The challenge of population aging is intensifying in Germany

According to the international group Tasnim News Agency, the German newspaper “Wirtschaftswoche” wrote in an article: The German Institute for Economic Research estimated in 2000 that the country’s population would decrease from 82.5 million in Germany to less than 66 million by 2050. Statisticians at this research institute expected that the Federal Republic would still have a population of approximately 70 million in 2050.

Now the predictions have been reversed. The Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research (BBSR) now predicts that Germany’s population will increase to 85.5 million by 2045. This equates to an increase of about 800,000 people, or 0.9 percent, over 2023. The fact that Germany’s population continues to grow is due to immigration from abroad.

Peter Jakubowski, Head of Spatial and Urban Development at BBSR, says: “Many people come to Germany from many parts of the world for various reasons. will come, which will have a positive effect on the development of the population. According to him, without immigration, Germany’s population would be significantly smaller in 2045 – because there would be far more deaths than births.

However, the challenges of integrating people who They do not come to Germany to work, they will remain in the labor market. For example, politicians from the Union of Christian United Parties criticize that it was wrong to immediately give citizens money to Ukrainian refugees. The employment rate of Ukrainian newcomers since the start of the war has recently been only around 20 percent.

However, even immigration to Germany cannot reverse the fact that the country’s population is aging. . The BBSR expects the number of people of retirement age, that is, those over 67, to increase by 2.2 million nationwide by 2045. This is an increase of almost 14%. Many regions in Bavaria in particular will experience a sharp growth in the number of people of retirement age.

This puts pressure on the labor market, which lacks skilled workers, on the German pension system and thus on contributors who It increases the need for retirees to pay more and more. Across Germany, the number of people of working age, those aged 20 to 66, will fall by two percent by 2045.

Experts have criticized politicians for not taking any major corrective steps to stabilize pension finances. . In this regard, the Economic Advisory Council calls for linking the retirement age with life expectancy.

BBSR points out that population growth at the national level hides large regional differences. While economically strong large cities and their surrounding areas, as well as numerous rural areas, especially in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, continue to grow, the population in structurally weak areas continues to decline.

According to the forecast, the regions of Erzgebirgskreis (Saxony), Greiz and Mansfeld-Südharz will lose more than a fifth of their population by 2045. But it’s not just East Germany that will be affected: parts of northern Hesse, neighboring regions in eastern North Rhine-Westphalia and parts of Saarland will also lose their residents.

It will have consequences for the economy and the quality of people’s lives. The BBSR predicts that in the regions of Mansfeld-Südharz, Greiz, Spree-Neiße and Stendal (Saxony-Anhalt), the number of people of working age will decrease by 30% by 2045. This is in contrast to the efforts to strengthen the economy of these areas. Without workers, it will be difficult for them to succeed.

For actors in structurally weaker cities and regions with ongoing population losses, the provision of diverse and efficient public services, as well as markets, says Jakubowski, head of BBSR. Attractive jobs and housing are increasingly challenging.

This is bad news at a time when the European elections once again showed the divide between city and country, West and East. In less than three months, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia, and shortly after that in Brandenburg. Many people have long felt that equal living conditions do not apply to them.

But Jakubowski also expects problems in Munich, Leipzig, Berlin and Potsdam, where at least ten percent of people in The working age in 2045 will live longer than today. Occupied territories