The start of the 2024 US marathon; The winner of the duel, Biden or Trump?

Mehr News Agency, International Group: Countdown to the US presidential election on November 5, 2024 ( Tuesday, November 15, 1403) will be held, it has started; The elections that will come in five and a half months and will determine the political fate of this country for the next four years.

The hot oven of the election with 2 controversial debates

A few days ago, in a space of four hours, the program of holding a presidential debate between Joe Biden” The current president of the United States and “Donald Trump”, the former president of this country, turned from a rumor into a reality and made headlines in the media of this country and the world.

Although the details of how the debates will be held have not been released, it seems that the Democratic and Republican candidates will face each other twice on June 27 (July 7) and September 10 ( 20 September) face each other. Debates are also organized by “CNN” and “ABC”.

Biden in connection with the first debate hosted by CNN in June. Yes, he wrote in a post on “X” that “I received an invitation from CNN for a debate on June 27th and I accepted it. Now it’s your turn, Donald. As you said: anywhere, anytime, anywhere.”

Biden announced his readiness for the September debate in another post and wrote that I I received and accepted an invitation from E BC to debate on September 10th…

It was very strange and unexpected that Biden immediately withdrew from both of these debates. welcome Trump, who always invited Biden to the debate challenge, was delighted by this news and Wrote: “Proudly CNN debates Biden the fraud, the worst president in US history and the real threat to democracy on June 27th and on September 10th with Yes I accepted BC.”

The polls tip the scales in favor of Trump

The difference between Biden and Trump is not high in terms of popularity in polls, but this Kefah The scales are weighted in favor of the previous US president. From the eyes of the observers, Biden has not yet met the expectations of many voters, although he has achieved some success in the economic field and controlling inflation, but he has faced crises in It is skirted inside and outside.

The summary of most polls indicates that satisfaction with the performance of Biden is at the lowest level. It has reached during his presidency and the number is below 40% and sometimes below 38%. These polls have measured Biden‘s performance in the fields of foreign policy (especially the war in Ukraine and helping the Zionist regime in the current genocide in the Gaza Strip) and economic performance and approach to immigration. .

Biden enjoyed about 57% satisfaction at the beginning of his presidency (January 2021). In August of the same year, it decreased to 44%; A number that was never exceeded even later. His popularity dropped to the lowest number of 37% in April, October and November 2023, and now it is the same.

The personality of Biden from his critics in terms of leadership and decision-making power, lack of transparency and openness Expression, lack of charismatic features and doubts about age and mental capabilities have been seriously criticized.

On the other side of the story, Trump has also faced many conflicts and legal challenges, especially since 2023. He has been called to several courts and faced with very heavy tax fines. However, the efforts to disqualify him in the elections did not reach anywhere and he was able to achieve an important legal victory to participate in the 2024 elections.

Therefore, legal challenges have not had a significant impact on Trump’s position. Another characteristic of the previous American president is polarizing the space and breaking cultural norms and adopting very strict and extreme positions towards immigrants.

In terms of popularity, it can be said that Trump has followed the path of Biden photo. According to the average of all polls, while his approval rating had dropped to around 38% in January 2021, it gradually reached 40% in August 2021, 42% in June 2022, and 43% in February 2024.

However, the polls do not testify to the sharp ups and downs of Trump’s approval rating in recent months. He is apparently in better physical and mental condition than Biden and for this reason, less criticism has been directed at him. Of course, Trump’s critics consider his leadership character to be tense, without moral principles and commitment to social and costly systems in domestic and more importantly foreign policy, and his performance during the they condemn Corona.

The latest poll conducted a few days ago by the “538” election monitoring organization (FiveThirtyEight), showed that the results of the polls were very close. Trump and Biden received slightly above 40% of the vote. Trump currently has an advantage of 0.8 percentage points, which is within the margin of statistical error. “Robert FF Kennedy Junior” as an independent candidate also received about 10% of the votes. dedicated; Although the support for independent party candidates is higher in pre-election polls than at the moment of the actual election.

Trump’s chances in gray states

However, the 2024 election appears to be a much closer contest than the 2020 contest; When only 43 thousand votes out of 155 million votes, Biden won the election. So with less than 6 months left to the election, the gray states (rotation or swing) have become increasingly important.

A new New York Times and Sinai College poll on who will win the 2024 election shows Trump in five out of six states. Gray is ahead of Biden. Gray states are usually Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

The poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania. is, while Biden is leading in Michigan. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Trump is the preferred candidate among likely voters and Biden among registered voters.

New York Times analyst Nit Cohen believes that Trump’s power is mainly due to his electoral gains. The donors are young, black and Hispanic.

Though Trump’s chances to date in these swing states for the 2024 election are higher than Biden’s assessment. But according to the experts, none of the 2 main parties and their candidates have strong support in the gray states so that they can rely on the votes of the electoral assembly of that state. These states are highly targeted by election campaigns because winning these states will make them win the elections.

Now we have to wait and see what plans Biden and Trump have in the critical months ahead. To attract the votes of swing states.