان مسائل دیگر همینطوری روی هم متراکم شده است امیدوارم که دیگر برای دولت بعدی این مشکلات نباشد.

تسنیم: مشخصا می گویند در پروژه میدان نفتی آزادگان دولت آقای روحانی برخوردی با چینی ها کرد که آنها این جمع بندی پیدا کردند که دیگر ما نمی‌توانیم تا زمانی که برجام است و یک نگاه مثلاً همانطور که گفتید به سمت کشورهای غربی استما اینجا کار کنیم؟

**در خصوص پروژه آزادگان می دانید که این یک طرح مشترک بود بین ایران- فرانسه یعنی شرکت توتال و چینی‌ها شرکت نفت چین و قرار این بود که اگر به هر دلیلی مشکلاتی به وجود آمد و غربی‌ها که حالا آن کنسرسیوم غربی و توتال خواستند از قضیه خارج شوند، چینی‌ها درصد آنها را هم دنبال کنند و این پروژه آزادگان پیگیری شود.

تسنیم:یعنی شما می‌دانستید که احتمال خروج آنها است؟

** طبیعی بود که ایران اعتماد نمی‌توانست خیلی به غربی‌ها به دلیل سوابقی که در گذشته بود اعتماد کند، این مسئله پیش‌بینی شده بود و چینی‌ها پذیرفته بودند توافق بین سه طرف بود بعد از اینکه مسئله برجام دچار آن مشکل شد و فرانسوی‌ها و توتال عقب نشینی کردند آن کنسرسیوم جمع کرد و رفت. چینی ها همینطور قضیه را گذاشتند. هرچه پیگیری شد توسط ایران، اسناد و مدارک وزارت نفت این را نشان می دهد، شما هیچ سندی نمی‌توانید پیدا کنید که ایران مقابله کرده باشد با اینکه چینی‌ها بیایند و آن کسر و کمبود فرانسوی‌ها و غربی‌ها را دنبال کنند. اصلا چینی‌ها بعد از آن نگران شدند خودشان که دچار تحریم‌های دوگانه نشوند و اینکه بیایند و کار فرانسوی‌ها را بخواهند دنبال کنند و پروژه آزادگان را پی بگیرند.

ممکن است امریکایی‌ها تحریم‌ها را بر آنها هم بار کنند بر این اساس جلو نیامدند همین ادعا را شما می‌توانید از جهت اسناد و مدارک بررسی کنید یعنی خود همین مجموعه می‌تواند برود و ببیند که آیا سندی وجود دارد که ایران قدمی چینی‌ها می‌خواستند در رابطه با آزادگان بردارند، اصلاً در چهارچوب منافع ملی ما نبوده یک همچین کاری را کنیم. اصلاً مهم نیست دولت چه کسی است؟ این ضد منافع ملی است اگر بگویید که چینی‌ها می‌خواستند جای فرانسوی‌ها را و غربی ها را در آزادگان پر کنند و تعهداتشان انجام بدهند، ایران اجازه نداد همچین چیزی شود؛ اصلا منطقی و عقلایی نیست. بنابراین اینها عمدتا تبلیغات و رقابت های باندی و گروهی است.

تسنیم: به نظرم یکی از مهمترین مسائلی که توسعه کشور را به خودش وابسته کرده و یکی از راه‌های جدید جایابی ایران در نظم‌های بین‌المللی، بندر اقیانوسی چابهار و فضایی که در ساحل مکران وجود دارد. به نظرتان ما مکران را در همین افقی که داریم صحبت می‌کنیم باید یک بندر شمالی جنوبی یا یک کریدور شمالی جنوبی ببینیم یا یک بندر شرقی غربی ببینیم که یک اتصالی به چین پیدا می کند.

