What are the power equations and possible conflict scenarios in the southern front of Lebanon?
According to Webangah News quoted by Mehr News Agency, Al-Zitouneh Study Center in a detailed report investigated the escalation of tension on the borders of Lebanon and the Zionist regime and the possibility of an all-out attack by Tel Aviv on Lebanon. And it has examined the scenarios and consequences of this dangerous action that may take place as a result of escaping in front of Tel Aviv leaders.
This report emphasizes that simultaneously with the expansion of tension in the Gaza Strip and the continued aggression of the Zionist regime after 9 month and while there is still no clear horizon for the end of the war, the northern front of the occupied territories has also witnessed unprecedented tensions and has created an erosion front for the occupiers, and the intensity of attacks has increased to a significant level in recent weeks.
Hezbollah of Lebanon has fired various types of missiles towards the occupied territories in recent days and weeks. It caused a fire in a large part of agricultural fields and a significant number of Zionists were killed and wounded in these attacks. Meanwhile, the displacement of tens of thousands of residents of the Zionist settlements in the north continues, and the leaders of the Zionist regime have threatened military operations in southern Lebanon in order to prevent the spread of tension in this region.
In the first part of this report, the factors affecting the decision-making of Tel Aviv’s attack on Lebanon and the priorities of Tel Aviv’s war management We checked and in the following we provide more information about the military equations available on this front.
Third: Hezbollah’s military capabilities and the possibility of the resistance axis joining the war
The threats of the Zionist regime, including Benjamin Netanyahu, are being followed in a situation where this regime is unable to invade Gaza and has no way to carry out its threats in Lebanon.
Also, part of these threats, which are mainly made by Yoaf Gallant and Hartzi Halevi, the Minister of War and the Chief of Staff of the Army, to repair their ruined image as a result of the seventh operation October has become another scandal for the army with the failure of the military operation in Gaza.
On the other hand, the Zionists know very well that there is a long distance between the threat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the implementation of this threat, and most of these threats are for internal consumption and party functions. Political issues are raised in the occupied territories. A significant part of the senior officers of the Zionist regime know that the war in Gaza is much less damaging compared to a possible war against Lebanon, because Hezbollah has many military capabilities and combat facilities, and the air bridge between Iran and this party is open, and this The war on the internal front exposes the Zionist regime to many losses.
In this part of his article, Al-Zitouneh discusses the possible reactions of Lebanon’s Hezbollah after the start of the war and enumerates these reactions in the following cases:
1- Firing more than a thousand missiles daily; Lebanon’s Hezbollah has more than 30,000 Zelzal 1 missiles with a range of 200 kilometers. Fateh 110 missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and Scud missiles are among the other equipment of Hezbollah’s missile fleet.
2- Many cities and regions of the occupied territories will be targeted by missile attacks in a possible future war; These rockets may spread to Tel Aviv as well, which means paralyzing the economy of millions of Zionists.
3- The assembly of Iranian weapons and precision missiles by Hezbollah in Lebanon can cause great damage to the strategic infrastructure of the Zionist regime, especially the energy facilities of this regime.
In the maneuver that the Zionist army held in 2023, in the possible war between Lebanon and the Zionist regime and only during the first 9 days of this hypothetical war, more than 300 Israeli soldiers are killed and 80 strategic buildings of this regime are heavily damaged. This is what the Zionist regime’s army has acknowledged even before the start of the war in Gaza.
5- The Tel Aviv army is currently facing 40,000 Hamas forces, and in the event of a confrontation with Hezbollah, this number will increase to a figure of over It reaches 100 thousand people.
6- Lebanon’s Hezbollah has a large number of anti-tank missiles, which is estimated to be over 4,000. They also have thousands of RPG mortars, which can be a serious challenge for the Zionist regime in the event of a war.
7- Hezbollah has many bombs, some of which weigh one and a half tons and can destroy a tank completely. Also, Hezbollah’s tunnels allow its fighters to move easily.
8- Hezbollah has hundreds of anti-aircraft missiles at its disposal and has proven its ability to monitor the drones of the Zionist regime, including the largest and most prestigious of these drones. is.
This information and statistics show that the Zionist regime will attack Lebanon even if it only fights with Hezbollah. will face unprecedented military challenges; What about the fact that the Lebanese government will also enter the war in any possible attack, and other regional parties of the resistance axis, including Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, may also enter this arena. In this way, the scope of conflicts will be wider and the damages of the Zionist regime will be multiplied.
This is why some theorists of the Zionist regime consider the scenario of war in different fields as the scenario of the Day of Judgment. ; Because it brings many dangers to the Zionist regime.
Fourth: international and regional positions and its impact on the expansion of anti-Lebanon tension
There is no doubt that the tensions between Tel Aviv and Washington as a result of the critical situation of the war in Gaza and the lack of The occupation’s complete submission to the American request to stop the war due to Washington’s electoral reasons, has caused Israel to face difficulties in securing American approval to enter into a new war against Lebanon.
America is most likely not ready for the occupation to enter the war against Lebanon, because this war is probably It does not evaluate an existential war, in addition to the fact that the challenges between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could cause the White House to react negatively to Tel Aviv’s war plan.
