Challenges facing the Sudanese government to form the second cabinet

, it has been more than a year and a half since Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the current prime minister of Iraq, assumed the helm of the government. In this period of time, crises such as electricity supply, the powers of the federal court, parliament without a president, Sunni parties’ disputes, Kirkuk and Diyali provincial assemblies, oil exports and revenues of the Kurdistan Region, and the call for demonstrations in Al Muthani province are among the crises that test the current government of Iraq.

Electricity crisis

Every year, with the peak of the weather since the end of spring in Iraq, the value of the projects that the government had announced to the people before is revealed. The measures taken by the Sudanese government to pass the hot summer include:

• Extension of gas import contract from Iran for 5 years
• The connection of 300 km from Iraqi soil to the Jordanian power grid, which mainly includes al-Rutbah city of Anbar province.
• The implementation of the project to connect Iraq to the Persian Gulf countries by the end of 2024
• Signing of contracts Supply of electricity and development of power plants and gas fields by Chinese and American companies
• Government supervision over the power outage situation and controlling the costs of generators in parts of the city

> It will take more time.

According to the estimates, the amount of electricity that Iraq needs is about 40 gigawatts. The Persian Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are planning to connect their electricity grid to the south of Iraq, which mainly includes Shiite areas, through Kuwait.

The amount of publicity that took place in this matter created the concern among Iraqi experts and observers that excessive dependence on the power grid of the mentioned countries may lay the groundwork for the domination of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait over southern Iraq. Meanwhile, the entire project that is supposed to connect the electricity of the countries of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the southern provinces of Iraq is about 1800 megawatts, which in practice covers a very small amount of the needs of the Iraqi people.

Apart from these issues, the project to connect Iraq to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is not a new issue.  In the past, some Iraqi officials tried to cut off the import of Iraqi gas from Iran under the same pretext, but in practice, they once again returned to the agreement and extension of the gas import contract from Iran.

The latest news about the electricity connection of the Persian Gulf countries to Iraq is related to the addition of Bandar Faw to this network. In his latest statement, the head of the “Iraq-Persian Gulf Electricity Connection Committee” said: The first stage of Iraq’s electricity connection to the Persian Gulf countries will be the coverage of 600 megawatts of Bandar Faw by Kuwait electricity, which will be put into operation at the end of 2024.

In the meantime, this year, Kuwait has also faced problems in supplying electricity to its people and announced that until the end of the summer, there will be no electricity for 3 hours a day.

Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who is trying hard to make Iraq ready for infrastructure investment, is trying to implement the electricity infrastructure reforms that were carried out by the previous governments. continue what was started.

Federal Court Powers

In recent months the powers The federal court has become a controversial issue for Iraqi political groups. In the constitution, a description of the authority of this court is provided and it is introduced as the highest legal authority and protector of the constitution; But recently, with controversial rulings such as stopping the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, manipulation in the electoral affairs of the region, removing “Mohammed Al-Halbusi” from the presidency of the parliament, etc., the immunity of this court has been questioned by Iraqi politicians.

Disagreements over the authority of the Federal Court went to the point where the Court of Appeals – which even has the jurisdiction to hear and pronounce judgments on the judgments issued by the Federal Court No – by issuing a high-profile ruling, he attacked the federal court and questioned its authority. Hashd al-Shaabi, Iraqi Kurdistan secession referendum, Iraqi Prime Minister, Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Iraqi Kurdistan region, Iraqi resistance, Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani, American country, American Congress, American Senate, “src=”https://newsmedia.tasnimnews. com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1403/04/06/14030406150344120304009410.jpg”/>

Sudanese interim measure to resolve this issue, suspension The bill is the law to determine the powers of the federal court, which he promised to send to the parliament at the beginning of his administration. Or to resolve the dispute between the Federal Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal, in a symbolic meeting, the judges of the two sides will face each other to resolve this issue for the time being.

Parliament without a Speaker and Sunni parties fighting

Mohsen al-Mandlawi, the first vice-speaker of the parliament, has been in the chair for almost 7 months after the removal of Mohammad al-Halboosi, the former speaker of the Iraqi parliament. is leaning The appointment of “Al-Mandlawi” to the presidency seat has brought protests from the Sunni representatives, but anyway, this lack of understanding on an option by the Sunni parties is the most important reason for the vacancy of the seat, which is considered the quota of Iraqi Sunnis.

In the latest changes in the seat of the parliament chairman, there were splits from the Tohad party led by al-Halbousi, which previously held the majority of Sunni seats in the parliament, after These developments, this party lost a significant part of its bargaining power in the parliament.

On the other side of the square, during the Iraqi holidays On the occasion of Eid al-Adha, “Khamis Al-Khanjar”, the head of the Siadah party, contacted the leaders of the Sunni parties, including al-Halbousi, and asked them to prepare the ground for the election of the speaker of the parliament by reuniting and forming a Sunni majority coalition in the parliament.

Recent developments regarding the seat of the Speaker of the Parliament are interpreted in line with the possible change of the American strategy towards Iraq. It seems that Iraqi Sunnis have decided to form a coalition before Tracy Jacobsen, the possible American ambassador, arrives in Baghdad.

In the meantime, the Prime Minister of Iraq has realized that getting into Sunni-Sunni differences is a matter of honor and any intervention in this matter may jeopardize the unity list that he plans to form for the 2025 parliamentary elections. Therefore, Sudan has adopted a silent position against this issue.

Kirkuk and Diyali Provincial Assemblies

Unlike Sudani’s avoidance of involvement in the Sunni House’s disputes over the position of the Speaker of the Parliament, he has become the main actor in resolving the disputes of the Kirkuk Provincial Assembly, and in Diyala Province, he has become a mediating actor between “Nuri Al-Maliki” and “Hadi Al-Ameri”. /p>

The dispute in these provinces is over the distribution of positions such as the Speaker of the Provincial Assembly, Governor and other provincial positions.

