new era; A review of Iraq’s foreign policy after ISIS: Part I

International Group Tasnim News Agency It is trying to describe and analyze Iraq’s foreign policy in the period after the destruction of ISIS in three parts. These three sections cover the years 2018 to 2024, which include the foreign policy of the governments of Adel Abdul Mahdi, Mustafa Al-Kazemi and Mohammad Shia al-Sudani. The first part of this note is dedicated to the analysis of the direction of Iraq’s foreign policy during the period of Adel Abdul Mahdi, the former prime minister of Iraq.

From the defeat of ISIS in Iraq to the beginning of Abdul Mahdi’s prime minister

The complete control of Iraqi security and military forces over its territory and the defeat of ISIS in 2018 put Iraq in a new position. The political mechanism and the activities of the parties started once again with the holding and announcement of the results of the 2018 elections, and the preliminary stage for the election of the prime minister led to Adel Abdul Mahdi after 5 months from the election date of May 12, 2018.

The multiplicity of parties and interests of individuals in governmental, official, non-governmental and hidden institutions in every election brings complications to the formation of the government in Iraq, and naturally the presence of such forces has a significant impact on It will have relations with countries and foreign policy of a country. The shaky and unstable coalitions of the factions are self-explanatory of the challenges of the Abdul Mahdi government at the beginning of the journey, which is considered rare in the contemporary history of Iraq.  

The lack of consensus of the Shia House on the choice of the Prime Minister

The main differences of the Shia House are to Conflicts between Moqtada Sadr and other Shia currents are limited. Considering the experience of the Sadr movement in the organizational struggle against the American invaders, the establishment of Saraya al-Salam and its continuous integration with Al-Hashd al-Shaabi with the aim of liberating the areas occupied by ISIS brought positive results, but over time, the differences of the Saraya al-Salam group under the leadership of Moqtada Sadr with other Al-Hashd al-Shaabi forces had an opportunity to emerge and emerge.

After taking control of the city of Samarra and the northern areas of Baghdad, these forces refused to retreat and They refused to hand over these areas and bases to the government forces and entered into an armed conflict with the Iraqi army and police. These actions led to an increase in the differences of other Shiite parties with Moqtada Sadr.

Moqtada Sadr, as the leader of the Sauron Movement, claimed that until The forces fighting against ISIS should not hand over the areas they have dominated to the army and the police, and the forces under his leadership will not retreat from the said areas. It should be noted that these differences still exist to this day. , Martyr Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, ” src=”https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1403/03/08/14030308144009849301831810.jpg”/>

The mentioned issues set the stage for not forming an alliance with other Iraqi Shia parties. Moqtada al-Sadr’s previous enmity with Qais al-Khazali and Nouri al-Maliki was added to the reason for the Sauron coalition led by Sadr to avoid an alliance with the government of law (Nuri al-Maliki) and Fatah (Hadi al-Amiri).

These differences were not exclusive to the Shiites. After the controversial independence referendum in 2017, the Kurds faced off against Shia and Sunni parties and moved the area of ​​conflict from Kurd-Kurdish to Kurdish-Shia and Kurdish-Sunni until finally, they lost the support of the neighboring countries. . But since the role of the Kurdish element in the Iraqi political system cannot be eliminated, other parties entered into negotiations with the democratic, patriotic and change parties to form a government.

Sunni parties that were first under a coalition called “Al-Mahor al-Watani” were first divided into two and then into three parts. Khamis al-Khanjar (the leader of al-Mashgait Al-Arabi faction) who sought to gain the leadership of the Sunnis, saw Osama al-Nujaifi (the head of the Iraqi Al-Qarar party) as an obstacle on his way. He considered the alliance with Hadi Al-Amiri (head of the Fatah coalition) and the understanding that the Sunnis under his leadership and the Shiites under Hadi Al-Amiri had to appoint Al-Halbousi (parliament representative and former governor of Anbar province) as the head of the parliament, as the solution to Najifi’s removal. Therefore, Abdul Mahdi’s government was formed with an unbalanced situation and internal party differences.

