Fear and hope about the peace of Ukraine; Different motives of Putin and Zelensky

According to Webangah News quoted by Tasnim News agency, two years after Russia’s war in Ukraine, opposition to Zelensky is forming. A group considers the war in Ukraine to be Zelensky’s war and blames him for prolonging this war.

Zelensky also believes in response to this behavior that Ukraine’s partners “are responsible for Russia’s defeat in the war are afraid” because it would lead to “unpredictable geopolitical consequences”. By stating this issue, he accuses them of doing little in front of Russia in order to achieve victory and join his country to the European Union and NATO. Western countries and their European allies are trying to manage and control this crisis in a very cautious way. So that many European allies have announced Ukraine joining the European Union and NATO in the distant years and have disappointed Ukraine from joining and being supported by NATO in the near future.

Fear or caution is a word that should be taken into consideration in the recent behavior of Western leaders and European allies in the continuation of the Ukraine crisis and the reasons for this strategy should be explained.

Western leaders should focus on the far more immediate dangers posed by a Russian victory. Russia has now gained the initiative in Ukraine and is advancing. Putin is more confident than ever and is clearly preparing his whole country for a long war of attrition.

The appointment of an economist as Russia’s defense minister heralds a long conflict. Time is with victory. If the West does not dramatically increase its military support for Ukraine, there is a chance for Russia to succeed.

A Russian victory would transform the geopolitical environment and lead to increased international support for the Kremlin and demoralization. It will be west. Countries across the global South will abandon neutrality and rush to foster closer ties with Moscow. Materially, Russia’s conquest of Ukraine would have deeper implications for European security. Putin currently commands the largest military in Europe. By weakening and taking control of Ukraine’s economy, Russia will become the dominant power in the global agricultural markets and will have a powerful tool to expand its influence in the international community.

If Russia does not win the field In Ukraine, every government in Europe is obliged to drastically increase their defense spending. Many have begun rearming in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Sweden can be mentioned among these countries. The international consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine would be equally catastrophic. The period of peace and relative progress that came after the end of the Cold War will be replaced by a new period of international transition.

In the meantime, some news reports from Russian sources of sending Putin’s signal to stop the war and reach a ceasefire through negotiations that recognize the current lines of war. And it should be based on a plan that was in the previous attempt to reach an agreement in the first weeks of the war and not based on what one side wants. But we should not ignore the fact that as long as Zelensky is in power, no agreement is possible unless Russia manages to negotiate through its allies and their role and influence on the West and Europe; Because Zelensky has opposed Russia’s terms for peace and talks with Putin.

In 2022, Zelensky signed a decree officially declaring peace talks with Putin “impossible.” And he added: “It is clear and obvious that he will not engage with the Russian leader because Russia’s attempt to annex Ukrainian territory means that there is nothing to discuss.” It aims to unite international opinion on how to end the war. These talks were held at the initiative of Zelensky, who said that Putin should not participate.

Switzerland has not invited Russia. Moscow has said that the talks are not valid without its presence. Ukraine and Switzerland want the presence of Russia’s allies, including China. Regarding Zelensky’s request to attend the Swiss peace summit, China has announced that it will support any international peace conference on Ukraine that is also recognized by Russia.

Beijing will hold It supports the timely international peace conference, which is recognized by both Russia and Ukraine. The conference should “include equal participation of all parties and fair discussion” on peace plans. China supports all efforts that help to resolve the Ukraine crisis peacefully.

Putin’s positive signal regarding the war in Ukraine may have been for various reasons. Some of these reasons can include the following:

Economic pressures and sanctions: Extensive economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia can put a lot of pressure on Russia. Import the Russian economy. Putin may seek to reduce these pressures and establish economic stability.

Costs of war: The war in Ukraine has brought a lot of military and human costs to Russia. These costs can put pressure on the financial and human resources of the country, and Putin may seek to reduce these costs.

International pressures: The international community strongly Pressure is now on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Due to these pressures, Putin may have decided to make a peace proposal to avoid further international isolation. It can be used as a tactical tool to achieve specific strategic interests. Putin may hope to achieve some of his goals through negotiations that have not been achieved on the battlefield.

Reaction to changes on the battlefield: The situation on the ground in Ukraine may have changed not in Russia’s favor. In such a situation, presenting a peace proposal can be a solution to prevent further weakening of Russia’s military position.

Currently, it is difficult to predict peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine. The war between these two countries has many complications and various factors affect the negotiation process, including political, military, economic and international issues. No decision has been made. The situation of war and negotiations is constantly changing and many countries and international organizations are trying to mediate. However, in order to reach an agreement, China’s influence and role as one of the countries influencing the decisions of the West and Europe should not be ignored. Eurasia

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