The global trade trend became positive; Trade reaches 32 thousand billion dollars
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Global forecasts for GDP growth remain around 3 percent for 2024, and the near-term trade outlook is optimistic. If positive trends continue, world trade could reach around $32 trillion in 2024, but it is unlikely to surpass its record level in 2022.
China, India and the United States have been the main drivers of global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 with the increase of exports from China by 9%, India by 7% and the United States by 3%. On the contrary, European exports have not shown growth and African exports have decreased by 5%.
Trade in developing countries and “South-South” import and export (trade between countries and developed regions of the world) increased by about 2% in the first quarter of the year. In comparison, developed countries saw steady imports and a one percent increase in exports. However, on an annual basis, South-South trade has decreased by about 5 percent compared to the first quarter of 2023 with the first quarter of 2024.
Business growth varied considerably across sectors. In the energy sector Jack and products related to artificial intelligence, a sharper increase has been observed. The commercial value of high-performance servers has increased by 25% compared to the first quarter of last year; While the business of other computers and storage units have increased in value by 8%. The value of electric car trade has also grown significantly and increased by about 25%.
Despite the positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is reduced due to potential geopolitical issues and the impact of industrial policies. Geopolitical tensions, rising transportation costs, and emerging industrial policies could alter global trade patterns. This report warns that increased focus on domestic industries and trade restrictions can hinder the growth of international trade.
