Brussels worried about the political chaos after the European elections in France
Compared to the situation in Germany, it can be imagined that, for example, One morning, Friedrich Mertes, the leader of the Christian Democratic Party of Germany, advised his party to form an alliance with the extreme Alternative for Germany party in the next election in order to defeat the left and liberals. In this case, the cries and criticisms in the Christian Democratic Party will be intense, and Mertes will then be forced to resign by the board of directors and the chairmanship the next day. Conservative Republican Christian Democrats in France are in it. The party’s leader, Eric Ciotti, had tried to get his party to join an electoral coalition with the radical right-wing National Assembly (RN) for early elections to the National Assembly on June 30. Despite a firestorm of protest that immediately erupted within the party, Ciotti refused to resign, and he was subsequently expelled from the party.
Unfazed, he appeared in front of the Republican headquarters in Paris on Wednesday morning and demanded entry. Ciotti argued that until the court decides, he is the elected president.
In this situation, it is not only in France that people are shaking their heads because of this political chaos, but Brussels is also worried about this. The most important country is its neighbor. Immediately after the failed Cioti maneuver, the European People’s Party, as an association of Christian Democratic and conservative parties, sent a message to the Republican representatives that if they really unite with Marine Le Pen’s National Community Party, There is no place for them in the ranks of the EPP faction.
Of course, these conditions create difficult conditions for the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as the President of the European Commission, because in the decision-making process in the European Parliament, every A vote is required. But French EPP members immediately assured Manfred Weber (CSU), the leader of this parliamentary faction, that they will remain in the EPP family and will not seek contact with the right wing.
After the surprise announcement of new elections by Emmanuel Macron, The French president and leaving Ciotti aside, the party’s prospects in France have become like an unruly flock of chickens. Candidates must be nominated by the first round of voting on June 30 in France in 577 Republican constituencies. Just one week later, on July 7, the decisive second round of voting will take place. Organizers complain that this creates huge problems for all parties and voter lists cannot be fully organized everywhere in the remaining two weeks. If the election is too disorderly, one should expect challenges and complaints, especially from those who lost. Whether this maneuver by the French president will be effective and whether he can defeat Le Pen’s party and Jordan Bardella, its 28-year-old leading candidate in a direct race, is highly doubtful. In the EU elections, Bardella’s RN achieved the best European election result in its history, winning 31.4% of the vote, more than double Emmanuel Macron’s coalition. Most observers believe that the RN will take the lead in the first election and that voters from other parties will support Macron in the second round.
In past elections, the unspoken threat has always worked that even if the French always They are not satisfied with Macron and his predecessors to vote for the current president instead of accepting Le Pen and his nationalists, and this message has been effective so far. “Pournschelgel”, a French expert, says this time with doubts: I don’t know if this threat will work again because the approval of the current president has reached the lowest level.
Jim Reid, an analyst from Deutsche Bank Also, this maneuver is considered by “Macron” as a “bold bet” and he says in this regard: political uncertainty has especially shaken French banks. Shares in BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole fell between 3.6% and 7.5%.
The economic and political consequences for Europe are huge, as French ministers who still sit in EU councils are now only Temporary officials are present and can rarely make decisions. If the RN wins the election and Macron fails to defend his relative majority in the National Assembly, as president he will have to rely on coexistence with right-wing nationalists, which is likely to weaken his position internationally as well as in Brussels. It paralyzes his policy towards the European Union.
Especially in the midst of this, the situation for Europe is dire because the second part of Europe’s dual leadership in the form of Germany has also come out of the European elections severely damaged. The German federal government, on the other hand, is deeply concerned about European policy issues – be it the design of the Green Deal, agricultural and asylum policy or EU financing through social bonds, more aid from member states or EU tax-collecting sovereignty. There is a difference of opinion.
In the rest of this article, the question is raised, what does this situation mean for the European economy? “Karsten Brzeski”, the chief economist of ING Bank, sees in this situation the danger that member states will refocus on themselves and their national interests, and that large projects that can only be achieved together in Europe – such as the Capital Markets Union and the Green Deal – in
Closer integration of national capital markets should now be the focus of the new Commission’s work to improve financing conditions for European companies. This role has to be played especially when it comes to the goal of climate neutrality.
The fact that investors in Europe now see more risks was evident in the government bond market the day after the election. French, Italian and Greek bond yields rose significantly. Therefore, raising fresh money from the financial market will be much more expensive for these countries. The pressure on the stock markets has already come from Paris.
The extreme party “Marine Le Pen” won with a clear advantage in the European elections in France on Sunday. Bardella, the representative of the European Union from this party, participated as the main candidate of his party. After that, French President Emmanuel Macron, considering the poor performance of the liberal Renaissance party in the European elections, called for new elections. . The first round of parliamentary elections is scheduled to be held on June 30 (July 10). If France’s far-right party wins the parliamentary elections, the 28-year-old Bardella will have the best chance of becoming prime minister. use his presidency.
If this game of Macron does not work, it will be fatal for Germany and Europe. Macron will lose significant power and will no longer be able to easily implement his foreign policy path. It is difficult to imagine a compromise path between Macron, who is friendly with Europe, and Jordan Bardelay, suspicious of this union, who also wants to distance himself from Germany.
| © | Webangah News Hub has translated this news from the source of Tasnim News Agency |
