What are the 6 main scenarios for the future of Gaza/the most likely scenario?

According to the international group Tasnim News Agency, since the beginning of the Gaza war on October 7, 2023, several scenarios It has been discussed about this war and its consequences and results in the future, which can be summarized in six scenarios:

– The first scenario is Israel’s military rule over the Gaza Strip or a part of it.

– The second scenario is the formation of a local government or administration by some Palestinian parties and personalities at the same time as Israel’s military and administrative rule on the Gaza Strip.

– The third scenario is the administration of Gaza by Arab or international forces or The fourth scenario is the continuation of the work of the government committee, that is, the government of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, or the formation of a government led by Hamas in alliance with Palestinian groups, or the formation of a government by independent personalities supporting Hamas. /p>

-The fifth scenario is the administration of the Gaza Strip by the self-governing organizations under the authority of Israel.

-The sixth scenario is the formation of the Palestinian National Salvation Government with a national agreement among the Palestinians.

Which is the most likely scenario for the future of Gaza?

Each of these scenarios has its proponents who want to put their own scenario into place. Therefore, each of these scenarios can be probable or unlikely, and we must see how the future events will take place and what will be the effect on these scenarios. We can predict and some cannot be predicted. Meanwhile, the “Masarat” study center has been preparing a research about the war scenarios in the Gaza Strip and its future for some time. This center has formed a research team for this purpose, which uses various methods and tools to accurately measure the scenarios.

The gradual displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip

Based on this research, it is expected that one scenario or several scenarios overlap with each other. For example, if we consider the issue of displacement of Palestinians, we will realize that the plan of the Zionist regime to displace the Palestinian nation in the Gaza Strip has failed or at least it has stagnated and maybe it will be reactivated.

Now we are witnessing a kind of displacement among the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, which some may wrongly call it “voluntary displacement”, which started with the departure of more than 100,000 Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, and this number will increase. Because most parts of the Gaza Strip are unlivable and it will take a long time for life to return to these areas. Also, if the war lasts for a few more months, the number of displaced people will increase, or perhaps the displacement of Palestinians will take on new forms. Also, if the reconstruction operation of the Gaza Strip is postponed after the war stops, this issue will affect the process of displacement of Palestinians. It will have an impact, especially since one of the main goals of the port that the United States has established on the coast of Gaza is the migration of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip without obstacles and without paying high costs, which can affect the process of displacement of Palestinians. Of course, the amount of displacement of Palestinians and their departure from the Gaza Strip depends on developments, and this amount may increase or decrease, and in fact any scenario may happen. Saudi Arabia with Israel

The probability of each scenario depends on the chance of reaching a promising or deceptive political process and whether, in exchange for this possible political process, the normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel in exchange for The cessation of the Gaza war and the establishment of a Palestinian state will be concluded or Saudi Arabia will adopt another policy. This scenario also depends on the victory of Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the US presidential elections. If Trump wins, the worst scenario will be the most likely scenario, and this issue must be carefully evaluated and calculated by the Palestinians, Arabs, and international parties. There is not much time left until the American presidential elections and it is clear that Netanyahu wants to avoid and delay (ending the war) until these elections are held and has bet on Trump’s victory.

is that the Palestinian side (referring to the Palestinian Authority) is betting on the victory of Biden, who disappointed all the hopes of this organization, and is not ready for the possibility of Trump’s victory in this election. Meanwhile, in terms of the Palestinian resistance, It is better that the ceasefire deal and the exchange of prisoners be done before the American elections and not be postponed until after the elections. Meanwhile, the third scenario and the fifth scenario mean the administration of Gaza by a foreign party, and the control of the establishment. The self-governing authorities on the Gaza Strip overlap with each other; In a transitional period, Gaza will be governed by a foreign Arab or international or joint force, and after that the Palestinian Authority will return to the Gaza Strip and rule it, which is more compatible with the desires of Americans and Israelis.

Continuous conspiracy of the Zionists to annex the West Bank

When we examine the scenarios of the war in the Gaza Strip, we should not think of another war in the West Bank by the occupying regime. The West has been launched, let’s ignore it; Because the West Bank is considered the heart of Palestine and is at the top of the goals of the invaders. The extreme cabinet of the Zionist regime headed by Netanyahu is trying to annex the West Bank as soon as possible; As the policies and occupation actions of Israel at the present time show, the crimes committed by the Zionists are not only limited to their genocidal war against the Gaza Strip, but it is a new and more brutal attempt to completely destroy the Palestinian cause in all aspects.

On this basis, the extreme right-wing cabinet of the Zionist regime has publicly demanded the annexation of the West Bank, the permanent occupation of the Gaza Strip, and the return to settlements and the displacement of Palestinians, and there are also other extreme movements inside and outside the Israeli cabinet that are under the control of security. The Gaza Strip invites and tries to create a government composed of Palestinian parties (dependent on the Palestinian Authority and in coordination with the Zionists) for Israel’s control over the Gaza Strip, similar to what is happening in the West Bank. In the meantime, the party affiliated with Avigdor Lieberman, the former war minister of the Zionist regime and the current head of the “Israel is our home” party, demands the annexation of the populated areas of the West Bank to Jordan and the restoration of Egypt’s tutelage over the Gaza Strip.

Effect Overthrow of Netanyahu’s cabinet on the future of Gaza

While studying these scenarios, we must pay attention to the fact that the current Israeli cabinet may remain standing or be overthrown, and each of these scenarios depends on which was said will have an impact.

But even if another cabinet comes to work, its position towards the cause of Palestine and the Palestinian nation and resistance is no different from the position of the previous cabinet; Especially in the context of the current war and its goals against the Palestinians. Rather, only the methods and tactics of this anti-Palestinian cabinet will be different from the previous cabinet.

What is the best scenario for the Palestinian people?

In the meantime, without a doubt The best and most favorable scenario for the Palestinian people is the defeat of the occupying regime and preventing this regime from reaching its declared and undeclared goals in the war. Also, liberating the Gaza Strip, lifting the siege, ending the occupation of the West Bank, forming an independent Palestinian state on the way to realizing the full rights of the Palestinians, and rebuilding the Gaza Strip as soon as possible is the best scenario that can be imagined for the Palestinians.

The realization of this The scenario requires the national unity of the Palestinians based on a realistic campaign political project that will realize the goals of the Palestinians at this stage or at least prevent the occupying regime from reaching its goals.

But in the current situation, despite the necessity The immediate unity among all Palestinians, the complete stabilization of Palestinian unity seems far from the mind.

According to Tasnim, here the author implicitly refers to the betrayals of the Palestinian Authority against the Palestinian people, which despite the genocidal war and The great massacre that the occupying regime has launched in the Gaza Strip, this organization still wants to remain subject to the conditions, demands and dictates of America and Israel. However, we should not give in to the current reality that shows the divide between the Palestinians. It is possible to move step by step towards the option of Palestinian unity. Palestinians must gradually move in the direction of this unity and show their will according to the national interests of Palestine to everyone and first of all to the institutions of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which must be rebuilt based on the Palestinian national project, based on the protection of the fundamental rights and goals of the Palestinians. be imposed.