Relations with neighbors

Abd al-Mahdi wanted to return Iraq to its previous relations with the Arab countries. He believed that after 1990, Iraq was not able to restore and improve its relations with its neighbors as in the previous decades. The definition of mutual interests is based on the diversity of relations with neighboring countries and economic initiatives, including the Prime Minister’s solutions. The former Iraq was to overcome the crisis in relations with its neighbors.

Experience has shown that prime ministers in countries with a parliamentary system, if the support inside and Especially if they don’t have lobbyists in parliament and party leaders, they face serious problems in managing internal issues and foreign relations.

Therefore At first, Adel Abdul Mahdi’s base had the support of the majority faction in the parliament, but after a few days of his government’s inauguration, political differences between parties and coalitions entered a new stage.

Despite the opposition of the Sadr movement to the government of the time and the conflict with the Fatah coalition led by Hadi Amiri, Abdul Mahdi was trying to somehow follow the foreign policy scenario considered by the Sadr movement (restoration of relations with Arab countries).

For this purpose, after the collapse of Baghdad’s relations with Cairo and Riyadh during Nouri al-Maliki’s era, Abdul Mahdi chose Egypt and Saudi Arabia as destinations. He chose his journey first. Pursuing Haider al-Abadi’s initiative in establishing the Iraqi-Saudi Relations Coordination Council and traveling to this country twice in less than 5 months showed Abdul Mahdi’s efforts to take advantage of the bitter and sweet experiences of Nouri al-Maliki and Haider al-Abadi’s prime ministership.

Understanding the sensitive situation in the region after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and the targeting of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities, Abdul Mahdi tried to become an active actor between Iran and Saudi Arabia from a Iran and America on the other side. But the main issue was that Trump’s administration fundamentally opposed Adel Abdul Mahdi’s prime ministership. American, Donald Trump, Martyr General Qassem Soleimani, ” src=”https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1403/03/08/14030308143929864301831510.jpg”/>

Abdol Mahdi’s consecutive foreign trips with the aim of introducing Iraq as a safe country, were accompanied by the division of party votes. The former prime minister of Iraq, who knew that such a situation would shake his position, followed the failed strategy of separating domestic politics from foreign politics.

Separation of issues Domestically, with the aim of winning abroad, Abdul Mahdi’s government faced different challenges. After 180 days have passed since the fourth government of Iraq came into office, Adel Abdul Mahdi announced that 76% of the promises had been fulfilled, but the Iraqi parliament revealed another proposition and, while forming a working group (commission) to review the government’s plans, announced that only 36% of The promises have been fulfilled, none of which were related to public services.

Adel Abdul Mahdi’s political background and understanding of economic issues have always made him respected by different factions. to be Iraqi. The release of internal issues, the wave of destruction that was supported from inside and outside, and the pressure of different groups to achieve their goals, were among the factors that endangered the acceptability and legitimacy of Abdul Mahdi.   

In the political system of Iraq, when a person without the full support of the parties reaches the position of prime minister, he tries to attract opinion. Parties and heads of power turn to solving inter-party or extra-party issues. It seemed, but on the opposite side, some political movements and groups tried to obstruct the Prime Minister and his government. Despite the fact that Adel Abdul Mahdi had noticed the bias of these people from the beginning of his tenure as prime minister, it seemed that he did not pay much attention to resolving or negotiating these issues, because he was well behind the scenes of disruptions in He had knowledge beyond the borders.

Anyway, Iraq’s multilateralism policy was also welcomed by senior Iranian officials in Tehran. But the Trump administration, contrary to the path that Tehran and Baghdad were looking for, turned to increasing tension and “maximum pressure” in order to narrow the circle of Iran’s allies.

In addition, Trump tried to assassinate General Haj Qassem Soleimani in Iraq while reducing Iran’s influence in Iraq. create a split between senior Iranian and Iraqi officials, which was immediately responded to by the Iraqi parliament’s resolution to oblige the American occupying forces to withdraw from Iraqi territory.