Washington, on the other hand, has its own reasons to prevent the spread of tension to the borders of Lebanon, which includes Below is:
1- Military; The occurrence of this war can cause the expansion of attacks on American bases in the region by Iran, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, and this issue may lead to the occurrence of a regional war.
2- economic; The expansion of the Ansarullah movement’s attacks in the Strait of Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea and its definite impact on oil prices.
3- political; Postponing the case of normalizing Saudi relations with the Zionist regime.
All these things will have a negative impact on the process of electing Joe Biden in the next election, however it is possible The military institutions of Tel Aviv and Washington, which show more cohesion than the political institutions, reach specific understandings in the field of attacking Hezbollah, although it seems unlikely that such attacks will not turn into a regional war.
Fifth: possible scenarios
Zionists have no correct assessment of the nature and future of the developments on the northern front and have been surprised in this field. The security and military leaders of this regime claimed that they could manage the war in Gaza, but the war in Gaza proved the invalidity of these hypotheses and assessments. Currently, the military circles close to the Israeli army headquarters claim that they have several plans for how to interact with the increasing challenge in the northern front, but it seems that they are bound to take one of these two scenarios; First: Surrender to Hezbollah’s attacks. Second: entering into an all-out war with Lebanon, the course of which and its end are unpredictable.
Of course, in this context, there may be other scenarios, as a result of the tense situation on the northern front of the Zionist regime, it is possible That doesn’t seem unlikely:
1- The option of limited military operations that involves carrying out some intensive air strikes against some Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon And it is the southern suburb of Beirut, which may be done by claiming to attack military positions and weapons depots and field staff of Hezbollah. The Zionist movement thinks it has the power to carry out this scenario and can tolerate Hezbollah’s reactions in this regard.
2- The all-out war, which in the Zionist military term is known as the Third Lebanon War or the First Northern War, may be the result of the Zionist regime’s all-out attack on Lebanon. take shape The increase of accusations against the cabinet and the army of the Zionist regime by the opposition and public opinion inside the occupied territories regarding the failure against Hezbollah, can push the cabinet towards this costly and very dangerous option.
Of course, the reality is that there are many inhibiting factors that prevent the realization of the war scenario. These factors can be seen in the domestic and foreign arenas and in the political, security, military, and economic dimensions, and have caused the scenario of an all-out war to be faced with a low probability. In addition to the fact that many Zionists consider it suicide for Tel Aviv.
3- Political compromise in the region: in a situation where the northern front of the Zionist regime is on fire as a result of the conflict between Hezbollah and the occupying regime, but the mediators are still working They are negotiating with both sides and without the news of these negotiations leaking to the media, they are trying not to lose control of the situation.
Of course, it seems that success in these negotiations is unlikely as long as the aggression of the Zionist regime continues in Gaza. All international parties have realized this issue, but the occupiers and their supporters are trying to prevent the expansion of their operations by threatening and intimidating Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has caused the erosion of the Zionist regime in the past months and is expected to continue in the future.
4- Stopping the war in Gaza: This magical event can also stop the tension in the northern front of the occupied territories, but it seems that due to the reasons mentioned in this The article does not fit; The Zionist occupiers do not want to stop their aggression. In any case, with the end of the war in Gaza, all fronts will calm down, and the resistance of Iraq and Yemen, together with Lebanon, will stop their anti-Zionist operations. Of course, there is also the possibility that the ceasefire and peace on the Gaza front means Israel’s effort to prepare for the war in Lebanon.
5- Activation of “conflict between wars” policy. The purpose of this policy is to expand the range of terror attacks in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran and to attack control and command centers and weapon and missile warehouses. This scenario is still on the table and may be used more in the future. This scenario makes Lebanon’s Hezbollah not tend towards an all-out war.
Sixth: possible outcomes
It does not seem necessary to realize any of the scenarios raised in the coming days and weeks; Because the Zionist regime has not decided for a single and quick solution on the northern front, in any case, a set of conclusions can be predicted in this regard, some of which are:
1- Continuing the range of tensions and conflicts in the northern front based on the situation in Gaza.
2- Expansion of demands in the occupied territories to eliminate the threats of the northern front.
3- Increasing expansion of developments in the northern front at the political and media levels.
4- Expansion of American and European mediation between Lebanon and the invaders to prevent military tension.
Conclusion
The developments on the southern front of Lebanon bordering the occupied territories continue and neither of the two sides can provide an accurate assessment of the future developments, perhaps the most important reason for this is the It is the regional and international parties in this arena that has caused each of the parties to evaluate their scenarios based on their own interests.
On the one hand, the occupiers have sought to evaluate the options that we proposed, and on the other hand, they are examining the costs and risks of these options based on internal and external political and military factors. , in addition to not being able to receive guarantees regarding the outcome of any possible attack on Lebanon, and they may be stuck in the quagmire they are currently stuck in in the Gaza war.
In general, it can be said that the scenarios weigh heavily towards not expanding the scope of the current war to an all-out war, and although calculated tensions may be on the agenda, but As a result of the erosion of the Zionist army and the level of strength and readiness of Hezbollah and its allies, as well as the unwillingness of the United States and Western currents to start a war on Lebanon’s borders, the range of conflicts will remain the same.