** در منطقه مکران که آن طرف تنگه است واقعاً یکی از بنادر اقیانوسی ما است و یک امکان برای ما است به طور طبیعی ما در آنجا باید توسعه بدهیم. این به معنای این نیست که در دنیای امروز و در مسائل امنیتی امروز دیگر تنگه ها مثل گذشته نیست که بشود ببندید و مثلاً اصلا اینطوری نیست خیلی اینطرف تنگه با آن طرف تنگه تفاوت ندارد ولی از جهت دسترسی از جهت ارتباطات چابهار یک موقعیت بسیار ارزنده و برجسته دارد.

به دلیل نزدیکی آن به افغانستان نزدیکی از نظر مسیر به کشورهای شمالی آسیای میانه و روسیه و ارتباط آنها با جهان؛ اولویتش شمال جنوبی و شرق غربی هر دو است. یعنی اگر ما بین چابهار و گوادر پاکستان یک نسبتی برقرار کنیم و در آن چهارچوبی که گفتم در همکاری‌های زنجیره‌ای تامین منطقه و ایجاد زنجیره ارزش منطقه‌ای بتوانیم همکاری کنیم؛ چابهار هم می‌تواند نقش برجسته‌ای در رابطه با گذرگاه های شرق غربی داشته باشد و هم شمال جنوبی به ویژه شمال جنوبی می تواند یکی از بندرگاه‌های اصلی برای کمربند راه در جاده ابریشم دریایی باشد بتواند از چین به چابهار و گوادر با همدیگر ارتباطات داشته باشند.

تسنیم: من اینجوری از فرمایشتان می فهمم که به یک معنا چینی‌ها نمی‌خواهند چابهار رقیب گوادر شود،‌در نتیجه آیا امکان مشارکت و همکاری وجود دارد؟

بله کاملاً امکان‌پذیر است. چراکه گوادر اگر بخواهد به سمت شمال برود ناامنی در بخش‌های شمالی پاکستان و در افغانستان وجود دارد باید از طریق ایران این اتفاق بیفتد. هم اقتصادی‌تر است هم زیر بسترهای قوی‌تر و مهم‌تری وجود دارد هم امنیت بالاتری دارد و ارزان‌تر و اقتصادی‌تر است. بنابراین چابهار هم شمال-جنوبی هم شرقی-غربی اهمیت دارد منتها ما نباید آنجا را فقط به عنوان بندر و گذرگاه ببینیم؛ بلکه باید روی مسئله ارزش افزوده در آنجا فکر کنیم یعنی ایجاد یک شرایط و صنعتی که ما بتوانیم یک چیزهایی را بیاوریم آنجا تبدیلش کنیم. صنعت بتواند ارزش ایجاد کند و با ارزش افزوده بالاتری بتواند این بندر کار کند عین آن چیزی که امروز در جبل علی است آنچه که در پایین در عمان دارد شکل می‌گیرد در چابهار هم بتواند شکل بگیرد.

تسنیم: به عنوان سوال آخر این موانع توسعه ما و چین چه چیزی است و چگونه می‌توانیم رابطه را گسترش بدهیم؟

** موانع رابطه ما و چین چند تاست: یکی این حاکمیت غربی ها بر قوانین و ضوابط بین المللی است این یکی از مسائل که به هر حال آنها نسبت به ما و چینی‌ها در این مسئله قدرت بیشتری دارند. دومی عبور ما  از این تنگه و تنگنای تحریم‌ها و مسئله fatf و مشکلات ازین قبیل است که بتوانیم عبور کنیم. سومی ایجاد تمرکز در این سمت  است که بتواند مدیریت روابط یک طرفه نباشد بلکه مدیریت روابط دو طرفه بر اساس اولویت‌ها و شرایط خاص بتوانند آن را دنبال کنند و بتوانیم ما در چهارچوب هم روابط دوجانبه هم روابط منطقه‌ای که در زنجیره‌ها مثل بریکس مثل بی آر آی یا همان کمربند راه، مثل اکو، اتحادیه اوراسیایی و مجمع اقتصادی بوآئو که مجمع اقتصادی آسیایی است.در این چهارچوب‌ها بتوانیم مناسبات‌مان را با چینی ها و روس ها و هندی ها متوازن کنیم.

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