Multilateralism; Abdul Mahdi’s government’s strategy to reduce American influence

The Americans’ analysis was that Abdul Mahdi’s prime ministership would make them in subjected to defeat against Iran, who interpreted this action as retaliation for America’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and Baghdad’s non-compliance with the sanctions imposed on Iran.

Moqtada Sadr’s internal pressure on Abdul Mahdi’s government and the request for resignation or holding early elections after the one-year deadline he had given encouraged the demonstrators to raise the level of internal tension.

Meanwhile, the financial support of the United States, England and some Persian Gulf countries to the activists of virtual networks marked a new round of destruction against the government of Abdul Mahdi, which led to the start of nationwide protests.

Abd al-Mahdi, who had refused to accept Washington’s request in order to comply with America’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, tried to create a kind of To activate the space of economic competition between America, China and Germany. Abdul Mahdi’s trip to Germany and France brought many achievements to Iraq. The electricity flow with the German company Siemens practically put this German company in front of the American General Electric Company. The Iraqi people understood that the presence of the American General Electric company for several years did not benefit them, and for this reason, the Iraqi government put the second option, the development of cooperation with the German Siemens company, in its agenda.

After traveling to Germany, Abdul Mahdi went to France and there He signed the “Strategic Roadmap” in the field of military, security and economy. Part of the agreement is related to the start of the work of the Total company in the extraction of oil in the South, which entered into competition with the British Shell company.

Abdul Mahdi’s actions in the last months of his prime ministership were even welcomed by a large part of the Iraqi people, which angered American officials as well. But Abdul Mahdi’s trip to China, which was made with the purpose of attracting capital, made the Americans understand that instead of following the policy of maximum pressure against Iran, Abdul Mahdi’s government has chosen the strategy of minimal American influence in the scene of Iraq’s internal and external equations. In fact, the presence of Adel Abdul Mahdi at the head of the Iraqi government affected all the interests of the United States (and England) so that this time the Americans prepared all the preparations for the fall of Abdul Mahdi’s government.

Abdol Mahdi’s resignation

It was not acceptable for the Americans that not only their choice, but also a person from the faction close to the axis of resistance would get the position of prime minister. Especially since Abdul Mahdi had built the cornerstone of independent foreign policy for Iraq. It was very difficult and unbelievable to digest that Iraq could strengthen its relations with different countries of the Arab world, Turkey, Iran and European countries without attracting the attention of America.

Iraq had recently been freed from the extensive war with terrorism, and going through the development stages that the general Iraqi people wanted, needed enough time. However, the demonstrations of October 2019, which initially showed their peaceful side to Iraq, were supported by Moqtada Sadr and turned violent with the arrival of the United States and Western security agencies.

The Western support of the rioters led to the spread of conflicts among the Iraqi people. The rioting forces supported by the United States began to assassinate and kill the demonstrators until the peaceful demonstrations of the Iraqi people in protest against the performance of their government turned violent and after a few days, they targeted the government’s headquarters. Abd al-Mahdi’s resignation or stay was between bad and worse options, and after 13 controversial and full of events, the fourth government of Iraq will end its work halfway.

Violence, the increase in casualties and the resignation of Adel Abdul Mahdi from the post of Prime Minister, reduced the intensity of the demonstrations, but a few weeks later, at the same time as the assassination of the martyred General Hajj Qassem Soleimani and the martyred Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, the commander of the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi, criticism against It had brought Americans to such an extent that Iraqi political leaders asked people to gather in front of the American embassy on January 25.

Washington after The martyrdom of General Soleimani and the increase in criticism against the United States, Abdul Mahdi ignored the official request for the withdrawal of his troops from Iraq under the pretext of fighting ISIS. At the same time, even Moqtada Sadr, as the most important critic of Abdul Mahdi’s government, stated in an interview with Al-Sharqiya TV channel, referring to the American occupation, “if all the coalition forces, including the United States and England, leave Iraq, you can be sure that our forces will be able to fight against They are ISIS.” 

The resignation of Iraq’s Adel Abdul Mahdi introduced another challenge that after 6 months of absence of the government, Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s presence as the next prime minister

end of message/