Kirkuk Provincial Council has 16 seats, 7 seats for Kurds, 6 seats for Sunni Arabs, 2 seats for Turkmen and one seat for Christians. 9 votes are required to form a local government in this province. The dispute that has occupied the interested parties for nearly 7 months in this process is the alliance of the Turkmens with the Sunnis, and the Christians with the Kurds to divide the provincial parliament into two blocs with at least 8 votes.

Since the 2017 illegal referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan was held in Kirkuk and the majority of the population of this oil-rich province is made up of Kurds, the case of forming a local government in this region is facing many sensitivities. . The concern of the Iraqi government is that if the provincial assembly gives Kirkuk to the Kurds, the separatist movement among the Iraqi Kurds will once again strengthen.

Accordingly The Prime Minister of Iraq is trying to establish a win-win equation between the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds in order to win the opinion of the parties of the dispute, considering the elections next year.

Regarding Diyala province, the difference is different. In this province, due to the dominance of sectarian and tribal thinking and the widespread presence of weapons among the residents, there is a three-way dispute between the current governor from the “Bani Tamim” tribe, Hadi Al-Ameri from the “Badr Organization” and Nouri al-Maliki from the “Government of Law”.

Diyali province is one of the provinces where a mixed population of Sunnis and Shiites and a smaller number of Kurds live, which makes the transition from this crisis difficult and unbearable. Farsa disguises.

Sudanese is waiting for the coalition of Hadi Al-Amiri and Nouri al-Maliki. If this issue does not come to a conclusion, there will be two scenarios in the future of Diyala province: 1. Sudanese controls the “Bani Tamim” tribe and does not allow them to create chaos despite having weapons, so that the Sunni parties of Siyedah and Tadgh together with the Shiites and Patriotic Party of Kurdistan (11 seats) reach a consensus against the current governor’s coalition (Diyaltana coalition with 4 seats out of 15 total). The scenario is considered a black prospect for Sudan.

Oil exports and revenues of the Kurdistan Region

This issue was enough to put the Sudanese government into the first tough test. Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, who knew that the export of oil from the region and its income going to the treasury of Erbil would create unprecedented problems with the federal government, instead of fighting with the region, he tried to overcome the obstacles and challenges that cause the salary of the employees of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to be delayed. It should be resolved as soon as possible.

Sudanese, who knew that the oil of the region is being smuggled through other crossings, and his government has the possibility of receiving the full income from the sale of Kurdistan’s oil. No, he fell short of his position to confront Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, so that after delaying the salaries of Kurdistan region employees for several months, he committed to pay the salaries of employees of the region in a regular and organized manner to the treasury of Erbil.

Call Demonstrations of al-Muthanna province

Al-Muthanna province, located in the south of Iraq and bordering Saudi Arabia, is the poorest among other Iraqi regions. And it is considered the most deprived province. In recent weeks, Seyed Hamid Elyasri, the commander of the Ansar Marjeit brigade in Al-Hashd al-Shaabi, who has repeatedly attacked Shia parties, in a strong speech, set a five-day deadline for the government to deal with the affairs of Al-Muthani province. In one of his speeches, “Eliasari” demanded to send a military governor to Al-Muthani province so that affairs can be managed in a different way. “Hamid Eliasri” became controversial and realizing that Al-Muthani province is considered the poorest and most deprived province, he took quick measures to improve things. A few days later, the Prime Minister of Iraq personally invited influential people in the community of Al-Muthani Province, led by “Sayed Hamid Elyasri” to Baghdad and offered promises and solutions for the issues they raised.

After this Sudanese plan, the invitation given by “Yasri” was canceled. Of course, just a few days later, Sudani requested the council of al-Muthani province to change the governor who belongs to the “Fazileh Party”.

It seems that the Sudanese negotiations with a delegation from al-Muthani province to Baghdad were only a temporary solution to overcome the challenge of the rising protests in the southern provinces.

It should not be He ignored the fact that Mohammad Shia al-Sudani became the prime minister at a time when he did not benefit from the support of the Shia majority that entered the parliament (Sadr stream). Al-Sudani’s entry into the position of prime minister opened the door to differences between him and Mohammad Al-Halbousi, who was able to win the Sunni party in the 2021 parliamentary elections.

Prime Minister Currently, he is trying to attract the opinion of the Kurds by creating a consensus. On the other hand, Moqtada Sadr has officially and publicly declared his opposition to the Sudanese government through the statements he issued. Al-Halbousi has not yet officially lined up against the prime minister, but in the private circles of Iraq, the difference between the two over power cannot be hidden.

On the other hand, recently sources talk about Sudani’s gradual distancing from Nouri al-Maliki and Qais al-Khazali. Some believe that if the Sudanese government moves towards confrontation with the parties close to the resistance with the aim of relative interaction with the United States, it may put the Iraqi prime minister into a serious challenge and face the same fate as the previous prime ministers of Iraq during the formation of the second cabinet. /p>

Since 2014, when Nouri al-Maliki’s second government ended, Iraq has experienced single-term and even half-term prime ministers. In the meantime, the one and a half year performance of Mohammad Shia Sudani has been at least an acceptable performance in the field of maintaining stability and security inside and establishing good relations with the countries of the region.

The war in Gaza, the adjustment of relations with neighboring countries, the increase in public favor and understanding with other parties, will determine the political destiny of Sudan in the future, whether he will be able to break the spell that he has faced since 2014 in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Will there be a meeting of Iraqi ministers or not?

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