positive signal; Has the ice between Damascus and Ankara melted?
Mehr News Agency, International Group: During the last 4 years, despite the reduction of tensions between most governments in the region, Still, the normalization of Ankara-Damascus relations has not reached its final destination as a complicated puzzle. The existence of challenges such as Turkey’s support for armed opposition, the violation of Syria’s territorial integrity under the pretext of fighting terrorism, the Syrian refugee crisis, the non-acceptance of Security Council Resolution 2254 and finally the US Treasury Department’s Caesar sanctions have caused the two countries to have serious doubts in the form of negotiations. Moscow has come forward and taken steps to resume relations.
Turkey’s 2023 elections and the demand of the public opinion of this country to improve relations with Damascus and solve the issue of refugees caused the two sides to take serious steps in the form of political-security negotiations, but The set of above factors caused these efforts to fail so far. Now, after almost a year has passed, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar Assad are sending “positive pulses” and talking about their desire to resume relations and even meet each other bilaterally. In the continuation of this analytical report, we will try to analyze the most important obstacles facing the two countries to normalize relations.
in the name of fighting terrorism; to the development of neo-Ottomanism
With the entry of the Russian air force into the Syrian battle in 2015 and changing the field equations in favor of the resistance axis, Turkey has fundamentally revised its policies towards Syria. Prioritizing security issues, Erdogan’s government abandoned the policy of “subversion” and demanded to confront groups such as the Syrian Democratic Forces and the YPG in order to prevent the formation of Kurdish local authority in the northern regions of Syria. Of course, this new policy has faced some opposition, especially from Washington.
However, Turkey started encroaching deep into Syrian territory in the name of confronting Kurdish terrorism. During four operations, “Euphrates Shield”, “Olive Branch”, “Peace Spring” and “Spring Shield”, Ankara was able to stabilize the position of Syrian military forces and armed opposition on the banks of the Euphrates River, Afrin, Tel Abyez, Ras Al Ain and Idlib. Before the start of the fifth operation of the Turkish army to attack Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo and Manbij, the new Sultan of Anatolia faced the united opposition of Syria, Iran, Russia and the United States. The opposition of influential foreign powers caused the cancellation of Turkish military operations in the northern regions of Syria. The aim of the fifth operation in the northern regions of Syria was to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the YPG and push them back. The success of this operation could lead to Turkey’s domination of northwestern Syria and the completion of the process of pushing back the Kurdish forces to the east of the Euphrates River.
Before the start of the fifth operation, during the meeting of Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the supreme leader of the revolution in July 1401, he rejected the Turkish military operation in northern Syria and said: “This The work is definitely to the detriment of Syria, to the detriment of Turkey, and to the detriment of the region, and the political action expected by the Syrian government will not be realized either.” Referring to the issue of terrorist groups, he reminded the President of Turkey: “Terrorism must be opposed, but a military attack in Syria will benefit the terrorists.” Of course, terrorists are not limited to a specific group.”
Supporting armed opponents and terrorist groups
The beginning of the internal war in Syria and the formation of the first armed groups and opposition parties caused Turkey to become the location of most of the groups opposed to the Damascus regime. Currently, the main headquarters of the Syrian opposition, such as Tahrir al-Sham, Majlis-e-Islami, Free Army, etc., is located in the city of Istanbul. In addition, based on the “Pan-Turkism” strategy, Ankara seeks to increase the share of these people in the political future of Turkey by supporting the rights of the Syrian Turkmen as the third largest ethnic group in Syria.
In the northern regions of Syria, including Idlib, western Aleppo, parts of Latakia and Hama, nearly 4.5 million Syrians live under the rule of self-governing governments of the opposition and other terrorist groups. . In cities administered by the Turkish government, such as Tal Abid and Jarablus, state companies and Turkish cement companies are only engaged in providing essential services such as water supply, health and education. In places like Afrin, despite the existence of local councils, the main authority rests with the governors appointed by Ankara.
With the start of peace talks between the Syrian government and Turkey and its resumption in recent months, leaders and people living in areas occupied by the Syrian opposition, such as Abu Mohammad Jolani With a critical tone towards Ankara’s new policy, they demanded that Erdogan withdraw from political negotiations with the legitimate government of Syria and intensify military aid to the opposition forces. In January 2023, Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu met with Badr Jamous, the head of the Syrian Negotiations Commission, Salem al-Maslat, the leader of the opposition coalition, and Abdulrahman Mustafa, the Prime Minister of the Syrian Interim Government, and discussed and consulted on the issue of fighting terrorism, Syrian refugees, and peace talks. . According to Turkish sources, he apparently assured the opposition forces in this meeting that Ankara will not stop supporting them and is looking for a solution based on Resolution 2254.
Refugees; Intensification of public opinion pressure against Erdoğan
According to the statistics published by the “Statista” center, until February 2024, there were nearly 3.15 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, of which more than 330,000 They succeeded in receiving Turkish citizenship due to their special economic, political or social capabilities. Despite the positive attitude of the government, 83% of ordinary people are against the long-term presence of Syria in their country. In the eyes of the government, the attraction of Syrian immigrants has led to an increase in wages, foreign investments, and regional connections, and can greatly contribute to Turkey’s economy. According to statistics published by official sources regarding small and medium-sized companies, with the beginning of the Syrian crisis, many Syrian businesses migrated to Turkey and injected nearly 500 million dollars into the economy of the northern neighbor.
Dispersion map of Syrian refugees in Turkey
Furthermore, by using the refugee card, Erdogan intends to put pressure on the European Union and ask for financial assistance. For example, in July 2017, during the “G-20” summit, Erdoğan called for more help from Brussels to Ankara by factoring in the cost of 30 billion dollars to maintain migrants. Adopting such a policy allowed Turkey to receive nearly 7 billion dollars in financial aid from the Europeans in 2018. In addition, citing the exceptional situation of Syrian refugees, Ankara calls for an increase in financial aid from the UN agencies. Adopting such a policy will help the Turks to increase their “soft power” among Syrian refugees and benefit from international aid.
Bahre Sakhan
It took nearly 13 years for Erdogan to reconsider his policies and change his tone from threatening “overthrow” to “Mr. Assad” literature. Now, after establishing Assad’s position as the legitimate president of Syria, Ankara has changed its tone in order not to lag behind other regional-international competitors in the era of “reconstruction” and seeks to improve relations with its southern neighbor. Turkish experts believe that Erdogan has “changed his outlook” once again and is no longer pursuing neo-Ottoman dreams with military-security tools. In the new era, Ankara has no choice but to put aside ideological differences and turn to “political pragmatism” in order to get rid of the increasing inflation, develop exports, solve the refugee crisis and take a strong presence in the Syrian reconstruction process. On the opposite side, Damascus plans to expand the circle of strategic relations with its neighbors in order to completely defeat the American plan to isolate Syria. In the coming weeks, it will be clear to what extent Erdogan and Assad’s political comments will facilitate the resumption of bilateral relations between Syria and Turkey.
